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(30-05-2014, 04:13 PM)Greenrookie Wrote: [ -> ]actually the news is already 3 days old.
Hmm... talk about market efficiency, they only realized now?

I strongly believe this sell down are done by the big boy(professional traders).
This is to shake out all the retails investors or other weak traders.
The news was 2 days ago but why the sell down start on fri afternoon, they might have plan the sell down which create panic for weak holders.
Those retails investor or margin account may also need to sell on monday.
For me I will monitor the volume.
The professional will start to accumulate in huge volume at low price which will not be noticed by other ppl.
If you sit down n think.....If everyone sell, who are the buyers?
Cheers!

I removed few of HoHo abusive posts. There is no room for such posts in this forum.

You are entitled to express your view, and be ready be rebutted and to defend your position. But no abusive posts are allowed.

A basic warning was issued, which carries no restriction.

Thanks

Regards
Moderator

(31-05-2014, 02:11 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Indeed I do have a lot of CM Pac. CM Pac has a long track record that withstand the test of times. It is still in firm control of State owned parent that controls a critical national infrastructure - roads. If you do further research on the parent:

http://www.hj.net.cn/en/second.aspx?nodeid=133

CM Pac and the parent is no ordinary Chinese company.

YJZ is another shipyard in China. While it may boast of efficiency that differentiates it from competition, it cannot be viewed as a strategic industry. Hence, in view of the glut in the Chinese yard capacity and the rising costs of production in China, one should be extremely careful in trying to pick a darling within a tough industry.

Having said that, I have no vested interests here and do not claim to have a thorough understanding of YZJ and its competitive advantages. I am merely tapping on my potentially obsolete knowledge and experience of S chip debacle (fortunately apart from some odd lots that had since issued me with worthless share certificates to remind me of the scams, I have been relatively unscathed) to advice caution for many buddies who may be holding on to the slightest hope that YZJ may be different.

YMMV
GG

YZJ is a S-chip, so do CM Pac. CM Pac has a long track record that withstand the test of times, so do YZJ

CM Pac business is a strategic industry, so do YZJ shipbuilding, simply by the financial support of policy banks to shipbuilding sectors, both to SOEs and non-SOEs.

The reasons for YZJ to survive among others can be easily retrieved from YZJ ARs. I wouldn't repeat here.

(vested in YZJ, but not CM Pac, albeit in monitoring list)

(31-05-2014, 01:29 AM)Greenrookie Wrote: [ -> ]...
So, I guess we have 3 scenarios

1) case dismissed after legal challenge or investigation

2) Ren gets away with the alleged illegal profits confiscation and a fine. No criminal prosecution.

3) Ren gets criminal persecution and company is banned from
Involving in HTM trades.

So whether YZJ is a steal or falling knife depends on which is the likely scenario. If it is 1), u get a smart rebound.

2) impact is hard to justify

3) will mean a very severe write down in the company's HtM assets.

Will trading be halt pending the 3 outcomes is anyone guess.

I don't intent to read from 3rd parties news reports. Speculative news reports are in high demand now.

I do focus on direct comments from related parties. May be one article in ST today, which the reporter has directly clarified with YZJ CFO.

(31-05-2014, 05:03 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]

(31-05-2014, 01:29 AM)Greenrookie Wrote: [ -> ]...
So, I guess we have 3 scenarios

1) case dismissed after legal challenge or investigation

2) Ren gets away with the alleged illegal profits confiscation and a fine. No criminal prosecution.

3) Ren gets criminal persecution and company is banned from
Involving in HTM trades.

So whether YZJ is a steal or falling knife depends on which is the likely scenario. If it is 1), u get a smart rebound.

2) impact is hard to justify

3) will mean a very severe write down in the company's HtM assets.

Will trading be halt pending the 3 outcomes is anyone guess.

I don't intent to read from 3rd parties news reports. Speculative news reports are in high demand now.

I do focus on direct comments from related parties. May be one article in ST today, which the reporter has directly clarified with YZJ CFO.

Would you mind posting the article here for the benefit of fellow valuebuddies?

(31-05-2014, 05:26 PM)desmondxyz Wrote: [ -> ]

(31-05-2014, 05:03 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]

(31-05-2014, 01:29 AM)Greenrookie Wrote: [ -> ]...
So, I guess we have 3 scenarios

1) case dismissed after legal challenge or investigation

2) Ren gets away with the alleged illegal profits confiscation and a fine. No criminal prosecution.

3) Ren gets criminal persecution and company is banned from
Involving in HTM trades.

So whether YZJ is a steal or falling knife depends on which is the likely scenario. If it is 1), u get a smart rebound.

2) impact is hard to justify

3) will mean a very severe write down in the company's HtM assets.

Will trading be halt pending the 3 outcomes is anyone guess.

I don't intent to read from 3rd parties news reports. Speculative news reports are in high demand now.

I do focus on direct comments from related parties. May be one article in ST today, which the reporter has directly clarified with YZJ CFO.

Would you mind posting the article here for the benefit of fellow valuebuddies?

The article is posted already posted in earlier thread. I repost it here:

http://www.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2014-...069604.PDF

The scenario is my analysis.

I have misread some of the terms of the announcement of Taijin railway. I will do a paragraph by paragraph translation later when I am free.

My apologies.

Basically, my error, Taixing Liyuan did not sell during the holding period.

It is buying, and misreporting the circumstances leading to the transaction.

My mistake, me bad, I read through it again with KLyn's link. Really found a few points questionable... Will posted later at night, and highlight those points

But one thing is for sure, Ren cannot claim it is his private business. The shares of Tianjin guocheng railway is bought by Taixing liyuan investment co. Taixing liyuan investment got the money to buy the shares through a loan by YZJ ( at 12% interest) if I remembered correctly, guaranteed by Ren. Taixing liyuan is 70% owned by Ren an 30% by Wang Dong. Wang Dong is also Ren men, one of the executive at YzJ too.

(31-05-2014, 05:03 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]

(31-05-2014, 01:29 AM)Greenrookie Wrote: [ -> ]...
So, I guess we have 3 scenarios

1) case dismissed after legal challenge or investigation

2) Ren gets away with the alleged illegal profits confiscation and a fine. No criminal prosecution.

3) Ren gets criminal persecution and company is banned from
Involving in HTM trades.

So whether YZJ is a steal or falling knife depends on which is the likely scenario. If it is 1), u get a smart rebound.

2) impact is hard to justify

3) will mean a very severe write down in the company's HtM assets.

Will trading be halt pending the 3 outcomes is anyone guess.

I don't intent to read from 3rd parties news reports. Speculative news reports are in high demand now.

I do focus on direct comments from related parties. May be one article in ST today, which the reporter has directly clarified with YZJ CFO.

CIMB said in a note to clients that it had spoken to Yangzijiang's chief financial officer, "who is not very alarmed and said that the chairman has a lot of investments in China on a personal basis", and felt that this was still under probe and should not affect Yangzijiang.

The chief financial officer also "doesn't think it is 'that' serious", that Mr Ren will be charged and reprimanded, the CIMB note added.

"We believe there should not be any impact to Yangzijiang's operations but (are) unsure if any of the investments in structured products have similar issues. But for now, none (have been) reported."

The above are extracts. St didn't directly speak to YZJ CFO. UOB KH also posted their comments based on their interpretation of the newswire report.

I used to be an analyst. The way analysts work especially with stocks they have favourable rating is to gradually downgrade based on events that is unfolding otherwise their individual creditability will be at stake and their relationship with the co will be ruined.

I remember the best part of career came when I shot down a Indo backed company that shot to fame during the power crisis in Philippines in the mid 90s. Back then, there was no such efficiency as internet where you can quickly access information. I was lucky that I got in touch with one key person who had access to power produced by power barges (apparently a temporary solution to the crisis back then) and realised that power barges owned by the then darling stock was causing pollution and was ordered to stop.

The darling stock that shot up 10x fell around 50% over few days upon the issue of my SELL Call. Following a angry phone call from the CFO of the company, I no longer have access to the company for update. A year later, when I move on to the buy side as an analyst, the head of research of a foreign broker (who subsequently became a high office politician) even recommended the company on their house's conviction Buy lists. It was quite obvious then that the head was not aware that I was the junior analyst that shot down the darling.

Personally, in view of the dynamic situation here - a rather complicated situation that involves Chinese law and order which none of us here have good understanding let alone interpretation, it is best to let the situation settle before making any moves.

The change in China's leadership last year and the recent anti-corruption drive appears to have some drag on selected people and business in China. I do not have very pleasant experience with Chinese companies apart from very very few of them and hence I am urging extreme caution here.

YMMV
GG

Bro GG, of course they tell you don't be alarmed, how you expect them to shoot their own foot? Around half of yzj net profit came from structured products, this segment is bound for BIG TROUBLE. 50% is alot especially the China govt already wanted to clamp down such illegal lending practice.

(Edited by Moderator)

(31-05-2014, 08:52 PM)HoHo Wrote: [ -> ]Bro GG, of course they tell you don't be alarmed, how you expect them to shoot their own foot? Around half of yzj net profit came from structured products, this segment is bound for BIG TROUBLE. 50% is alot especially the China govt already wanted to clamp down such illegal lending practice.

I don't see the reason for an enlarged font. The validity of the message doesn't depend on its font size.

You are new to our forum, and should respect our norm. One more round, I will do a ban.

Regards
Moderator