ValueBuddies.com : Value Investing Forum - Singapore, Hong Kong, U.S.

(13-05-2013, 09:29 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]

(13-05-2013, 05:37 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]Today is the 1st trading day after the SGX Annc of HY results (div 3.5ct) + Proposal of Capital Reduction ($3.28). For the Capital Reduction, it has to be approved in an EGM (date not fixed), so, there's no 100% certainty.

Today's figures for future reference / studies,

Open @ $9.07
Close @ $9.08, +$0.20
Last done $9.14 @ 5pm
Range : $9.07 to $9.21
Vol : 4,959,000

My guess is prices will be volatile (good for traders) for a while and then likely to trend lower when EGM date is closer. The results of EGM will determine the next price direction. Will be watching and learning till then... In the meantime, I'll maintain radio silence, send myself to the freezer to maintain peace here... Good Luck to all!

IMO, EGM will be held ASAP, probably by end of May. I don't foresee any issue for the approval of EGM, but we never know.

ThaiBev expressed its intention for the EGM resolution, not surprisingly, it will vote for it with its 28.61% shares.

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...B003C2BBA/$file/Vote_Support_FNN_Capital_Reduction.pdf?openelement

I don't think TCC Asset will vote against in the EGM. So a done deal...

Picked-up more below $9 today, while waiting for EGM notification...

(23-05-2013, 05:06 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Picked-up more below $9 today, while waiting for EGM notification...

Can you share why? Is it really a value-buy? i may want too?

(23-05-2013, 05:23 PM)Temperament Wrote: [ -> ]

(23-05-2013, 05:06 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Picked-up more below $9 today, while waiting for EGM notification...

Can you share why? Is it really a value-buy? i may want too?

i believe too much discount on price due to the EGM. In other words, the risk of cash distribution not approved is over-emphasized.

YMMV

(24-05-2013, 08:35 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]

(23-05-2013, 05:23 PM)Temperament Wrote: [ -> ]

(23-05-2013, 05:06 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Picked-up more below $9 today, while waiting for EGM notification...

Can you share why? Is it really a value-buy? i may want too?

i believe too much discount on price due to the EGM. In other words, the risk of cash distribution not approved is over-emphasized.

YMMV

Sorry! May i know what is YMMV? You are buying at $8.96 - $3.28 = $5.68 (ignoring buying fees). Hmm.... maybe i should buy 1 or 2 for long-term too. i missed it before the "tycoon" comes into the picture.

YMMV = your mileage may vary

think this is valuebuddies' "official" sign-off slogan
inspired & started by our fav disciple of graham -- d.o.g.

:-)

(24-05-2013, 09:34 AM)ichew Wrote: [ -> ]YMMV = your mileage may vary

think this is valuebuddies' "official" sign-off slogan
inspired & started by our fav disciple of graham -- d.o.g.

:-)

Thanks!

YMMV == caveat emptor, another common sign-off of d.o.g.

Analyst report from DMG on F&N.

Fraser and Neave (F&N) closed at $8.88 yesterday, capping a month of volatile
trading since its re-listing in mid-April. The stock has recovered some 10% off its
trough of $8.00 but we continue to see upside to the stock price:
1) Cheaper entry than the smart money. The current price represents a 6%
discount to TCC Asset’s dividend-adjusted offer price of SGD 9.43/share for
F&N.
2) Capital reduction exercise of $3.28/share represents 37% of current
stock price. In effect, more than a third of your invested capital will be returned
to you as the capital reduction will in all likelihood be approved given the blessing
of the major shareholder. Post-capital reduction, investors are getting an implied
discount of 37% for F&N’s property portfolio, worth SGD6.8bn.
3) Potential restructuring of F&N offers upside to stock price. It is still early
days into the takeover, but we see likelihood of further restructuring of F&N’s
diverse businesses down the road. F&N’s F&B portfolio could be rolled up with
Thai Bev eventually to create a consumer F&B giant with a pan-Asian network
with diversified streams of income. Meanwhile, F&N’s property portfolio is welldiversified,
spanning hospitality, retail, REIT platforms, and regional property
development. The hospitality assets, modest in scale at present, could benefit
from a spinoff into a REIT together with hospitality assets under the TCC Group.
4) Recent interim results saw broad-based growth for F&N’s businesses,
with PBIT up 37% to SGFD237m. In particular, Myanmar Brewery registered
impressive PBIT growth of 44% on higher sales volume and better product mix
Our fair value of SGD 9.83/share is based on a 10% discount to RNAV of
SGD10.92. BUY. (Goh Han Peng)

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/rese...rs-Dmg.pdf

This analyst probably trusted old friends at wrong levels and hence needed to issue such a report.

All the news for the time being appears to be in the price. When the analyst can't even tell you how F&N will be restructured to create value... I think you better trust yourself that there are better alternatives elsewhere.

Vested
Odd Lots and Cert
GG

(31-05-2013, 09:11 PM)ngcheeki Wrote: [ -> ]Analyst report from DMG on F&N.

Fraser and Neave (F&N) closed at $8.88 yesterday, capping a month of volatile
trading since its re-listing in mid-April. The stock has recovered some 10% off its
trough of $8.00 but we continue to see upside to the stock price:
1) Cheaper entry than the smart money. The current price represents a 6%
discount to TCC Asset’s dividend-adjusted offer price of SGD 9.43/share for
F&N.
2) Capital reduction exercise of $3.28/share represents 37% of current
stock price. In effect, more than a third of your invested capital will be returned
to you as the capital reduction will in all likelihood be approved given the blessing
of the major shareholder. Post-capital reduction, investors are getting an implied
discount of 37% for F&N’s property portfolio, worth SGD6.8bn.
3) Potential restructuring of F&N offers upside to stock price. It is still early
days into the takeover, but we see likelihood of further restructuring of F&N’s
diverse businesses down the road. F&N’s F&B portfolio could be rolled up with
Thai Bev eventually to create a consumer F&B giant with a pan-Asian network
with diversified streams of income. Meanwhile, F&N’s property portfolio is welldiversified,
spanning hospitality, retail, REIT platforms, and regional property
development. The hospitality assets, modest in scale at present, could benefit
from a spinoff into a REIT together with hospitality assets under the TCC Group.
4) Recent interim results saw broad-based growth for F&N’s businesses,
with PBIT up 37% to SGFD237m. In particular, Myanmar Brewery registered
impressive PBIT growth of 44% on higher sales volume and better product mix
Our fair value of SGD 9.83/share is based on a 10% discount to RNAV of
SGD10.92. BUY. (Goh Han Peng)

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/rese...rs-Dmg.pdf