(27-08-2013, 11:18 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]I suppose they'll need a waiver from SGX to list FCL with less than 10% free float, assuming it's possible...
You always ask the tough questions..
[Image: hattip1.gif]
(27-08-2013, 10:04 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 09:13 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]Finally, the SGX Annc (5 nos.)
specuvestor Wrote:Looks like it is going to be a spinoff and then FNN to participate in FCL placement. Means FNN give away FCL and then use S$1b to buy some back.
The interesting thing is, F&N will subscribe for $1Bil of new FCL shares so that it can give out (all) as Dividend-in-Specie.. ie. F&N biz left with F&B + PP (Printing & Publishing)... no Properties! More details from pg12 of one of the SGX Annc.
Doesn't it the purpose? The most important is TCC continue to own it, in same % of stake, but higher in $ value
Assume Mr. Market value the FCL share in PB of 1 i.e S$5905 mil, then the DIS worth around $4.08 per F&N share owned. (refer to page 6 of the presentation slide below)
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Investor...eID=254081
My previous latest valuation of F&N, after capital distribution of $3.28, was $5.75 base on SOTP. Property segment was valued at $5310 mil i.e. $3.68
Update the model now, with property valued as $5905 mil. The updated valuation of F&N pre-DIS is $6.16
So far so good, and more will come IMO...
(vested)
Current market, possible for FCL PB =1? I think Capitaland is ~0.8 now?
Woah... Opened @ $5.73, +24ct! Vol = 27
(28-08-2013, 08:59 AM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]Current market, possible for FCL PB =1? I think Capitaland is ~0.8 now?
Citydev's PB is 1.2 now...
The model is dynamic, and the numbers plug-in are also dynamic, will be updated regularly.
There are other factors considered e.g. impending REIT, inventory etc, instead of PB alone. PB=1 is for easy of presentation...
(28-08-2013, 10:54 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (28-08-2013, 08:59 AM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]Current market, possible for FCL PB =1? I think Capitaland is ~0.8 now?
Citydev's PB is 1.2 now...
The model is dynamic, and the numbers plug-in are also dynamic, will be updated regularly.
There are other factors considered e.g. impending REIT, inventory etc, instead of PB alone. PB=1 is for easy of presentation...
Thanks! I was lazy and only looked at Capitaland briefly as there're many similarities : Residential Property development, Serviced Apts (via Ascott brand), Office (CCT), Retail (CMT).
For CDL, they're 47% in Hotels by Revenue (18% by PBT) from 1H13 Presentations. maybe when TCC injects their Hotels in, it'll become more similar...
Ok lah... lazy, take 1.2 + 0.8 and average to give 1.0
(27-08-2013, 11:35 PM)swakoo Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 11:18 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]I suppose they'll need a waiver from SGX to list FCL with less than 10% free float, assuming it's possible...
You always ask the tough questions..[Image: hattip1.gif]
IMO, it is unlikely a waiver for basic rule.
More likely is with more info released on the IPO, a solution might be proposed e.g. vendor share sale etc. Let's see whether I am wrong...
(28-08-2013, 11:22 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 11:35 PM)swakoo Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 11:18 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]I suppose they'll need a waiver from SGX to list FCL with less than 10% free float, assuming it's possible...
You always ask the tough questions..[Image: hattip1.gif]
IMO, it is unlikely a waiver for basic rule.
More likely is with more info released on the IPO, a solution might be proposed e.g. vendor share sale etc. Let's see whether I am wrong...
there is no $$ raised on the FCL listing.. it is by the way of introduction...just like how K-Green Trust was listed last time...
(27-08-2013, 10:04 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 09:13 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]Finally, the SGX Annc (5 nos.)
specuvestor Wrote:Looks like it is going to be a spinoff and then FNN to participate in FCL placement. Means FNN give away FCL and then use S$1b to buy some back.
The interesting thing is, F&N will subscribe for $1Bil of new FCL shares so that it can give out (all) as Dividend-in-Specie.. ie. F&N biz left with F&B + PP (Printing & Publishing)... no Properties! More details from pg12 of one of the SGX Annc.
Doesn't it the purpose? The most important is TCC continue to own it, in same % of stake, but higher in $ value
Assume Mr. Market value the FCL share in PB of 1 i.e S$5905 mil, then the DIS worth around $4.08 per F&N share owned. (refer to page 6 of the presentation slide below)
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Investor...eID=254081
My previous latest valuation of F&N, after capital distribution of $3.28, was $5.75 base on SOTP. Property segment was valued at $5310 mil i.e. $3.68
Update the model now, with property valued as $5905 mil. The updated valuation of F&N pre-DIS is $6.16
So far so good, and more will come IMO...
(vested)
You guys didn't quote the whole context of my statement
It also says "Net net FNN is ATM but minorities will benefit as well, alas for the final time"
It's not common that me and CityFarmer agree
but we knew TCC was going to milk FNN for what it is worth. With this ATM being exhausted, ie depleting cash and leveraging up, disposing asset to shrink holding company discount; it is probably time to think of exit strategy
End of the day we are having a good run on what BENEFITS TCC as a whole. Their objective is clear to me: 1) Milk FNN 2) increase FNN & FCL free float while restructuring such that TCC control FCL and ThaiBev FNN 3) delever ThaiBev. I am not sure they are actually minority interest friendly.
(28-08-2013, 11:26 AM)toiletsiao Wrote: [ -> ] (28-08-2013, 11:22 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 11:35 PM)swakoo Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 11:18 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]I suppose they'll need a waiver from SGX to list FCL with less than 10% free float, assuming it's possible...
You always ask the tough questions..[Image: hattip1.gif]
IMO, it is unlikely a waiver for basic rule.
More likely is with more info released on the IPO, a solution might be proposed e.g. vendor share sale etc. Let's see whether I am wrong...
there is no $$ raised on the FCL listing.. it is by the way of introduction...just like how K-Green Trust was listed last time...
It is not the same if this is true:
(27-08-2013, 09:13 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]Finally, the SGX Annc (5 nos.)
The interesting thing is, F&N will subscribe for $1Bil of new FCL shares so that it can give out (all) as Dividend-in-Specie.. ie. F&N biz left with F&B + PP (Printing & Publishing)... no Properties! More details from pg12 of one of the SGX Annc.
(28-08-2013, 11:41 AM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 10:04 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 09:13 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]Finally, the SGX Annc (5 nos.)
specuvestor Wrote:Looks like it is going to be a spinoff and then FNN to participate in FCL placement. Means FNN give away FCL and then use S$1b to buy some back.
The interesting thing is, F&N will subscribe for $1Bil of new FCL shares so that it can give out (all) as Dividend-in-Specie.. ie. F&N biz left with F&B + PP (Printing & Publishing)... no Properties! More details from pg12 of one of the SGX Annc.
Doesn't it the purpose? The most important is TCC continue to own it, in same % of stake, but higher in $ value
Assume Mr. Market value the FCL share in PB of 1 i.e S$5905 mil, then the DIS worth around $4.08 per F&N share owned. (refer to page 6 of the presentation slide below)
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Investor...eID=254081
My previous latest valuation of F&N, after capital distribution of $3.28, was $5.75 base on SOTP. Property segment was valued at $5310 mil i.e. $3.68
Update the model now, with property valued as $5905 mil. The updated valuation of F&N pre-DIS is $6.16
So far so good, and more will come IMO...
(vested)
You guys didn't quote the whole context of my statement It also says "Net net FNN is ATM but minorities will benefit as well, alas for the final time"
It's not common taht me and CityFarmer agree but we knew TCC was going to milk FNN for what it is worth. With this ATM being exhausted, ie depleting cash and leveraging up, disposing asset to shrink holdiong company discount; it is probably time to think of exit strategy
End of the day we are having a good run on what BENEFITS TCC as a whole. Their objective is clear to me: 1) Milk FNN 2) increase FNN & FCL free float while restructuring such that TCC control FCL and ThaiBev FNN 3) delever ThaiBev. I am not sure they are actually minority interest friendly.
I do agree with the milking (apologies if I seemed to be quoting you out of context but I was focussing on another point on the structure of FCL)... never any doubt at all, right from the beginning... In an earlier age, before it became illegal, it'd have been a quick and easy process to do the 'asset stripping'... and no need to share with MI...
F&N (ex-FCL) remains in a net cash position. Perhaps one last possible round of milking...? Maybe help ThaiBev in the process to delever? eg. Buy over loss making Beer operation to merge with Myanmar Beer for better efficiency,... blah.. blah.. Or, a more massive one, involving all the non-alcoholic beverages + Beer...
IMHO looks like gonna be TCC main focus will be on injecting asset into FCL REIT to monetise, and hang FNN & ThaiBev to dry on leverage as F&B are cashflow biz. I think FNN will be levered further, probably after a shareswap of FNN & FCL between TCC and ThaiBev.
