(11-05-2013, 01:29 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Reviewing the F&N story of mine... previously factored in excess cash of $4 billion, with the rest as additional WC...but a pleasant surprise from Towkay that he needs lesser WC with excess cash of $4.73 billion.
Updated valuation to $9.00-9.50, and hopefully more pleasant surprises from Towkay, and will do updates accordingly...
With advise from guru below, should I end the story soon, or still room for more...? especially another guru GG seems calling the day soon 
Well, probably wait till 18 Jul... 
"The party is not gonna last forever. Is it possible for Cinderella to leave the ball before MN when she's so busy enjoy herself? Worst still, she can't even see any physical clock"
Reference the part in bold, perhaps that goondu was talking about IPOs which has no proven track record and fundamentals which are highly suspicious?
For F&N, I'll be monitoring closely the market reaction next week. If there's a huge over-reaction, it'd be very tempting to take profits. Otherwise, I'll likely follow you to enjoy the show....
In the meantime, I'm still trying to digest the results to see whether to keep for the longer term. Current thoughts are if Capital Reduction is approved and paid out, the theoretical ex price of $5++ to $6+ will actually help to reduce PE and raise Yield significantly... But, the reduction of the Mid-Year dividend from 6ct (last year) to 3.5ct ought to be a concern for longer term hold? Another thing is even after paying out the $4.7Bil from the Capital Reduction exercise, the balance cash at the Company Level of ~$1.2Bil is a lot more than the $156Mil (Sep-12) before the sale of APB. I wonder what they plan to do with this 'excess' cash...
(11-05-2013, 03:23 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ] (11-05-2013, 01:29 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Reviewing the F&N story of mine... previously factored in excess cash of $4 billion, with the rest as additional WC...but a pleasant surprise from Towkay that he needs lesser WC with excess cash of $4.73 billion.
Updated valuation to $9.00-9.50, and hopefully more pleasant surprises from Towkay, and will do updates accordingly...
With advise from guru below, should I end the story soon, or still room for more...? especially another guru GG seems calling the day soon Well, probably wait till 18 Jul...
"The party is not gonna last forever. Is it possible for Cinderella to leave the ball before MN when she's so busy enjoy herself? Worst still, she can't even see any physical clock"
Reference the part in bold, perhaps that goondu was talking about IPOs which has no proven track record and fundamentals which are highly suspicious?
For F&N, I'll be monitoring closely the market reaction next week. If there's a huge over-reaction, it'd be very tempting to take profits. Otherwise, I'll likely follow you to enjoy the show....
In the meantime, I'm still trying to digest the results to see whether to keep for the longer term. Current thoughts are if Capital Reduction is approved and paid out, the theoretical ex price of $5++ to $6+ will actually help to reduce PE and raise Yield significantly... But, the reduction of the Mid-Year dividend from 6ct (last year) to 3.5ct ought to be a concern for longer term hold? Another thing is even after paying out the $4.7Bil from the Capital Reduction exercise, the balance cash at the Company Level of ~$1.2Bil is a lot more than the $156Mil (Sep-12) before the sale of APB. I wonder what they plan to do with this 'excess' cash...
Yes, i do understand it is for IPO initially, but it may valid for others as well. Indeed a good advice which should not be ignored.
I am yet read the detail of financial report, but this report should be scrutinized, and should not be viewed as reference for future performance IMO. I will share my view after go into detail of the report.
Well, the excess cash might be needed for re-structuring or any further corporate actions IMO. At the moment, only the Towkay knows the plan...
(11-05-2013, 03:52 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (11-05-2013, 03:23 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ] (11-05-2013, 01:29 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Reviewing the F&N story of mine... previously factored in excess cash of $4 billion, with the rest as additional WC...but a pleasant surprise from Towkay that he needs lesser WC with excess cash of $4.73 billion.
Updated valuation to $9.00-9.50, and hopefully more pleasant surprises from Towkay, and will do updates accordingly...
With advise from guru below, should I end the story soon, or still room for more...? especially another guru GG seems calling the day soon Well, probably wait till 18 Jul...
"The party is not gonna last forever. Is it possible for Cinderella to leave the ball before MN when she's so busy enjoy herself? Worst still, she can't even see any physical clock"
Reference the part in bold, perhaps that goondu was talking about IPOs which has no proven track record and fundamentals which are highly suspicious?
For F&N, I'll be monitoring closely the market reaction next week. If there's a huge over-reaction, it'd be very tempting to take profits. Otherwise, I'll likely follow you to enjoy the show....
In the meantime, I'm still trying to digest the results to see whether to keep for the longer term. Current thoughts are if Capital Reduction is approved and paid out, the theoretical ex price of $5++ to $6+ will actually help to reduce PE and raise Yield significantly... But, the reduction of the Mid-Year dividend from 6ct (last year) to 3.5ct ought to be a concern for longer term hold? Another thing is even after paying out the $4.7Bil from the Capital Reduction exercise, the balance cash at the Company Level of ~$1.2Bil is a lot more than the $156Mil (Sep-12) before the sale of APB. I wonder what they plan to do with this 'excess' cash...
Yes, i do understand it is for IPO initially, but it may valid for others as well. Indeed a good advice which should not be ignored.
I am yet read the detail of financial report, but this report should be scrutinized, and should not be viewed as reference for future performance IMO. I will share my view after go into detail of the report.
Well, the excess cash might be needed for re-structuring or any further corporate actions IMO. At the moment, only the Towkay knows the plan...
This is a good Godfather. However, he is still water. Agreed that only he knows his gameplan especially after paying top $ to win his prize.
Since he is the main driver, its merely a matter of trust in this Godfather.
GG
Comments on the 1H2013 report
- PAT post-APB for 1H2013 is $190.6 mil, which is -15.6% lower than last year. Further into the detail, it is mainly due to much higher tax, investment impairment provision and much lower EI.
- Investment impairment of $54.6 mil imposed, which is not exist last year. Not sure why? but probably existent of "new CEO" symptom.
It is a one-time expense
- EI includes a $74.4 mil GO related expense, which is one-time.
- Not very sure on the sudden increase of taxes, from $25.5 mil to $70.8 mil? IIRC, capital gain is non-taxable.
- The adjusted PAT post-APB for 1H2013 (exclude the impairment and GO related expenses, but include the additional tax) is $319.6 mil, more than 40% increament from the year before.
- Projected PAT post-APB of FY2013 for valuation is $600 mil. The actual one might be higher, but better be conservative and keeping the valuation at $600 mil PAT
Looking forward for the next surprise...
(vested)
L&T report this morning on F&N
FRASER & NEAVE
Stock Update S$8.88-FNN SP
Fraser & Neave (FNN) reported solid fiscal second
quarter profit before interest and tax of S$163.6
million, up 71% y-o-y. But profit after tax for the
quarter (S$66 million, down 48% y-o-y) was negatively
affected by the one-time charge of S$72 million that
arose from the general cash offer.
Overall, its underlying businesses performed well,
with its property unit posting strong earnings, up 21%
y-o-y, buoyed by strong rental income and progressive
revenue recognition of pre-sold residential projects
in Singapore.
Likewise, its food and beverage unit registered solid
earnings growth, with PBIT increasing twofold, due
to improved demand for its products, better
marketing execution and lower input costs.
An interim dividend of 3.5 cents per share was also
declared.
Following the disposal of its entire interest in Asia
Pacific Breweries (APB) in November 2012 for
S$5.6 billion, FNN announced that its plans to return
approximately 84% of its proceeds (S$4.7 billion) back
to shareholders. This translates to S$3.28 per share.
The remaining S$0.9 billion would be retained,
bringing down FNN’s net gearing to 17.3%, compared
to 27.4% (pre APB sale) in the previous financial year.
Post its S$3.28 per share capital distribution, the net
asset value (NAV) of FNN would correspondingly be
reduced from S$8.80 per share to S$5.52 per share.
The proposed capital distribution is likely to be well
received by the market, providing strong signals that
FNN and its parent company Thai Beverage Pcl
could introduce further restructuring exercises.
Other key catalysts for the stock would include
potential synergistic business opportunities with Thai
Beverage Pcl over the medium to long term.
Important point is the following.
"DBS Vickers raised its target price on F&N to $9.52 from $8.99 and maintained its 'hold' rating, saying it expects limited downside for the share price on the back of the company's proposed cash distribution and stable earnings."
F&N, ThaiBev rise after proposed cash payout
Fraser and Neave shares rose on Monday after the Singapore property and drinks company proposed to distribute $4.73 billion in cash, or $3.28 per share, to shareholders.
The proposed cash payout accounts for around 85% of the $5.6 billion proceeds from selling its 40% stake in Tiger Beer maker Asia Pacific Breweries to Dutch company Heineken NV last year.
F&N shares gained as much as 3.7% to $9.21, the highest since April 22. Shares of Thai Beverage surged as much as 6.4% to a record of $0.67. More than 84 million Thai Beverage shares were traded, 1.6 times the average full-day volume over the past 30 days.
http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-dail...ayout.html
Almost all or all F&N shareholders are happy. Guess who is the happiest?
(13-05-2013, 03:43 PM)Temperament Wrote: [ -> ]Almost all or all F&N shareholders are happy. Guess who is the happiest?
The person must be the one has the highest share i.e. the Towkay. Any price for a right guess?
(13-05-2013, 03:59 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (13-05-2013, 03:43 PM)Temperament Wrote: [ -> ]Almost all or all F&N shareholders are happy. Guess who is the happiest?
The person must be the one has the highest share i.e. the Towkay. Any price for a right guess?
He is toking abt the ex ceo... the 180lots guy
tio bo? uncle Temperament..
(13-05-2013, 03:59 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (13-05-2013, 03:43 PM)Temperament Wrote: [ -> ]Almost all or all F&N shareholders are happy. Guess who is the happiest?
The person must be the one has the highest share i.e. the Towkay. Any price for a right guess?
Does it matter who's happiest?
My investment mindset is that as long as I make $$, I'm happy. Unlike some others, it doesn't bother me even if my profits ended up lower than the brokerage.
If it matters, I doubt that I'll be sharing anything useful in a public forum. Someone else with higher Net Worth than me will likely end up making more money (of course after verifying what I post and making own decision) and be happier as he'd have made more $$ despite putting in lesser work...
(13-05-2013, 04:07 PM)WolfT Wrote: [ -> ] (13-05-2013, 03:59 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (13-05-2013, 03:43 PM)Temperament Wrote: [ -> ]Almost all or all F&N shareholders are happy. Guess who is the happiest?
The person must be the one has the highest share i.e. the Towkay. Any price for a right guess?
He is toking abt the ex ceo... the 180lots guy tio bo? uncle Temperament..
If you're talking abt the ex-Singtel guy, his F&N holdings is very, very tiny compared to what he was holding for Singtel shares.....