(04-05-2013, 12:16 PM)Drizzt Wrote: [ -> ]the pipe to internatinal is still the same and as long as nothing is done we are screwed. still i wish they came up with less than 30 bucks plan. i really dont need so much bandwidth.
good marketing for m1, but i doube with latest revenue growth it justifies the telcos share prices.
it is more due to potential that we dont see as retail investors or risk free proposition is substantially reduced.
For those apps uses local servers e.g. cloud apps, the larger pipe is always meaningful.
Well, the cost per month for residential is $20-$25, i seriously doubt the feasibility of below $30 plans.
Telco play is on FCF. Current MV is valued base on forward FCF IMO
M1's FCF will continue to grow with increasing OCF, and more and less stable CapEx. With adjusted FCF of $160 mil in FY2012, with discount rate of 10%, and residue PE of 15, 5 years DCF with FCF growth of 8% will give value of $3.2-$3.3.
Growth of 8% in FCF aggressive? It is up to everyone's guess and opinion...
wow 8% FCF growth? Even starhub, the darling amongst them looks to keep their FCF consistent. i have not see but its definitely not close to that. i agree your discount rate is conservative.why not use EPS. they always pay close to EPS or 80-90% of it.
my take is: show me that growth in FCF. else this price climb is a bit out of touch.
the price climb give me the feeling that these telcos are safe stocks for overseas institutions that can only be invest in large issues. And to them 4-5% yield is a lot.
(07-05-2013, 11:45 AM)Drizzt Wrote: [ -> ]wow 8% FCF growth? Even starhub, the darling amongst them looks to keep their FCF consistent. i have not see but its definitely not close to that. i agree your discount rate is conservative.why not use EPS. they always pay close to EPS or 80-90% of it.
my take is: show me that growth in FCF. else this price climb is a bit out of touch.
the price climb give me the feeling that these telcos are safe stocks for overseas institutions that can only be invest in large issues. And to them 4-5% yield is a lot.
I do agree the current low-interest is one of the reasons for the price hike, but not necessary the only reason.
8% FCF growth seems aggressive at face value. How about 8% growth base on the followings
- Growing of service-base fixed network biz, which largest growth is expected in next few years
- With new accounting of handset sale, more contribution from mobile biz on CF is expected in the next few years.
- 4G and next generation of 4G will bring more $ with better margin.
YMMV and vested
the telcos should seriously thank steve jobs for all the earnings growth for the past few years. Who needs 4G if the mobile devices did not emerge?
personally, i think the growth rate domestically cannot be projected from the past few years into the future simply bcos the spurt is now gone (unless another super star product emerges) - the ensuing growth will come from the users hooked on ever-faster connectivity and ever-ballooning data usage. Data+speed is addictive - who can go back to the days of dialup connections after you experience unlimited broadband? so data will continue to grow since people cannot stop their addiction, but the growth rate implied in the prices is rather optimistic to me.
hi AlphaQuant, i beg to differ. for a tech watcher, apple was part of the competition, but google bought android before the first iphone annoucement, so the push impertus is there.
nokia have been driving it pretty well previously.
from my observation i will like to throw something out. it seems LTE and the data cap at 2-3gb is really taking an effect. i am starting to have more friends telling me they are bursting that cap.
LTE is much faster and the better experience allow you to down load and do more things, there by speeding up bursting the cap.
(07-05-2013, 08:17 PM)Drizzt Wrote: [ -> ]hi AlphaQuant, i beg to differ. for a tech watcher, apple was part of the competition, but google bought android before the first iphone annoucement, so the push impertus is there.
nokia have been driving it pretty well previously.
from my observation i will like to throw something out. it seems LTE and the data cap at 2-3gb is really taking an effect. i am starting to have more friends telling me they are bursting that cap.
LTE is much faster and the better experience allow you to down load and do more things, there by speeding up bursting the cap.
FYI, M1's 1Q presentation slide's info to support the observation
- Faster network and devices drove data usage
- Average data usage on smartphones exceeded 2GB/month
- 20% of postpaid customers on tiered data plans
- 9% of these customers exceeded their data bundle
(07-05-2013, 08:17 PM)Drizzt Wrote: [ -> ]hi AlphaQuant, i beg to differ. for a tech watcher, apple was part of the competition, but google bought android before the first iphone annoucement, so the push impertus is there.
nokia have been driving it pretty well previously.
from my observation i will like to throw something out. it seems LTE and the data cap at 2-3gb is really taking an effect. i am starting to have more friends telling me they are bursting that cap.
LTE is much faster and the better experience allow you to down load and do more things, there by speeding up bursting the cap.
oh i agree - my point was more of the telcos needing to thank a bunch of very creative blokes creating a huge demand for speed and data, which the telcos benefitted from. I do think that M1 was pretty quick on their feet to recognise LTE and be the first guys on the job. So thk Jobs, Page, Zuckerberg if u like.
yes i believe the data tiering will provide a boost to ARPU - once the users get hooked, there's no going back.
(07-05-2013, 06:14 PM)AlphaQuant Wrote: [ -> ]the telcos should seriously thank steve jobs for all the earnings growth for the past few years. Who needs 4G if the mobile devices did not emerge?
Besides Steve Jobs, we should thank Google, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and online gaming companies too!!!
(09-05-2013, 12:30 AM)Dividend Warrior Wrote: [ -> ] (07-05-2013, 06:14 PM)AlphaQuant Wrote: [ -> ]the telcos should seriously thank steve jobs for all the earnings growth for the past few years. Who needs 4G if the mobile devices did not emerge?
Besides Steve Jobs, we should thank Google, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and online gaming companies too!!!
The list goes on... Whatapps, WeChat
The other RSPs are fighting back. I saw ViewQwest and MyRepublic's adverts in the paper today.
The bundle in their offers are mainly the OTT services. MyRepublic offers true entertainment on demand from NetFlix, Hulu, BBC etc. ViewQwest offers ViewQwest TV (i saw NetFlix, Hulu, PPTV and TVB? in the advert), and Toogle Prime Pack.
The bundle services are direct threat to Pay-TV services of SingTel and Starhub.