(19-01-2015, 09:34 AM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ]That being said, Pickens doesn't think the latest bust will last all that long. In fact, in December he made a bold call that the price of will be back over $100 per barrel within the next 12 to 18 months. However, before oil can rebound, the price must hit bottom. Pickens, who has seen his share of oil market bottoms over the years, gave investors an important sign to look for that prices are at rock bottom. The sign, he said in a recent social media chat session, is a big drop in the number of operating drilling rigs.
"Watch the rig count"
During the chat, Pickens was asked, "what are the signs you will look for to determine that the oil [market] may be bottoming?" He responded: "too many to list here, but one key factor is [the] number of drilling rigs operated." He later elaborated in the answer to another question:
Watch the rig count. They are falling already. Down 180+ and counting. Will probably go down by 500-600.
Pickens was referring to the U.S. rig count, which is the number of rigs active in drilling new oil and gas wells. His comments suggest that the price of oil will finally stop falling when a sufficient number of rigs are idled. This is because oil rigs are the key to adding new supply to the market, so a significant reduction in the number of rigs should start to contract the current oversupply of petroleum.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/20...rices.aspx
(19-01-2015, 09:34 AM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ]That being said, Pickens doesn't think the latest bust will last all that long. In fact, in December he made a bold call that the price of will be back over $100 per barrel within the next 12 to 18 months. However, before oil can rebound, the price must hit bottom. Pickens, who has seen his share of oil market bottoms over the years, gave investors an important sign to look for that prices are at rock bottom. The sign, he said in a recent social media chat session, is a big drop in the number of operating drilling rigs.
"Watch the rig count"
During the chat, Pickens was asked, "what are the signs you will look for to determine that the oil [market] may be bottoming?" He responded: "too many to list here, but one key factor is [the] number of drilling rigs operated." He later elaborated in the answer to another question:
Watch the rig count. They are falling already. Down 180+ and counting. Will probably go down by 500-600.
Pickens was referring to the U.S. rig count, which is the number of rigs active in drilling new oil and gas wells. His comments suggest that the price of oil will finally stop falling when a sufficient number of rigs are idled. This is because oil rigs are the key to adding new supply to the market, so a significant reduction in the number of rigs should start to contract the current oversupply of petroleum.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/20...rices.aspx
^^As per my post on 16 Jan
In midst of all the talks on low breakeven prices for US drilling looks like Pioneer is actually the stock to watch: "We can expect to see more announcements of early rig contract terminations, as oil drillers would rather pay the fee than lose big money on an unprofitable well"
Actions speak louder than words. For sure Eagles Ford and Bakken should still be producing but the other 5 major regions as defined by EIA could be hit hard and the aggregate production IMHO will plateau soon within 3 months
From Capex cut to Opex cut, the impact has propagated further down the supply chains...
After slashing capex, Petronas plans up to 30% cut in opex
PETALING JAYA: Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) is looking to make cuts in its operating expenditure (opex) by between 25% and 30% to preserve its profitablity as crude oil prices continue to tumble.
Sources said that the national oil company was reviewing its spending and was in the process of identifying where cuts could be made. Projects it has committed to from last year and in its budget are likely to continue.
...
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busin...?style=biz
(11-01-2015, 10:21 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]I would think shale oil production will peak in 1Q, coupled with possible financial distress, to start declining in 2Q. Not too long a time to wait and see
(19-01-2015, 10:52 AM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]Actions speak louder than words. For sure Eagles Ford and Bakken should still be producing but the other 5 major regions as defined by EIA could be hit hard and the aggregate production IMHO will plateau soon within 3 months
Is it just me or do I detect a subtle shift in posture?
In my dictionary, the difference between peak and plateau is rather substantial.
third word for you: inflection. Go figure
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflectionpoint.asp
PS besides the fundamental reasoning, there are reasons why bear markets are generally thrice the velocity of bull markets
Spot oil has gone lower low but oil stocks generally have not. Mr Market is already talking
(19-01-2015, 03:57 PM)greentea Wrote: [ -> ]Singapore economy to benefit from lower global oil prices: Lim Hng Kiang
http://businesstimes.com.sg/government-e...ys-lim-hng
Eventually, we lose, cause the world economy is not doing well. So if factory start to retrench worker, then even cheap also useless. Time to take care of your job. I think bad time are upon us.
US won't intervene in oil market
DUBAI (Jan 20): The US won’t intervene in the oil market amid falling crude prices, according to Amos Hochstein, the US State Department’s energy envoy.
The US will let “the market” decide what happens, Hochstein said in an interview at a conference in Abu Dhabi yesterday. Hochstein is special envoy and coordinator for international affairs at the State Department’s Bureau of Energy Resources.
“When people ask the question ‘what will the US do?,’ it’s really the market that’s going to have to decide what happens,” Hochstein said.
“This is about a global market that is addressing the supply-demand curve.”
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...oil-market
if oil prices keep low at USD45 to USD56 for the next 12 months, it should be very good for transportation, plastics, manufacturing and airlines industry in the next 12 months. Personal opinion only!
(20-01-2015, 11:05 AM)old friend Wrote: [ -> ]if oil prices keep low at USD45 to USD56 for the next 12 months, it should be very good for transportation, plastics, manufacturing and airlines industry in the next 12 months. Personal opinion only!
short term gain,
cheap, but no one buying/flying, also no money to make...