Nomura view on the 4th telco operator. A 10% market share, means close to 1 million users. Starhub, achieved the 1 million users mark, in about 4 years, during the good old days. Will the new operator do it, faster than Starhub, amid the much higher penetration rate now.
(vested in M1)
Fourth Singapore telco likely but viability is questionable, says Nomura
SINGAPORE (Sept 2): A new entrant to Singapore's telecommunications sector seems like a reasonable possibility given the lineup of potential candidates and a regulator review of competition in the sector, but the financial viability of a new player remains questionable, Nomura says in a note.
“"We are somewhat less concerned than the broader market on the possibility of a fourth operator emerging and being disruptive," the research house says, adding that much depends on the regulator's decisions about spectrum allocation. "To achieve a 10% return on a $500 million investment, a new entrant will need [about] 10% market share, we estimate," Nomura says.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...ays-nomura
The observation from MS, on Singapore Telco market...
(vested)
Morgan Stanley sees few signs of mobile price war in Singapore
SINGAPORE (Sept 18): Morgan Stanley sees little evidence of an impending price war after analysing the pricing plans for the latest Apple's iPhone models announced by M1.
M1, Singapore's smallest telco operator, has released its new price plans for iPhone 6s models, though its bigger rivals Singtel and StarHub have yet to do so.
“We believe the pricing plans should alleviate market concerns of an impending price war and risks of new entrants,” says Morgan Stanley.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...-singapore
The view from UOB KayHian analyst. The key point of the view, is the risk from the entry of fourth operator is diminishing, a popular market view on the matter.
UOB KayHian works out scenarios with 4th telco player
SINGAPORE (Sept 22): UOB KayHian says it has figured out how the entry of a fourth player into Singapore's telco sector could affect the three incumbents.
"We solved the puzzle by performing a scenario analysis and working out earnings and valuations based on two possible outcomes," says UOB KayHian .
If there is no fourth mobile operator, UOB KayHian says, Singtel's target price will be $4.65 a share, StarHub will be worth $3.83 and M1 will have a new target price of $3.58.
If a new entrant emerges, these prices will be $4.30, $2.46 and $2.31, respectively.
"We upgrade the telco sector to overweight as we believe the risk from the entry of a fourth mobile operator has diminished," UOB KayHian says.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...lco-player
I would actually think that the sustainability of the 4th telco would be in question considering it takes time for the new comer to catch up same level of efficiency of the big brothers. With this in mind, I don't expect that it would bring much competitions to the market and thus impact is insignificant imo.
UOB seems over-fired on Starhub and M1, seems more a baseless prediction.
(24-09-2015, 07:55 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: [ -> ]I would actually think that the sustainability of the 4th telco would be in question considering it takes time for the new comer to catch up same level of efficiency of the big brothers. With this in mind, I don't expect that it would bring much competitions to the market and thus impact is insignificant imo.
UOB seems over-fired on Starhub and M1, seems more a baseless prediction.
The model predicted the fourth operator achieves 9-10% market share, after two years of full operation. It means about 1 million users after 2 years, or 500K per year. I really doubt the fourth operator can achieve it. Starhub's target was 200K per year, amid the good old years, and good local partners i.e. Singapore Technologies, and Singapore Power.
(vested in M1)
Cf, agreed with u. And strangely none of analysts address m1-liberty tieup which has potential to ve a game changer. Essentially implies. IDA would introduce a 5th operator.
Good time to pick up starhub and m1 shares if the market actually sells down.
Sent from my D5503 using Tapatalk
(24-09-2015, 10:39 AM)thor666 Wrote: [ -> ]Cf, agreed with u. And strangely none of analysts address m1-liberty tieup which has potential to ve a game changer. Essentially implies. IDA would introduce a 5th operator.
Good time to pick up starhub and m1 shares if the market actually sells down.
Sent from my D5503 using Tapatalk
IDA has officially said, Singapore market is only big enough for four nationwide infrastructure players.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/sing...66612.html
Yes, M1-Liberty tie-up is a new concept. Let's see how it goes...
More offering from the local telco...
Free data roaming in M’sia and Indonesia with M1’s local prepaid bundles
SINGAPORE — Starting today (Oct 15), M1 prepaid customers can use their existing local data bundles while in Malaysia and Indonesia, said M1 in a press statement.
Available on M1’s partner networks Celcom in Malaysia and XL Axiata in Indonesia, the data roaming feature allows customers to enjoy the roaming service at no additional charge by dialling #100# and selecting the affiliated networks in the respective countries.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/tech/free-dat...id-bundles