(21-10-2015, 08:34 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Be a survival, and remains in a good shape, in a down-cycle, is the precursor, of many good years ahead in up cycle, right?
I reckon, nobody doubt, the company will survive and remain in good, if not better shape amid the current storm. Let's see how it perform, after the storm. 
(vested as core investment)
I think due to the lack of depth on sgx, many investors have under-estimated the deep impact of the ongoing economic typhoon on the limited choices on SGX.
As many good companies have been delisted and the lack of quality replacement has resulted in such complacency IMHO.
GG
(21-10-2015, 08:37 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ] (21-10-2015, 08:34 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Be a survival, and remains in a good shape, in a down-cycle, is the precursor, of many good years ahead in up cycle, right?
I reckon, nobody doubt, the company will survive and remain in good, if not better shape amid the current storm. Let's see how it perform, after the storm.
(vested as core investment)
I think due to the lack of depth on sgx, many investors have under-estimated the deep impact of the ongoing economic typhoon on the limited choices on SGX.
As many good companies have been delisted and the lack of quality replacement has resulted in such complacency IMHO.
GG
I reckon, I have analysed the company, with its non-SGX listed peers and competitors as well. Any other better replacement you can suggest, either in SGX or non-SGX for the company?
(21-10-2015, 08:50 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (21-10-2015, 08:37 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ] (21-10-2015, 08:34 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Be a survival, and remains in a good shape, in a down-cycle, is the precursor, of many good years ahead in up cycle, right?
I reckon, nobody doubt, the company will survive and remain in good, if not better shape amid the current storm. Let's see how it perform, after the storm.
(vested as core investment)
I think due to the lack of depth on sgx, many investors have under-estimated the deep impact of the ongoing economic typhoon on the limited choices on SGX.
As many good companies have been delisted and the lack of quality replacement has resulted in such complacency IMHO.
GG
I reckon, I have analysed the company, with its non-SGX listed peers and competitors as well. Any other better replacement you can suggest, either in SGX or non-SGX for the company?
My strategy has been loud and clear...
I won't sink a cent into the O&G sector now...
The only bet on survivors for the initial upturn are established E&P players listed on established commodity based exchanges on US, ASX and maybe Toronto.
Woodside is a clear name I can think of listed on ASX as they have started their prowl with its low ball bid for Oil Search as they positioned for a strategic upturn over time.
My experience tells me that the journey in the dark tunnel has just began for many of the Asean based O&G plays.
YMMV
I see. BTW, YZJ isn't a O&G stock, but in shipbuilding.
(21-10-2015, 09:07 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]I see. BTW, YZJ isn't a O&G stock, but in shipbuilding.
I have said before and if you don't mind a broken recorder... the O&G players will return to the roots to compete with them to cover overheads when times are tough...
Japanese and S Korean yards with their cheaper currencies and traditional high quality track record are also eager to get back into the game...
Competition is extreme especially when business is shrinking so fast...
As a capital allocator, we have it easier as its our choice to allocate or not.
To kaypoh, I think both are right.
There is no doubt Engineering and equipment companies of Oand G sector Defintely can build ships too. Think Keppel and Sembmarine.
It is harsh competition in a shrinking pie.
But YZJ does has something in it that I think will do better than just "survive".
First, YZJ has emerge top in terms of competition within China, only recently has it has margin squeezed, before that it was 20%.
When more players join the sector, the margin is going to squeeze further, but will YZJ lose in this cut throat competition is not so clear cut. China Cost advantage is still there and steel price is in YZJ favor.
When the upcycle comes, I agree it will be even better. But is the current price accounting for the upturn already or is it accounting for downturn.
No vested, freck out during last year Court case against it by DEBTOR and watching and waiting .. ZZzzz
(22-10-2015, 05:32 PM)Greenrookie Wrote: [ -> ]To kaypoh, I think both are right.
There is no doubt Engineering and equipment companies of Oand G sector Defintely can build ships too. Think Keppel and Sembmarine.
It is harsh competition in a shrinking pie.
But YZJ does has something in it that I think will do better than just "survive".
First, YZJ has emerge top in terms of competition within China, only recently has it has margin squeezed, before that it was 20%.
When more players join the sector, the margin is going to squeeze further, but will YZJ lose in this cut throat competition is not so clear cut. China Cost advantage is still there and steel price is in YZJ favor.
When the upcycle comes, I agree it will be even better. But is the current price accounting for the upturn already or is it accounting for downturn.
No vested, freck out during last year Court case against it by DEBTOR and watching and waiting .. ZZzzz
Steel prices is a global commodity - everyone will stand to benefit.
With rapidly rising labour costs in China - though likely to be a portion of Japan and S Korea, it is quite clear that mgfing businesses in China has to think out of the box as well.
To me, this is a global industry storm. Keppel, Sembmarine and YZJ will survive... its a question of how much they will bleed till the tides turn on a sustainable basis.
I still remember the days when local yards don't have a single O&G project and back then they can still survive and ship conversions and repairs... now and since they have taken on so much of higher value added O&G jobs, conversions and repairs appear to be a distant past.
However, when things come to a head, I m pretty sure that there is always possibility to return to their roots and compete.
Time will reveal all possibilities and in order to survive, everyone will wits out to survive but surely there will be a lot of blood letting.
Be patient as O&G and shipbuilding is a highly cyclical industry and its about covering fixed costs (ie high leverage industry).
Not Vested
GG
The latest update on global shipping market. The down cycle seems longer than most expectations, including Mr. Ren of the company last year AGM. He has started to highlight the longer down cycle, in this year AGM, and recent interviews.
(vested)
Maersk cuts profit outlook due to weak shipping market
23 Oct 2015 14:30
[COPENHAGEN] AP Moller-Maersk said on Friday it downgraded its profit outlook for 2015 by US$0.6 billion to an underlying result of around US$3.4 billion.
The Copenhagen-based shipping and oil conglomerate said market conditions world-wide have been weaker than the group expected. "Particularly the container shipping market deteriorated beyond the group's expectations especially in the latter part of third quarter and October," it said.
REUTERS
Source: Business Times Breaking News
(23-10-2015, 08:13 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]The latest update on global shipping market. The down cycle seems longer than most expectations, including Mr. Ren of the company last year AGM. He has started to highlight the longer down cycle, in this year AGM, and recent interviews.
(vested)
Maersk cuts profit outlook due to weak shipping market
23 Oct 2015 14:30
[COPENHAGEN] AP Moller-Maersk said on Friday it downgraded its profit outlook for 2015 by US$0.6 billion to an underlying result of around US$3.4 billion.
The Copenhagen-based shipping and oil conglomerate said market conditions world-wide have been weaker than the group expected. "Particularly the container shipping market deteriorated beyond the group's expectations especially in the latter part of third quarter and October," it said.
REUTERS
Source: Business Times Breaking News
I have always been saying that shipping cycle is 3 sharp bull years with 7 torturing bear years.
As capital allocator, we always have a choice to skip this sector
Equity investment is likely the supplementary to shipbuilding, after the HTM business. HTM business will diminish soon due to China financial reform.
(vested)
-----------
The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd. (“YZJ” or “the
Company”) wishes to announce that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiangsu New Yangzi Shipbuilding Co.
Ltd (“New Yangzi”) has subscribed for 29.85% and 25% equity interests in the share capital of
Shanghai Chengding New Yangzi Investment Partnership Enterprise (Limited Partnership) (“SCNYI”)
and Shanghai Chengding New Yangzi Investment Management Partnership Enterprise (Limited
Partnership) (“SCNYIM”), in Shanghai city, People’s Republic of China, at a consideration of
RMB600,000,000 and RMB2,500,000 respectively (the “Subscriptions”), thereby making SCNYI and
SCNYIM as associates of the Company.
The core business of SCNYIM is related to those of industrial investments and provision of equity fund
investment management as well as investment advisory services. It is the general partner of SCNYI in
which SCNYIM has 0.4975% equity interest in the share capital of SCNYI.
...
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Announce...eID=376419