(03-06-2014, 11:28 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: [ -> ] (03-06-2014, 11:05 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]I recalled the last blip of share price was due to rumour on Mr. Ren retirement.
Base on his reply in the recent AGM, the messages I got were
- the succession was installed, and Mr. Ren started to do pre-announcement for market response. He talked about it during an interview.
- During the AGM, he did mention briefly on the post-Ren structure. No detail given, but I will speculate that each segments already have their respective successor, and maturing, but not ready for official announcement.
- I will like to speculate further that, each segment might be eventually spun-off with its own CEO, taking Keppel as model.
Well, enough for speculation.
In fact, the point I am making is, the impact on YZJ without Mr. Ren, is not as scaring as one thought, IMO
(vested)
Whether it is scary or not in real contexts, only time will tell. But when the time come, there will be more fearful people on the market than the greedy people, and that would be the best opportunity for the greedy people to buy more if the greedy people do believe that the man who take over will run as what Ren did.
Yes, I agree the Mr. Market response is unpredictable in short term.
The view is more on the actual impact on the company PnL. If the IV of the company doesn't deteriorate without Mr. Ren, Mr. Market will react accordingly over longer term, IMO
I have been checking Google for news on Chairman Ren and Tianjin Guoheng daily, no recent updates in English.
As I can't read Chinese characters, any buddies here find any news in the Chinese media?
(Vested and a fan of Chairman Ren)
It is dangerous to be a fan of anyone to stay objective. Even Buffett have vested interest in some of the things he say about companies
(09-06-2014, 10:22 AM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]It is dangerous to be a fan of anyone to stay objective. Even Buffett have vested interest in some of the things he say about companies
Very true, specuvestor but sometimes you have to back good CEOs with good track record and good values. Especially in this case when the issue is regarding his integrity and not related (maybe minimum exposure) to YZJ's core business.
Dated 5 June 2014 seatrade-global.com
Yangzijiang shipyards to remain ‘highly utilised’ until 2016
Ren Yuanlin, executive chairman of Yangzijiang
By Lee Hong Liang from Singapore
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding’s shipyards will remain highly utilised until the end of 2016 on the back of outstanding orderbook valued at $5.19bn for 125 vessels.
Year-to-date, Yangzijiang has clinched newbuilding orders worth $1.07bn for 26 ships, comprising of three 64,000 dwt dry bulk carriers, 14 units of 82,000 dwt bulk carriers, three 208,000 dwt bulkers, two 1,100 teu container vessels, and four 10,000 teu containerships.
The shipbuilder also has four outstanding options to construct 10,000 teu boxships.
“The group will focus on perfecting the construction of 10,000 teu containerships in the near term, and thereafter setting our sights on larger, more sophisticated vessels such as 14,000 teu containerships and LPG vessels,” said Ren Yuanlin, executive chairman of Yangzijiang.
“Similarly, the group hopes that the jack-up rig will establish our capabilities in the offshore segment, and pave the way for future projects,” Ren said.
Construction on Yangzijiang’s first jack-up rig order is progressing according to scheduled for delivery in mid-2015.
Offshore projects represent the group’s move into a more technically challenging sphere necessary for long term progress, the company said.
Meanwhile, the Chinese yard has remained profitable with a net gain of RMB799.19m ($127.91m) in the first quarter of 2014, up 11% year-on-year. Revenue also rose 24% to RMB3.55bn.
I always believe in investing in the strongest player during the trough of a cyclical industry. And YZJ fits the bill as the most efficient and most well run ship yard in China.
You might not be able to pick gems out of so many stocks but you can always pick the fittest player when you see blood in an industry down turn, especially when it's a cyclical industry.
(Vested)
I do agree YZJ seems to be priced attractively. This is a company who has constantly generated an annual ROE of 15%, yet it is only trading slightly above book and at P/E of 6-7x.
While it is true, the margins for its new ship building contracts are not as high as pre-GFC, i like the idea of the mgmt of starting a logistics arm. As the global economy picks up, its logistic/chartering business will improve as well. Also, it has been deploying cash from its own and low i/r bank loans to very effective use.
Fellas, dont forget YZJ pays 5+% dividend, a solid divi play!
Nice bounce from 1.03 yesterday to 1.06 (HOD) today so far ....
DBS V maintain BUY:
Rough waters but remains on a
steady course
First jackup rig is c.40% completed and on track
for delivery in mid-2015
Healthy order enquiries; in talks for orders for
first semi-submersible and LPG carrier
Attractive risk-reward amid market jitters
BUY on weakness; TP unchanged at S$1.55
Moving up fast the value chain keeps Yangzijiang at the forefront
Steering into offshore. Based on our recent discussions with
management, construction progress of its first jackup rig is well
on track. Steel blocks are being assembled at Taichang yard and
the rig is at the c. 40% completion stage currently. The hull is
expected to be completed by end Aug, which would lift the
completion progress to 55%. While LOIs for 2+2 mid-water
semi-submersibles with PrimePoint have been called off,
Yangzijiang continues to be in active talks with other
prospective clients.
Industry fundamentals remain sound. The ordering
momentum for bulk carriers and containerships tapered off in
May 14 in the face of weakness in the shipping market and
possibly price impasse between shipowners and shipbuilders.
We believe the short term breather is positive for a sustainable
recovery of the shipbuilding industry in the near to medium
term. We remain sanguine on the bulk carrier segment, which is
seeing improving supply/ demand dynamics with a low
orderbook to fleet ratio of 22%. In addition, Yangzijiang is also
moving up the value chain and intends to clinch orders for
LPG/LNG carriers and larger mega containerships, ie 14k/16k
TEUs, which would take Yangzijiang to the next level.
Reiterate BUY; SOTP-based TP unchanged at S$1.55.
Valuations have fallen to an attractive 6x FY14F PE and 1.0x
P/BV following Guoheng’s allegations against Mr Ren. We are
giving this matter the benefit of the doubt given the
seemingly ambiguous motives behind, and Mr Ren’s dismissal
of these allegations. The current share price weakness
presents buying opportunities for investors who believe in the
fundamentals of Yangzijiang.