The balance point is hard to predict, with lot of moving parts...
Brent creeps toward US$50 as crude prices hit new 2016 highs
SINGAPORE (May 17): Brent crude pushed towards US$50 a barrel in Asia Tuesday, boosted by supply disruptions from the escalating Canadian wildfires and armed attacks against oil facilities in Nigeria.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...2016-highs
the PHYSICAL evidence is there for all to see. its not only our local waters, many other ports are clogged with tankers sitting around.
The futures traders are playing a very dangerous game. And when contango goes back to backwardation, BOOM! Gonna be lots of traders caught with their pants down.
- still think we are not at the bottom of the oil supercycle yet -
As expected no deal
Starting to become like Singaporean AGM, all go there for the makan only...
OPEC Keeps Status Quo After Failing to Agree on Output Cap
OPEC will stick to its policy of unfettered oil production after members failed to agree on a new output ceiling. Crude extended its decline in London.
The meeting didn’t produce a supply accord but did reach consensus on appointing Nigeria’s candidate as new secretary-general, Sudirman Said, Indonesia’s energy minister, said in Vienna. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, had previously discussed
restoring a production target scrapped in December, according to delegates familiar with the matter.
Oil has rallied about 80 percent from the 12-year low reached in January as depressed prices take their toll on supplies. That suggests the Saudi-led decision in 2014 to maintain output amid a global glut is finally paying off, with higher-cost producers cutting back. While Saudi Arabia had shown willingness to mend divisions Thursday with cash-strapped members demanding a new group ceiling, Iran said it would only support individual country quotas that would be difficult to agree in a single meeting.
Iran has rejected any cap on production as it restores output following the removal of sanctions in January. The country’s refusal to participate in a production freeze proposed earlier this year prompted Saudi Arabia to
block a deal between OPEC and Russia in April.
Crude Drops
(17-06-2016, 03:54 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]Iran's oil exports have tripled since late 2015
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/16/investin...index.html
Downside risk for oil :
Iran production spike.
Elimination of ISIS and increase in oil production in previously ISIS controlled conflict area.
Completion of China stockpiling.
Oil $30 here we go again.
