Exactly, Clement!
Initially the news says "freeze increase", "meeting to discuss limiting production" etc - means not to increase the production rate.
Recently, so many are saying "freeze production", "meeting to discuss freeze production" - this sounds a lot like stop pumping at all.
It's as if to create unnecessary misunderstandings to make the oil price more volatile; to create a traders playground.
Saudi, Russia are all pumping at historical high. So even if they "freeze" increase in oil production, we are still having oil production at historical high rate.
But I don't agree with the ceasefire when you've run out of bullets part. It's more like "all right,we are going to shoot at each other at constant rate, no more increase!"
(18-03-2016, 08:07 PM)I\m Raks Wrote: [ -> ]Exactly, Clement!
Initially the news says "freeze increase", "meeting to discuss limiting production" etc - means not to increase the production rate.
Recently, so many are saying "freeze production", "meeting to discuss freeze production" - this sounds a lot like stop pumping at all.
It's as if to create unnecessary misunderstandings to make the oil price more volatile; to create a traders playground.
Saudi, Russia are all pumping at historical high. So even if they "freeze" increase in oil production, we are still having oil production at historical high rate.
But I don't agree with the ceasefire when you've run out of bullets part. It's more like "all right,we are going to shoot at each other at constant rate, no more increase!"
I think that the production freeze / ceasefire is a sign that they have run out of easy ways to increase production, hence a lack of "bullets" in the market share game.
If you look at the latest OPEC monthly report, total opec production has fallen in Feb despite a production increase by Iran.
(19-03-2016, 03:15 AM)Clement Wrote: [ -> ] (18-03-2016, 08:07 PM)I\m Raks Wrote: [ -> ]Exactly, Clement!
Initially the news says "freeze increase", "meeting to discuss limiting production" etc - means not to increase the production rate.
Recently, so many are saying "freeze production", "meeting to discuss freeze production" - this sounds a lot like stop pumping at all.
It's as if to create unnecessary misunderstandings to make the oil price more volatile; to create a traders playground.
Saudi, Russia are all pumping at historical high. So even if they "freeze" increase in oil production, we are still having oil production at historical high rate.
But I don't agree with the ceasefire when you've run out of bullets part. It's more like "all right,we are going to shoot at each other at constant rate, no more increase!"
I think that the production freeze / ceasefire is a sign that they have run out of easy ways to increase production, hence a lack of "bullets" in the market share game.
If you look at the latest OPEC monthly report, total opec production has fallen in Feb despite a production increase by Iran.
Yet to be seen. The decrease is mainly due to Iraqi. Most of the other countries still edging up.
A view from the global key players.
Transocean, Schlumberger see oil industry recovery delayed
HOUSTON (March 22): Leaders of the world’s largest suppliers of offshore drilling rigs and the services that go with them see the oil market recovery taking even longer than expected last year.
Transocean Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Thigpen expects it will have to wait at least another three years before his company can begin charging higher rates for offshore rigs. Schlumberger Ltd. chief Paal Kibsgaard sees the oil industry, stuck in the deepest financial crisis ever, in no rush to get rigs back online even after prices recover.
Before rig owners can charge more, they must first see a boost in activity after the worst crude market crash in a generation. Transocean doesn’t expect an increase in rig leases until late next year or sometime in 2018, Thigpen said Monday in an interview at the Scotia Howard Weil Energy Conference in New Orleans. Daily rates, which have fallen by more than half over the past two years, aren’t expected to climb until 2019 or 2020, he said.
"I think ’16 and ’17 are going to be tough," said Thigpen, who joined the Vernier, Switzerland-based company 11 months ago. "We’re taking the necessary steps to navigate our way through the downturn, but we’re also preparing for that eventual recovery."
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...ry-delayed
Saudi is suffering together with its competitors...
Saudi economy shows deepening signs of strain under weight of cheap oil
CAIRO (March 29): The Saudi economy is showing deepening signs of strain under the weight of cheap oil.
Saudi consumers withdrew and spent less money in February, according to central bank data released on Monday. M3, one of the broadest measures of money supply, shrank for the first time since at least 2000, when Bloomberg started tracking the data.
While the kingdom still has one of the world's largest foreign-currency reserves, cuts in government spending to shore up public finances are taking a toll on the economy. Growth may slow to 1.5% this year, according to the median estimate of a Bloomberg survey, the slowest pace since at least 2009. Saudi officials have repeatedly said that the nation can weather the slump in oil prices.
Cash withdrawals through ATMs fell 8% after expanding for at least the previous five months, central bank data show. Point-of-sale transactions, an indicator of consumer confidence in the economy, dropped to 15.2 billion riyals ($5.6 billion). And while bank credit to private businesses expanded about 10%, the growth likely reflects short-term borrowing, according to Monica Malik, the chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.
"The rise in credit doesn't indicate business expansion," she said. "Actually, project activity has fallen substantially. All in all, lower government spending is taking a deepening toll on economic growth, and we can see it in the data."
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...-cheap-oil
This is a piece of good news for those vested in o&g industries. The worse off they get, the earlier they will cut production to raise oil prices.
(29-03-2016, 09:23 PM)Bibi Wrote: [ -> ]This is a piece of good news for those vested in o&g industries. The worse off they get, the earlier they will cut production to raise oil prices.
It has to get worst, before it can get better, so yeah, sort of...
US new president will play a major role in oil prices too..
Bloomberg - Russian Oil Output Rises to Record With Production Freeze in Doubt
http://bloom.bg/1qcr6FX
Iran not cooperating, Back to below $30 again lol, race to the bottom...
sent from my Galaxy Tab S
An key insider's and an interested party's view on oil price...
World's top traders say the worst is over for oil
(April 12): Top executives at the world’s largest oil-trading houses said the worst of the market’s woes are probably over, with some predicting prices will climb to US$50 ($67.2) a barrel by next year.
“The down market is behind us,” Torbjorn Tornqvist, chief executive officer of Gunvor Group, said on Tuesday at the FT Global Commodities Summit in Lausanne. “It is the beginning of the end of that for sure.”
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...t-over-oil
(13-04-2016, 09:07 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]An key insider's and an interested party's view on oil price...
World's top traders say the worst is over for oil
(April 12): Top executives at the world’s largest oil-trading houses said the worst of the market’s woes are probably over, with some predicting prices will climb to US$50 ($67.2) a barrel by next year.
“The down market is behind us,” Torbjorn Tornqvist, chief executive officer of Gunvor Group, said on Tuesday at the FT Global Commodities Summit in Lausanne. “It is the beginning of the end of that for sure.”
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...t-over-oil
well if Russia doesnt get the freeze they want in DOHA this weekend, oil will be back down below $30 again.