http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-588-p...#pid117584
Analysts especially the local ones are more like microphones / loud hailers...
Have to think ahead in order to survive the investment game...
GG
(12-08-2015, 08:08 PM)desmondxyz Wrote: [ -> ]YANGZIJIANG: In chairman Ren's own words.....
On shipbuilding orders.
“In 1H15, effective contracts in China fell 80% YoY. Yangzijiang was not spared, with few orders before May. Many Chinese yards focused on dry bulk carriers and thus did not perform. The containership space was more vibrant, but orders were lost to Korean and Japanese players who competed hard on prices. In June, we adjusted our marketing/sales strategy and prioritised the orderbook over profit margins and immediately won orders. But Yangzijiang is not a (South) Korean yard, nor a Japanese yard, nor a Chinese state-owned yard. We will not take loss-making orders to keep the yard busy.”
On property development.
“Entering this market was a strategic error. Exiting it is our correction. Property prices have rebounded recently, but the long-run prospects are negative. Yangzijiang will take this opportunity to exit the business. Funds will be redirected to the shipbuilding business, but potential income growth from property will be sacrificed.”
On Yangzijiang’s ship chartering business.
“This is a supplement, not a main business. Management will not actively expand this segment, and actually looks to dispose assets opportunistically. The concept is that of a “profit reservoir” – buy halfcompleted vessels from distressed yards at scrap-metal prices, complete the vessels and put them in the chartering business for some recurring income before they are eventually sold. In 2Q15, the company sold two such dry bulk carriers to customers.”
On steel prices.
“Steel is now cheaper than cabbages. This cannot go on.”
On offshore fabrication.
“Progress on the jack-up rig is normal, and on track for year-end scheduled delivery. The customer is from the Middle East, so there are no worries on it taking delivery. Yangzijiang has not given up on the offshore business, but under the current oil price environment and with our own current capabilities, we will not expand this business. We are happy we decided to take only one order when the market was hot – now competitors like Shanghai Waigaoqiao (Free Trade Zone Development Co Ltd) (600648 CH, NR) and COSCO (COS SP, NR) are suffering. We will use clean-energy vessels (liquefied natural gas/liquefied petroleum gas carriers) to replace offshore growth.”
On a dual-listing.
“Investment banks have approached us on this topic. The original premise is positive – higher valuations and higher liquidity from dual-listing in Hong Kong or China. However, before we decide to dual-list, we have some considerations: i) a clear use for the cash, which we may not have now, ii) original listing in Singapore was that of a small, old Yangzi yard. We are now a much larger organisation and we may face compliance and regulatory complications, and iii) expected market reception. We will only list at a good price, not for the sake of listing. Just because we have considered dual-listing, does not mean we will take immediate action. For now, we are not moving ahead.”
On held-to-maturity (HTM) assets.
“We are no longer lending to property companies, new customers, or small-/medium-enterprises. The lending book will fall, and so will our borrowings. We have been asked to give a special dividend after liquidating the HTM assets. However, we want to maintain our strong financial position. Banks will only lend to people with money. We want to keep those banking lines open.”
On M&As.
“They are much less attractive today compared to when we considered them in 1H15. Right now, even if you gave us a yard for free, we will not accept it. There will be reasons why they have gone bankrupt. We aim to maintain our profitability.”
To this Yangzijiang CEO Mr Ren Letian added: “Right now, our yard produces vessels of similar quality to Japanese or (South) Korean builds, but our efficiency levels are still lower. We are targeting productivity growth and improvements not in capacity, but in efficiency.”
*Notes from RHB Research's report dated 5 Aug by Lee Yue Jer, CFA
(Vested)
Heard over radio that South Korean yards could be racking up losses of 7bn... global over capacity is a huge concern for gloabl yards...
Deep-Sea Plan Fails, Leaving Korean Shipyards Struggling
Rose Kim Jungah Lee Michael Arnold
July 27, 2015 — 5:00 AM SGT Updated on July 27, 2015 — 2:25 PM SGT
Daewoo ship workers look at the Pazflor floating production, storage and offloading unit at a shipyard in Geoje, South Korea. Photographer: Jean Chung/Bloomberg
The deep-ocean strategy is coming back to bite South Korean shipyards.
Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. and Samsung Heavy Industries Co. -- South Korea’s Big Three shipbuilders -- ventured into offshore oil rigs starting around 2010. The goal was to avoid direct competition with China, where inexpensive labor could churn out low-profit tankers at cheaper rates. With oil prices climbing toward $100 a barrel, offshore rigs seemed like a savvy bet.
Today the strategy seems to have backfired. Struggling with technology and a plunge in oil prices that has discouraged exploration, Korean vessel makers are racking up debt and could show billions of dollars in losses when they report earnings starting Monday. It’s the latest example of difficulties for the global shipbuilding industry, after a glut of vessels and low freight rates have spelled financial trouble for Chinese yards in recent years, prompting them to seek government aid.
The Big Three “excessively competed to win offshore plants to make up the gap caused by falling demand for ships,” Yang Jong Seo, a research fellow at the Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute, a government think-tank, said by telephone. “That excessive competition was their biggest mistake.”
Shares of Samsung Heavy rose 3 percent Monday to 13,900 won in Seoul, while Hyundai Heavy gained 1 percent to 100,500 won. Daewoo Shipbuilding shares fell 1.6 percent to 7,520 won.
Economic Mainstay
Shipbuilding has been central to South Korea’s economy since the 1970s. Ships accounted for 8.5 percent of the country’s total exports through June 20 of this year, up from 7 percent for all of 2014, according to the trade ministry.
Worldwide, the shipbuilding industry is seeing fewer orders as a sluggish global economy and low freight rates discourage ship owners from buying new vessels. Last year, China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Holdings Ltd., once the nation’s biggest shipyard outside government control, was forced to seek financial aid.
This week is a test for the Big Three as they report second-quarter earnings. Analysts forecast the companies will post profits, but shares of the three companies have been plunging on media reports of a challenging quarter.
Samsung Heavy may show a 1 trillion won ($856 million) loss Wednesday, according to EToday. Hyundai Heavy earnings also are due out Wednesday. The two companies declined to comment on their earnings and the impact offshore rigs have had on margins.
Daewoo Ship Earnings
Daewoo Shipbuilding, which moved up its release to Wednesday from Aug. 14, may report a loss as large as 3 trillion won, according to local newsprovider Yonhap Infomax. CEO Jung Sung Leep told employees Daewoo Shipbuilding can probably avoid a debt restructuring but will need to sell assets, cut costs and relocate staff, the company said in a July 20 statement.
In an e-mailed response to Bloomberg on July 24, Daewoo Shipbuilding said it expects a second-quarter loss in large part because of the offshore rig projects, where a lack of experience led to errors of design and process that greatly inflated costs. The company said it would reflect the entire loss in the second quarter.
Daewoo Shipbuilding shares are down 60 percent this year, Samsung Heavy shares have fallen 30 percent and Hyundai Heavy shares are down 13 percent. Korea’s benchmark Kospi index is up 6.5 percent since the start of the year.
Offshore Move
The move into offshore drilling rigs began in earnest around 2010, as the global slowdown and competition from cheaper Chinese companies challenged the Big Three’s traditional business. With oil prices rising and Chinese shipyards unable to build sophisticated rigs, the offshore business seemed to promise higher profits and less competition.
It didn’t work out that way. Crude oil prices collapsed 60 percent from June 2014 to March 2015, damping demand for drilling rigs. What’s more, Korean companies used to working on rig projects at depths of 1,000 meters or less found deep-sea construction more complicated and costly.
“It took more effort than they expected,” KERI’s Yang said. “It turned out to be a bit of a challenge.”
The timeframe to build a rig -- about 40 months, compared to 18 months for a tanker ship -- and the common practice of backloading most payment until delivery has left the companies burning through cash.
Cash Crunch
At Daewoo Shipbuilding, available cash fell to 87.9 billion won in the first quarter of 2015 from 238 billion won a year earlier. Samsung Heavy’s cash position fell to 152.2 billion won in the first quarter from 1.1 trillion just six months earlier.
“I think the current situation is the bottom for the shipbuilders,” Yang said. “South Korean shipbuilders will be able to recover from this slump. They should learn from their mistakes and focus on increasing their technical competitiveness.”
(An earlier version of this story incorrectly reported the date of Samsung Heavy earnings)
(13-08-2015, 08:36 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Heard over radio that South Korean yards could be racking up losses of 7bn... global over capacity is a huge concern for gloabl yards...
Deep-Sea Plan Fails, Leaving Korean Shipyards Struggling
Rose Kim Jungah Lee Michael Arnold
July 27, 2015 — 5:00 AM SGT Updated on July 27, 2015 — 2:25 PM SGT
Daewoo ship workers look at the Pazflor floating production, storage and offloading unit at a shipyard in Geoje, South Korea. Photographer: Jean Chung/Bloomberg
The deep-ocean strategy is coming back to bite South Korean shipyards.
Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. and Samsung Heavy Industries Co. -- South Korea’s Big Three shipbuilders -- ventured into offshore oil rigs starting around 2010. The goal was to avoid direct competition with China, where inexpensive labor could churn out low-profit tankers at cheaper rates. With oil prices climbing toward $100 a barrel, offshore rigs seemed like a savvy bet.
Today the strategy seems to have backfired. Struggling with technology and a plunge in oil prices that has discouraged exploration, Korean vessel makers are racking up debt and could show billions of dollars in losses when they report earnings starting Monday. It’s the latest example of difficulties for the global shipbuilding industry, after a glut of vessels and low freight rates have spelled financial trouble for Chinese yards in recent years, prompting them to seek government aid.
The Big Three “excessively competed to win offshore plants to make up the gap caused by falling demand for ships,” Yang Jong Seo, a research fellow at the Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute, a government think-tank, said by telephone. “That excessive competition was their biggest mistake.”
Shares of Samsung Heavy rose 3 percent Monday to 13,900 won in Seoul, while Hyundai Heavy gained 1 percent to 100,500 won. Daewoo Shipbuilding shares fell 1.6 percent to 7,520 won.
Economic Mainstay
Shipbuilding has been central to South Korea’s economy since the 1970s. Ships accounted for 8.5 percent of the country’s total exports through June 20 of this year, up from 7 percent for all of 2014, according to the trade ministry.
Worldwide, the shipbuilding industry is seeing fewer orders as a sluggish global economy and low freight rates discourage ship owners from buying new vessels. Last year, China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Holdings Ltd., once the nation’s biggest shipyard outside government control, was forced to seek financial aid.
This week is a test for the Big Three as they report second-quarter earnings. Analysts forecast the companies will post profits, but shares of the three companies have been plunging on media reports of a challenging quarter.
Samsung Heavy may show a 1 trillion won ($856 million) loss Wednesday, according to EToday. Hyundai Heavy earnings also are due out Wednesday. The two companies declined to comment on their earnings and the impact offshore rigs have had on margins.
Daewoo Ship Earnings
Daewoo Shipbuilding, which moved up its release to Wednesday from Aug. 14, may report a loss as large as 3 trillion won, according to local newsprovider Yonhap Infomax. CEO Jung Sung Leep told employees Daewoo Shipbuilding can probably avoid a debt restructuring but will need to sell assets, cut costs and relocate staff, the company said in a July 20 statement.
In an e-mailed response to Bloomberg on July 24, Daewoo Shipbuilding said it expects a second-quarter loss in large part because of the offshore rig projects, where a lack of experience led to errors of design and process that greatly inflated costs. The company said it would reflect the entire loss in the second quarter.
Daewoo Shipbuilding shares are down 60 percent this year, Samsung Heavy shares have fallen 30 percent and Hyundai Heavy shares are down 13 percent. Korea’s benchmark Kospi index is up 6.5 percent since the start of the year.
Offshore Move
The move into offshore drilling rigs began in earnest around 2010, as the global slowdown and competition from cheaper Chinese companies challenged the Big Three’s traditional business. With oil prices rising and Chinese shipyards unable to build sophisticated rigs, the offshore business seemed to promise higher profits and less competition.
It didn’t work out that way. Crude oil prices collapsed 60 percent from June 2014 to March 2015, damping demand for drilling rigs. What’s more, Korean companies used to working on rig projects at depths of 1,000 meters or less found deep-sea construction more complicated and costly.
“It took more effort than they expected,” KERI’s Yang said. “It turned out to be a bit of a challenge.”
The timeframe to build a rig -- about 40 months, compared to 18 months for a tanker ship -- and the common practice of backloading most payment until delivery has left the companies burning through cash.
Cash Crunch
At Daewoo Shipbuilding, available cash fell to 87.9 billion won in the first quarter of 2015 from 238 billion won a year earlier. Samsung Heavy’s cash position fell to 152.2 billion won in the first quarter from 1.1 trillion just six months earlier.
“I think the current situation is the bottom for the shipbuilders,” Yang said. “South Korean shipbuilders will be able to recover from this slump. They should learn from their mistakes and focus on increasing their technical competitiveness.”
(An earlier version of this story incorrectly reported the date of Samsung Heavy earnings)
Please note that the loss is mainly due to the venture into offshore oil rigs, fortunately Mr. Ren didn't go too far on this path.....
Another nail in the coffin for the global O&G players...
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business...00320.html
Loss-making shipyards seek massive restructuring drive
2015/08/12 11:47
ReduceEnlargePrint
SEOUL, Aug. 12 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's major shipyards are pushing for large-scale restructuring as they are suffering huge losses, a move that would lead to a massive staff reduction down the road, industry sources said Wednesday.
Heavy Industries Co., Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. and Samsung Heavy Industries Co., the country's top three shipyards, are expected to post a combined 6 trillion won (US$5.1 billion) in losses this year.
They want to cut their executive-level workers by some 30 percent and let go thousands of workers by the end of this year as part of industrywide restructuring efforts, according to the sources.
Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, which logged over 3 trillion won in losses in the second quarter, plans to remove 1,300 workers by offering a voluntary retirement program and urging workers to leave the company by end-August.
Earlier this year, market leader Hyundai Heavy Industries cut 1,300 workers from its payroll. The shipbuilder also reduced its executive-level workers by 31 percent, with 25 additional executives let go last month.
Samsung Heavy Industries, which posted over 1 trillion won in losses during the second quarter, has not decided on specific restructuring plans, but market observers expect it to follow suit with similar efforts, including cutting its executive staff and enforcing voluntary retirement programs.
"Late last year, Hyundai Heavy Industries started the personnel restructuring drive, followed by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering. Samsung Heavy Industries will be no exception," a source close to the matter said.
"This is the first time that the top three shipyards are seeking to reduce their payrolls, and the scale will also be the largest."
(END)
(13-08-2015, 09:02 AM)desmondxyz Wrote: [ -> ] (13-08-2015, 08:36 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Heard over radio that South Korean yards could be racking up losses of 7bn... global over capacity is a huge concern for gloabl yards...
Deep-Sea Plan Fails, Leaving Korean Shipyards Struggling
Rose Kim Jungah Lee Michael Arnold
July 27, 2015 — 5:00 AM SGT Updated on July 27, 2015 — 2:25 PM SGT
Daewoo ship workers look at the Pazflor floating production, storage and offloading unit at a shipyard in Geoje, South Korea. Photographer: Jean Chung/Bloomberg
The deep-ocean strategy is coming back to bite South Korean shipyards.
Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. and Samsung Heavy Industries Co. -- South Korea’s Big Three shipbuilders -- ventured into offshore oil rigs starting around 2010. The goal was to avoid direct competition with China, where inexpensive labor could churn out low-profit tankers at cheaper rates. With oil prices climbing toward $100 a barrel, offshore rigs seemed like a savvy bet.
Today the strategy seems to have backfired. Struggling with technology and a plunge in oil prices that has discouraged exploration, Korean vessel makers are racking up debt and could show billions of dollars in losses when they report earnings starting Monday. It’s the latest example of difficulties for the global shipbuilding industry, after a glut of vessels and low freight rates have spelled financial trouble for Chinese yards in recent years, prompting them to seek government aid.
The Big Three “excessively competed to win offshore plants to make up the gap caused by falling demand for ships,” Yang Jong Seo, a research fellow at the Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute, a government think-tank, said by telephone. “That excessive competition was their biggest mistake.”
Shares of Samsung Heavy rose 3 percent Monday to 13,900 won in Seoul, while Hyundai Heavy gained 1 percent to 100,500 won. Daewoo Shipbuilding shares fell 1.6 percent to 7,520 won.
Economic Mainstay
Shipbuilding has been central to South Korea’s economy since the 1970s. Ships accounted for 8.5 percent of the country’s total exports through June 20 of this year, up from 7 percent for all of 2014, according to the trade ministry.
Worldwide, the shipbuilding industry is seeing fewer orders as a sluggish global economy and low freight rates discourage ship owners from buying new vessels. Last year, China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Holdings Ltd., once the nation’s biggest shipyard outside government control, was forced to seek financial aid.
This week is a test for the Big Three as they report second-quarter earnings. Analysts forecast the companies will post profits, but shares of the three companies have been plunging on media reports of a challenging quarter.
Samsung Heavy may show a 1 trillion won ($856 million) loss Wednesday, according to EToday. Hyundai Heavy earnings also are due out Wednesday. The two companies declined to comment on their earnings and the impact offshore rigs have had on margins.
Daewoo Ship Earnings
Daewoo Shipbuilding, which moved up its release to Wednesday from Aug. 14, may report a loss as large as 3 trillion won, according to local newsprovider Yonhap Infomax. CEO Jung Sung Leep told employees Daewoo Shipbuilding can probably avoid a debt restructuring but will need to sell assets, cut costs and relocate staff, the company said in a July 20 statement.
In an e-mailed response to Bloomberg on July 24, Daewoo Shipbuilding said it expects a second-quarter loss in large part because of the offshore rig projects, where a lack of experience led to errors of design and process that greatly inflated costs. The company said it would reflect the entire loss in the second quarter.
Daewoo Shipbuilding shares are down 60 percent this year, Samsung Heavy shares have fallen 30 percent and Hyundai Heavy shares are down 13 percent. Korea’s benchmark Kospi index is up 6.5 percent since the start of the year.
Offshore Move
The move into offshore drilling rigs began in earnest around 2010, as the global slowdown and competition from cheaper Chinese companies challenged the Big Three’s traditional business. With oil prices rising and Chinese shipyards unable to build sophisticated rigs, the offshore business seemed to promise higher profits and less competition.
It didn’t work out that way. Crude oil prices collapsed 60 percent from June 2014 to March 2015, damping demand for drilling rigs. What’s more, Korean companies used to working on rig projects at depths of 1,000 meters or less found deep-sea construction more complicated and costly.
“It took more effort than they expected,” KERI’s Yang said. “It turned out to be a bit of a challenge.”
The timeframe to build a rig -- about 40 months, compared to 18 months for a tanker ship -- and the common practice of backloading most payment until delivery has left the companies burning through cash.
Cash Crunch
At Daewoo Shipbuilding, available cash fell to 87.9 billion won in the first quarter of 2015 from 238 billion won a year earlier. Samsung Heavy’s cash position fell to 152.2 billion won in the first quarter from 1.1 trillion just six months earlier.
“I think the current situation is the bottom for the shipbuilders,” Yang said. “South Korean shipbuilders will be able to recover from this slump. They should learn from their mistakes and focus on increasing their technical competitiveness.”
(An earlier version of this story incorrectly reported the date of Samsung Heavy earnings)
Please note that the loss is mainly due to the venture into offshore oil rigs, fortunately Mr. Ren didn't go too far on this path.....
If life is so simple then there won't be upgrading for value added and over capacity... South Koreans are reknown shipbuilders and hence when the crunch comes, they can always downgrade back and compete... boom and bust cyclical industry...
(13-08-2015, 09:32 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Another nail in the coffin for the global O&G players...
I reckon we shouldn't tag YZJ as a global O&G player, just because it did one rig project, and no more in the known future
The shipping and O&G sectors are having the down-cycle together, but not necessary so. In fact, lower oil price, should do good for shipping.
(vested)
(13-08-2015, 09:51 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (13-08-2015, 09:32 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Another nail in the coffin for the global O&G players...
I reckon we shouldn't tag YZJ as a global O&G player, just because it did one rig project, and no more in the known future
The shipping and O&G sectors are having the down-cycle together, but not necessary so. In fact, lower oil price, should do good for shipping.
(vested)
When there are no rigs, no support vessels, everyone will just get back to other segments that will provide opportunities to cover fixed costs...
Ship building used to be Japanese and Korean forte and even at some point in time even Singapore yards are building...
Just wait and see... I have seen the transformation and upgrading thru the years... be patient lah...
(13-08-2015, 09:54 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ] (13-08-2015, 09:51 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (13-08-2015, 09:32 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Another nail in the coffin for the global O&G players...
I reckon we shouldn't tag YZJ as a global O&G player, just because it did one rig project, and no more in the known future
The shipping and O&G sectors are having the down-cycle together, but not necessary so. In fact, lower oil price, should do good for shipping.
(vested)
When there are no rigs, no support vessels, everyone will just get back to other segments that will provide opportunities to cover fixed costs...
Ship building used to be Japanese and Korean forte and even at some point in time even Singapore yards are building...
Just wait and see... I have seen the transformation and upgrading thru the years... be patient lah...
Rig building is hot, months ago. As desmondxyz highlighted, YZJ is lucky enough, not to go too deep into it, before the storm, while Korean, Japan, Singapore, and even its own China peers, are deep into it.
(13-08-2015, 10:05 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (13-08-2015, 09:54 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ] (13-08-2015, 09:51 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (13-08-2015, 09:32 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Another nail in the coffin for the global O&G players...
I reckon we shouldn't tag YZJ as a global O&G player, just because it did one rig project, and no more in the known future
The shipping and O&G sectors are having the down-cycle together, but not necessary so. In fact, lower oil price, should do good for shipping.
(vested)
When there are no rigs, no support vessels, everyone will just get back to other segments that will provide opportunities to cover fixed costs...
Ship building used to be Japanese and Korean forte and even at some point in time even Singapore yards are building...
Just wait and see... I have seen the transformation and upgrading thru the years... be patient lah...
Rig building is hot, months ago. As desmondxyz highlighted, YZJ is lucky enough, not to go too deep into it, before the storm, while Korean, Japan, Singapore, and even its own China peers, are deep into it.
If your yard is empty and need to cover fixed costs what would u do as a CEO and COO? Is building ships so difficult when you can build a rig? Morever is the global shipping segment in the pink of health?
Just ask a few hard questions and logical ones and perhaps you will be able to see some light...
YZJ IMHO is a survival but that doesn't mean that it is immune to headwinds facing competition...
(13-08-2015, 10:20 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]If your yard is empty and need to cover fixed costs what would u do as a CEO and COO? Is building ships so difficult when you can build a rig? Morever is the global shipping segment in the pink of health?
Just ask a few hard questions and logical ones and perhaps you will be able to see some light...
YZJ IMHO is a survival but that doesn't mean that it is immune to headwinds facing competition...
The discussion started with a clarification that YZJ isn't an pure O&G play, but it has "evolved" into a separate topic now.
How will CEO do, without sufficient jobs? in YZJ case, it shutdown yard(s), and relocated the resource, to remain focus on margin, over sales.
What so difficult to build ship, when you can do rig? I don't know the exact answer, but I have asked a similar question before to industrial expert. Is it difficult to build aluminium vessel, if you can build bigger ship? The answer is, the process is totally different, and infrastructure also different. It needs significant capex to reconfigure and do the switch economically. I reckon the same may apply to rig vs containership/bulk carrier builders
Having said so, YZJ isn't spared by the storm, but should survive better than those peers went deep into rig-building previously.
(It is definitely not a good answer, any expert to advice further)