ValueBuddies.com : Value Investing Forum - Singapore, Hong Kong, U.S.

(05-02-2015, 10:06 PM)BlackCat Wrote: [ -> ]Hi Yewkim,

Thanks for your reply, and the warning. I only pick one ETF which holds E&P companies - you are right, I don't think any ETF can track WTI over the long term. I don't trade often, last year I made two trades! What I'm looking to see is ways to know when a long term downtrend has turned, for any market, not just oil.

Lets see if oil keeps rising in the next few days...

Just like predicting oil prices, there is no way to accurately know when a long term downtrend has turned. oil could spend extended time below $50 or shoot back up above $100 in a few months time.

a sudden uptrend could as easily end up as dead cat bounce.

look at fundamentals which would be a better long term guide on price direction.(e.g. if OPEC says its gonna cut production, then we gonna get a sustained uptrend for quite a few months at least...)

(05-02-2015, 10:05 PM)thor666 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-02-2015, 06:46 PM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]The best is still buy solid OnG to ride the oil back up to 65$/70$. I believe Ezion will be close to 2$ if oil is close to 70$. Wish you all the best.

Hi yew kim,

Not to be offending, im geninuely surprised u consider ezion to be a solid oil and gas bet. They are highly geared. Amongst, I am vested in penguin and if u put a gun on my head, I may choose mermaid.

Could u share why you are in ezion, and to some extent erza?

Sent from my D5503 using Tapatalk

Your Mermaid is a very good choice. It is a sort of safe haven, as it deal moslty in shallow water. And it balance sheet is excellent, but I choose Ezion because of it liquidity. I do not have Ezra.

I agree with you that Mermaid is better than Ezion fundamentally. But Ezion will outrun Mermaid if oil head higher.

Tonight , i am glad that oil is above 50$, just as i has said in the early post.. this is bullish sign for now. Thanks you

(05-02-2015, 10:06 PM)BlackCat Wrote: [ -> ]Hi Yewkim,

Thanks for your reply, and the warning. I only pick one ETF which holds E&P companies - you are right, I don't think any ETF can track WTI over the long term. I don't trade often, last year I made two trades! What I'm looking to see is ways to know when a long term downtrend has turned, for any market, not just oil.

Lets see if oil keeps rising in the next few days...

You are welcome. One thing we must know is never stand in front of a moving train. The trend is clear.

Tonight oil is above 50$ like i said , it will scale greater height going forward. Like WB said...." if you wait for the robins, spring will be over." This is very true.

Some people they are not realistic, they instead of waiting for the robins , in this case, a solid fundamental, that is not how the market work. Market is forward looking. These people will end up chasing later.

Right now , oil is at 51$, anything above 50$ for 2 session more, 44$ is the bottom we will not see for this year.

I am glad I am right and buy today into Nam Cheong and Ezion again.

Anything above 50$ for 2 session, I will buy OnG counter with confident. My target price for oil is 65$/70$.

We let market proof my point, no need to argue, it is a waste of time, rather profit better than winning argument. The purpose of us coming here is to share and profit from one another. Egoism and extreme greed kills. Thank you.

Hope I didn't offend anyone.

(05-02-2015, 10:15 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]look at fundamentals which would be a better long term guide on price direction.(e.g. if OPEC says its gonna cut production, then we gonna get a sustained uptrend for quite a few months at least...)

IMHO, forumners' understanding of the fundamentals of oil is "lacking" too.

Some interesting points to note:

1. If investments in new oil production were to stop completely today, oil production will decline from 90 million barrels a day to approx 82-83 million barrels a day within 1 year. This is the nature of a depleting natural resource, very different from a manufacturing line of iphones. Due to the decline in oil prices, capex has dropped. How long will it take for the drop in capex to meeting the increase in oil consumption, only time will tell.

2. If one examine's BP annual statistical review of world energy, one will realise that OPEC as a whole increase production by a mere 1.5% in 2013 as compared to 2008. If Iraq was excluded, OPEC production actually declined. If one looks at net oil exports instead of production, the rate of decline is even higher. Quote from Saudi Aramco's CEO: The math will tell you that our exports... are gradually declining. So the reason for the imbalance in the market absolutely has nothing to do with Saudi Arabia. Therefore, increasing oil production in OPEC ain't easy or cheap. The main increase in oil production from 2008 to 2013 was from USA and 85% of that increase was due to tight oil (aka shale oil).

3. Besides OPEC, Russian can also cut 2 million barrels a day of production from their 9 million plus a day of production.

4. The so called "new" inventions of directional (or horizontal) drilling and hydraulic well fracturing (fracking) were in use at least 40 to 50 years ago. Notwithstanding that there have been some innovations, the main enabler of tight oil is a high price of oil. Fracking basically double the cost of a well and tight oil wells deplete really fast. So the window for cost recovery is very much shortened, which is why tight oil production is expensive.

^^^ just to add a point: LED was also a 50 year technology but only recently we see LED general lighting. Not only was price of oil conducive but regulatory environment under Obama admin of cutting foreign reliance, and technological advances became conducive. Recently deceased George Mitchell was part of that breakthrough as chronicled in The Frackers

(05-02-2015, 11:04 PM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-02-2015, 10:05 PM)thor666 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-02-2015, 06:46 PM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]The best is still buy solid OnG to ride the oil back up to 65$/70$. I believe Ezion will be close to 2$ if oil is close to 70$. Wish you all the best.

Hi yew kim,

Not to be offending, im geninuely surprised u consider ezion to be a solid oil and gas bet. They are highly geared. Amongst, I am vested in penguin and if u put a gun on my head, I may choose mermaid.

Could u share why you are in ezion, and to some extent erza?

Sent from my D5503 using Tapatalk

Your Mermaid is a very good choice. It is a sort of safe haven, as it deal moslty in shallow water. And it balance sheet is excellent, but I choose Ezion because of it liquidity. I do not have Ezra.

I agree with you that Mermaid is better than Ezion fundamentally. But Ezion will outrun Mermaid if oil head higher.

Tonight , i am glad that oil is above 50$, just as i has said in the early post.. this is bullish sign for now. Thanks you

Yew Kim is trader. He is looking for beta and not alpha which is obvious in his posts

I think it is ok to talk about TA here and there but TA without FA in the long run is a waste of time. Suggest TA posters at least have some FA attached to their post if there are going to continuously post on the topic (barring those once a while one-liner posts which doesn't even have TA )

(04-02-2015, 12:18 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]In my personal experience trading without fundamentals will not get very far. TA is one of the catalysts one should look out for. But to trade just base on TA is a gamble unless one is taking advantage of some structural issues eg scalping.

If one's entire premise is just TA, I have yet to know anyone who does it successfully over the long run.

(05-02-2015, 10:06 PM)BlackCat Wrote: [ -> ]Hi Yewkim,

Thanks for your reply, and the warning. I only pick one ETF which holds E&P companies - you are right, I don't think any ETF can track WTI over the long term. I don't trade often, last year I made two trades! What I'm looking to see is ways to know when a long term downtrend has turned, for any market, not just oil.

Lets see if oil keeps rising in the next few days...

United States Oil Fund

The United States Oil Fund® LP (USO) is an exchange-traded security designed to track the daily price movements of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") light, sweet crude oil. USO issues shares that may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca.

http://www.unitedstatescommodityfunds.co...nd-details

Just becareful, USO used futures to rolled eventhough it is an ETF, so if the futures is in contango, ETF holders will bare expensive cost to roll over the futures thus AUM will decrease over the time

(06-02-2015, 11:34 AM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-02-2015, 10:06 PM)BlackCat Wrote: [ -> ]Hi Yewkim,

Thanks for your reply, and the warning. I only pick one ETF which holds E&P companies - you are right, I don't think any ETF can track WTI over the long term. I don't trade often, last year I made two trades! What I'm looking to see is ways to know when a long term downtrend has turned, for any market, not just oil.

Lets see if oil keeps rising in the next few days...

United States Oil Fund

The United States Oil Fund® LP (USO) is an exchange-traded security designed to track the daily price movements of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") light, sweet crude oil. USO issues shares that may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca.

http://www.unitedstatescommodityfunds.co...nd-details

(06-02-2015, 08:01 AM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]^^^ just to add a point: LED was also a 50 year technology but only recently we see LED general lighting. Not only was price of oil conducive but regulatory environment under Obama admin of cutting foreign reliance, and technological advances became conducive. Recently deceased George Mitchell was part of that breakthrough as chronicled in The Frackers

(05-02-2015, 11:04 PM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-02-2015, 10:05 PM)thor666 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-02-2015, 06:46 PM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]The best is still buy solid OnG to ride the oil back up to 65$/70$. I believe Ezion will be close to 2$ if oil is close to 70$. Wish you all the best.

Hi yew kim,

Not to be offending, im geninuely surprised u consider ezion to be a solid oil and gas bet. They are highly geared. Amongst, I am vested in penguin and if u put a gun on my head, I may choose mermaid.

Could u share why you are in ezion, and to some extent erza?

Sent from my D5503 using Tapatalk

Your Mermaid is a very good choice. It is a sort of safe haven, as it deal moslty in shallow water. And it balance sheet is excellent, but I choose Ezion because of it liquidity. I do not have Ezra.

I agree with you that Mermaid is better than Ezion fundamentally. But Ezion will outrun Mermaid if oil head higher.

Tonight , i am glad that oil is above 50$, just as i has said in the early post.. this is bullish sign for now. Thanks you

Yew Kim is trader. He is looking for beta and not alpha which is obvious in his posts

I think it is ok to talk about TA here and there but TA without FA in the long run is a waste of time. Suggest TA posters at least have some FA attached to their post if there are going to continuously post on the topic (barring those once a while one-liner posts which doesn't even have TA )

(04-02-2015, 12:18 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]In my personal experience trading without fundamentals will not get very far. TA is one of the catalysts one should look out for. But to trade just base on TA is a gamble unless one is taking advantage of some structural issues eg scalping.

If one's entire premise is just TA, I have yet to know anyone who does it successfully over the long run.

Currently, oil is trading a 51.83

I already clarify that I am both a TA and FA gal. If we are talking about a specify coy, then it is alright, if you instead on the FA( balance sheet and so on). But we are talking about crude oil.

Those article which are posted here taken from CNBC or news else where are already history. Market action is implying an oil price of 65$/70$ base on future stimulus and QE by CB. Have you not heard that market are always 6 months ahead of the real economy?

Market price action cannot bluff, and is too base on the law of supply and demand, neither can it be manipulated by any country or big institution.

Crude oil are traded in 1000 barrel per contract, if one keep buying and if there are really no demand, then he or she got to take delivery, will end up in deep hole.

You cannot just base on FA alone, TA can show market price action very clearly the law of supply and demand are in play. If TA is useless, then why SGX are conducting them to the public?

Just as in any martial art, it need a combination of hand and feet to win a fight. I have yet come across one that uses only hand alone or feet alone type.

Let not argue., let the market prove my point, market action is louder than words.

Last week , when i conclude that oil is heading higher, immediately i share here at 1 am. Please do not let FA blind you . By the time , when you read FA of oil is good, your counter will be in the sky, far from your reach. Market is pricing the FA of oil 6 month into the future.

FA and TA are both a good tool, neither can we say one is better over the other.

BTW, when I say TA, i am not just referring to chart , RSI, MACD and so on alone, these are but historical, already happen data and project into the future, assuming a trend or just plain guide, you can say it is as good as a bet. I am using deeper TA, which I don't think i can just simply put down in word over here to share. We study market price action in detail to arrive at the supply and demand .I am sorry that i cannot share , too complicated.

I believe we will see 65$ within the next few months or sooner.

Tonight, i believe we will see oil cross 53$/54$, just take note . You are not going to see 44$ again. The market has kiss 44$ goodbye for this year. Thank you.

There is FA involved in oil, though like I said oil price is very complicated due to export cartel and geopolitics. In general I don't bother to guesstimate oil price. But this time round the big swing is actually shale so it is relatively easy to monitor that.

Good thing about threads is that you can see the chronology of events. We had already been talking about shale bust in early December before you joined the discussion so you can have a look back

(06-12-2014, 05:48 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]We had already discussed about shale more than a year ago when these reports were coming out. More importantly the physical markets and prices were reacting yet there were still skeptics on shale

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5526-...l#pid91168

I doubt Saudi or OPEC suddenly just woke up on the emergence of shale. What has changed since then was Russia/ Ukraine

Honestly we are no longer looking at emergence of shale anymore. We are looking at the bust of shale. No doubt there will be survivals but it's gonna be pretty ugly. Like i posted prior in this thread, they are the unfortunate collateral damage

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5541-...#pid100091

I think what we are confused about is your swing in TA within a span of 2 months when the FA trend is pretty clear. Like I said I have never seen anyone done this successfully over the LONG term, even professional traders.

(13-12-2014, 02:05 AM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]I believe oil still got lot more to go down. I bought ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO) 2 weeks ago, already make good profit. I think support at 60$ broken, next worse case will be 40$. But i will be using trailing stop to protect my profit. Why not use this instrument to profit? JMO

(18-12-2014, 01:16 AM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]

(17-12-2014, 03:03 AM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]Wow, bernasib baik malam ini.. sold all SCO, take half at 77, then see it falling take all at 75.. if not now too late, looking to get back soon. I think it should be able to get back above 60$ soon. But after a fall so steep, it may take a while. Hope all are doing well too. If you got short position, do please be alert. I guess oil n gas counters play could start soon. Today, I bought into 2 oil counters. I do have strict stop loss enshrine. But this does not means oil have found a bottom. Oil is just having a bounce here. Good luck to all.

Finally, oil is building up strength to cross 60$ above. I bought into UCO n DIG one day after i book profit for SCO, join me? It is still early. And back in SGX, I bought vallianz and Pacific R to ride oil back up above 60$. Wish me luck.

(31-12-2014, 11:02 PM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]No one can tell the future or is there such a thing call oracle. Market is base on supply and demand. Now the demand is weak. We should use that weakness to our advantage. It is true someday oil will eventually go up. But that will be long time away. When demand go up or oil output are reduce because of low price, then oil px will go up. But i think the latter will be the reason for quite sometimes.

(27-01-2015, 09:22 PM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]Actually, oil at this level, no doubt near bottom, but in % wise it is still far, and as it closes to bottom, it is easier to play the ride up.

I still think all OnG which soar recently will fall hard later. Be careful.

(03-02-2015, 05:48 PM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]Today, seen like I am right again, oil go above 50$, now it is currently trading at 51.17, tonite that where the firework( volatility) will begin. Years of watching price action has taught me to be alert to market action. Oil is one. I watch it last Friday and yesterday and arrive at a conclusion, so i posted here to share.

I didn't say TA is useless but that it is just one of the catalyst. This will be my last response to you if you still just focus solely on TA, as like I said focusing just on TA is a waste of time in the longer term. BTW we have been there done that so it is not that we are ignorant. I am specuvestor

(06-02-2015, 03:36 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]There is FA involved in oil, though like I said oil price is very complicated due to export cartel and geopolitics. In general I don't bother to guesstimate oil price. But this time round the big swing is actually shale so it is relatively easy to monitor that.

Good thing about threads is that you can see the chronology of events. We had already been talking about shale bust in early December before you joined the discussion so you can have a look back

(06-12-2014, 05:48 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]We had already discussed about shale more than a year ago when these reports were coming out. More importantly the physical markets and prices were reacting yet there were still skeptics on shale

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5526-...l#pid91168



Thanks you, I still think nothing speak louder than market price action and the law of supply and demand which is the real FA of crude oil in the market. Not news that is report second handed.


I doubt Saudi or OPEC suddenly just woke up on the emergence of shale. What has changed since then was Russia/ Ukraine

Honestly we are no longer looking at emergence of shale anymore. We are looking at the bust of shale. No doubt there will be survivals but it's gonna be pretty ugly. Like i posted prior in this thread, they are the unfortunate collateral damage

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5541-...#pid100091

I think what we are confused about is your swing in TA within a span of 2 months when the FA trend is pretty clear. Like I said I have never seen anyone done this successfully over the LONG term, even professional traders.

(13-12-2014, 02:05 AM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]I believe oil still got lot more to go down. I bought ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO) 2 weeks ago, already make good profit. I think support at 60$ broken, next worse case will be 40$. But i will be using trailing stop to protect my profit. Why not use this instrument to profit? JMO

(18-12-2014, 01:16 AM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]

(17-12-2014, 03:03 AM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]Wow, bernasib baik malam ini.. sold all SCO, take half at 77, then see it falling take all at 75.. if not now too late, looking to get back soon. I think it should be able to get back above 60$ soon. But after a fall so steep, it may take a while. Hope all are doing well too. If you got short position, do please be alert. I guess oil n gas counters play could start soon. Today, I bought into 2 oil counters. I do have strict stop loss enshrine. But this does not means oil have found a bottom. Oil is just having a bounce here. Good luck to all.

Finally, oil is building up strength to cross 60$ above. I bought into UCO n DIG one day after i book profit for SCO, join me? It is still early. And back in SGX, I bought vallianz and Pacific R to ride oil back up above 60$. Wish me luck.

(31-12-2014, 11:02 PM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]No one can tell the future or is there such a thing call oracle. Market is base on supply and demand. Now the demand is weak. We should use that weakness to our advantage. It is true someday oil will eventually go up. But that will be long time away. When demand go up or oil output are reduce because of low price, then oil px will go up. But i think the latter will be the reason for quite sometimes.

I still think nothing speak louder than market price action which show the law of supply and demand in play. This is the real FA of crude oil right now. We must change fast with market. And not the other way around. If market price action tell me the very next minute that demand is weak, I must move with them, and not against them if you want to win. Remeber we are too small, BB rule.