(18-01-2016, 09:20 AM)CY09 Wrote: [ -> ]While oil & gas are indeed in a down slump, the issue is the access to credit for companies. Many companies like ezion and ezra have notes and mid term borrowing and that's why they are still in the game.
It's only when such notes mature will we then see difficulties in cash flow and belly up. This leads to downstream issues of job losses where fear will then be felt. As of now, many of our o&G coys are surviving as they have tapped credit on banks, selling of notes and peer to peer lending platforms. Wait for the fear to come
As far as stock market fear is concern, the "fear indicator" isn't from macro economic indexes, IMO. The newsfeed from analysts is the most reliable indicator. Mr. Howard Marks has accessed "market pessimistic" of oil credit market, from analysts/market commentators too.
The "fear" on Keppel Corp, now, is at mid-level. It is a level of "wait-and-see". IMO. Based on shareinvestor.com, more than half of latest analyst rating, are "hold", while buy more than sell. The panic may or may not come, depend on the coming events.
(sharing a view)
(18-01-2016, 09:45 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (18-01-2016, 09:20 AM)CY09 Wrote: [ -> ]While oil & gas are indeed in a down slump, the issue is the access to credit for companies. Many companies like ezion and ezra have notes and mid term borrowing and that's why they are still in the game.
It's only when such notes mature will we then see difficulties in cash flow and belly up. This leads to downstream issues of job losses where fear will then be felt. As of now, many of our o&G coys are surviving as they have tapped credit on banks, selling of notes and peer to peer lending platforms. Wait for the fear to come
As far as stock market fear is concern, the "fear indicator" isn't from macro economic indexes, IMO. The newsfeed from analysts is the most reliable indicator. Mr. Howard Marks has accessed "market pessimistic" of oil credit market, from analysts/market commentators too.
The "fear" on Keppel Corp, now, is at mid-level. It is a level of "wait-and-see". IMO. Based on shareinvestor.com, more than half of latest analyst rating, are "hold", while buy more than sell. The panic may or may not come, depend on the coming events.
(sharing a view)
After waiting for 7 years, I suppose another 7 days or months is just a couple of seconds...
anyone of the view that start of bear market is already here and we are going to see things fall till mid 2017 before moving up again.
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Me!
The evil side of me foresees a deep recession among Asia economies until end 2018. Oil will destabilize countries such as Malaysia and South Korea, slowdown in China and locally, there will be loss of jobs (which will affect property unless Ah gong re-enacts the I "pay 20% of your salary" policy.)
The Biggest Consumer Economy United States is growing. It maybe a lower growth for the world but it is still a growth.
What I see, there's a change in the Oil Industries due to OPEC which artificially inflated Oil Price which gives birth an industry of oil and services that plough on more expensive operations and compensation. Their cost structure is basically not right. The Shale Oil basically broke this "illegal pact".
(18-01-2016, 11:19 AM)Life is a game Wrote: [ -> ]anyone of the view that start of bear market is already here and we are going to see things fall till mid 2017 before moving up again.
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Me too...
If we look at Japan and China the two largest economy in Asia, Japan is sorta sideways, being kept alive by abenomics for now. China on the other hand is definitely imploding. Main trade partners like south korea and taiwan have had pretty bad quarters for exports recently, which probably are a good reflection of China's economic slowdown as it is the key export market for them.
Corporate earnings in asia are mainly down as well. So fundamentally it is all set up for a bear market. The >20% drop in STI can be considered entering bear market territory already.
Nowadays with HFT and quick info flow, it will not take long for things to hit bottom for stocks, probably a month or so. For other asset classes like property, flow on effect from stock will lag half year or so usually. Things could actually rebound in 2H2016 or earlier if USA Fed steps in by announcing reversal of interest rate policy and maybe even QE4. Otherwise carry trade into emerging market will continue to unwind and push asia further into bear market.
(18-01-2016, 09:45 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (18-01-2016, 09:20 AM)CY09 Wrote: [ -> ]While oil & gas are indeed in a down slump, the issue is the access to credit for companies. Many companies like ezion and ezra have notes and mid term borrowing and that's why they are still in the game.
It's only when such notes mature will we then see difficulties in cash flow and belly up. This leads to downstream issues of job losses where fear will then be felt. As of now, many of our o&G coys are surviving as they have tapped credit on banks, selling of notes and peer to peer lending platforms. Wait for the fear to come
As far as stock market fear is concern, the "fear indicator" isn't from macro economic indexes, IMO. The newsfeed from analysts is the most reliable indicator. Mr. Howard Marks has accessed "market pessimistic" of oil credit market, from analysts/market commentators too.
The "fear" on Keppel Corp, now, is at mid-level. It is a level of "wait-and-see". IMO. Based on shareinvestor.com, more than half of latest analyst rating, are "hold", while buy more than sell. The panic may or may not come, depend on the coming events.
(sharing a view)
I would seek to slightly defer - Analysts who don't have their feet sink in (ie. they don't have any of their OWN $ at risk), are not the correct proxies. I would rather look at those who are truly invested in either the long or short side. For example, the sceptics have been proven right this time (finally). These sceptics now sound the loudest and the greediest. A '2nd level' indicator would be the silencing of these sceptics (basically, the new fools in the market are already silenced by now, which itself is a 'first level' indicator)
Another potential signal is Gov intervention. Since the days of Alan "Maestro" Greenspan, markets seem to have depended a lot on Gov's intervention. Sometimes, I don't know whether it works or not - My brain can't figure out the cause and effect of all these complex interactions between supply/demand, economics, Gov intervention, hedge funds....but somehow recently, Markets don't seem to find any bottom unless Gov's intervention comes in.
I am not sure of the day when Gov's intervention doesn't work. but when it does happen 1 day, many people (and me) will be in for a rude shock.
(18-01-2016, 12:02 PM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ] (18-01-2016, 09:45 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]As far as stock market fear is concern, the "fear indicator" isn't from macro economic indexes, IMO. The newsfeed from analysts is the most reliable indicator. Mr. Howard Marks has accessed "market pessimistic" of oil credit market, from analysts/market commentators too.
The "fear" on Keppel Corp, now, is at mid-level. It is a level of "wait-and-see". IMO. Based on shareinvestor.com, more than half of latest analyst rating, are "hold", while buy more than sell. The panic may or may not come, depend on the coming events.
(sharing a view)
I would seek to slightly defer - Analysts who don't have their feet sink in (ie. they don't have any of their OWN $ at risk), are not the correct proxies. I would rather look at those who are truly invested in either the long or short side. For example, the sceptics have been proven right this time (finally). These sceptics now sound the loudest and the greediest. A '2nd level' indicator would be the silencing of these sceptics (basically, the new fools in the market are already silenced by now, which itself is a 'first level' indicator)
Another potential signal is Gov intervention. Since the days of Alan "Maestro" Greenspan, markets seem to have depended a lot on Gov's intervention. Sometimes, I don't know whether it works or not - My brain can't figure out the cause and effect of all these complex interactions between supply/demand, economics, Gov intervention, hedge funds....but somehow recently, Markets don't seem to find any bottom unless Gov's intervention comes in.
I am not sure of the day when Gov's intervention doesn't work. but when it does happen 1 day, many people (and me) will be in for a rude shock.
Non-vested analysts are providing less biased views, aren't they?
How about Abenomics, as example of a failed gov intervention, at least after few years?
(sharing and learning)
IQ / General Knowledge Test
Without using Google or any search engine, do you know what is the cheapest grade of crude trading at?
Answer will be provided in the following page...
(18-01-2016, 04:32 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (18-01-2016, 12:02 PM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ] (18-01-2016, 09:45 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]As far as stock market fear is concern, the "fear indicator" isn't from macro economic indexes, IMO. The newsfeed from analysts is the most reliable indicator. Mr. Howard Marks has accessed "market pessimistic" of oil credit market, from analysts/market commentators too.
The "fear" on Keppel Corp, now, is at mid-level. It is a level of "wait-and-see". IMO. Based on shareinvestor.com, more than half of latest analyst rating, are "hold", while buy more than sell. The panic may or may not come, depend on the coming events.
(sharing a view)
I would seek to slightly defer - Analysts who don't have their feet sink in (ie. they don't have any of their OWN $ at risk), are not the correct proxies. I would rather look at those who are truly invested in either the long or short side. For example, the sceptics have been proven right this time (finally). These sceptics now sound the loudest and the greediest. A '2nd level' indicator would be the silencing of these sceptics (basically, the new fools in the market are already silenced by now, which itself is a 'first level' indicator)
Another potential signal is Gov intervention. Since the days of Alan "Maestro" Greenspan, markets seem to have depended a lot on Gov's intervention. Sometimes, I don't know whether it works or not - My brain can't figure out the cause and effect of all these complex interactions between supply/demand, economics, Gov intervention, hedge funds....but somehow recently, Markets don't seem to find any bottom unless Gov's intervention comes in.
I am not sure of the day when Gov's intervention doesn't work. but when it does happen 1 day, many people (and me) will be in for a rude shock.
Non-vested analysts are providing less biased views, aren't they?
How about Abenomics, as example of a failed gov intervention, at least after few years?
(sharing and learning)
To me, non-vested views are meaningless, regardless of how much bias is in the analysis. It's like someone in New York talking about poverty in Africa.
I would prefer to see the structural engineer talk about the merits/strength of the bridge by making a presentation UNDER the bridge, not in the office.
As humans, all of us generate our view of things through a filter. This filter is the human heuristics (over confidence, fear, hindsight bias etc..).
Views of vested interests are tainted by this filter but
actions don't. I would like to believe the 2nd level thinking investor attempts to correlate the
actions of others to the current situation, rather than views. At least it is less headache (at least for me) than figuring out where oil prices will go. In anyways, there will always be multiple views everywhere and it does feel like capturing views sometimes capture more noise, more than the signal itself.
Abe-san's QE did have a knee-jerk reaction for like 1.5years? Anyways, IIRC, the intervention was not a response to a crisis but more of a way to jump-start the perennial failing heart?