ValueBuddies.com : Value Investing Forum - Singapore, Hong Kong, U.S.

CMZ's rebuttal of rebuttal. This should be the end.

http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_Corpor...ep2013.pdf

(03-09-2013, 10:55 PM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ]The increase in trade receivables turnover is a worrying sign...Does that imply signs of increasing competition, driving sales by loosing credit terms or simply an accounting fraud WIP?

Earnings per share wise, yes they have declined due to the dilution, but do take into account the strategic partnership between China Minzhong and Indofood, the potential synergy could be huge. Moreover, Indofood only bought in earlier this year, the effect is yet to be seen.

Trade receivables wise, perhaps CMZ can best explain it:

Quote:Receivables as at end of FY2012 all collected
We believe that the increased trade receivables at the end of FY2012 were due largely to the
credit tightening in the PRC as well as the weather pattern in FY2012. The arrival of the winter
season, whose cool temperature is essential for the cultivation of peak season crops, such as
champignon mushrooms, was delayed in FY2012. This was previously highlighted in our quarterly
financial statements as well as our annual report, extracts of which are exhibited in Annex K. This
resulted in a shift in the operating peak season from the months of December to April in normal
years to January to May in FY2012. This meant that receivables traditionally collected in the
financial year had to be pushed back. As at the end of FY2012, the total trade receivables of the
Group were RMB967.1 million (including those not due). All of these receivables were collected by
the end of 2QFY2013.
As at 30 June 2013, 68% of our receivables were not due, while 31% (approximately RMB338
million) were 1 - 30 days past due. In the month of July 2013, the Group collected approximately 19
RMB 365 million of trade receivables. We typically provide 90 days credit for sales of processed
goods and 30 to 60 days credit for sales of fresh produce. The average credit terms are affected
by the proportion of sales generated from the processed goods and fresh produce. As such, the
average credit terms would also be affected by the proportion of sales generated from the
processed goods and fresh produce. In addition, credit terms commence from the day goods are
received by the customer, whereas receivables are recorded once we issue invoices. In the case
of overseas sales, the difference between the two will be larger taking into account shipping time
and customs clearances.

I agree it is worrying, as there is an inherent risk of default by their customers. Especially in events of further credit tightening around the world and economic downturn.

hmm, trading at 1.115 now.

why will anyone want to sell at 1.115 now that there's a bid from Indofood @ 1.12?

(04-09-2013, 10:20 AM)AlphaQuant Wrote: [ -> ]why will anyone want to sell at 1.115 now that there's a bid from Indofood @ 1.12?

People who just want to take the money and run? You get paid $1.115 less transaction fee now to re-invest in something else or wait for another few weeks (or months) to get about the same $.

(04-09-2013, 10:27 AM)egghead Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-09-2013, 10:20 AM)AlphaQuant Wrote: [ -> ]why will anyone want to sell at 1.115 now that there's a bid from Indofood @ 1.12?

People who just want to take the money and run? You get paid $1.115 less transaction fee now to re-invest in something else or wait for another few weeks (or months) to get about the same $.

Some may have taken the 'middle path' - Keep 50% Sell 50%.

(04-09-2013, 10:20 AM)AlphaQuant Wrote: [ -> ]hmm, trading at 1.115 now.

why will anyone want to sell at 1.115 now that there's a bid from Indofood @ 1.12?

The queues indicating that IndoF intents to acquire lower at $1.115, instead of $1.12? No clearing on those wanted to sell at $1.12 now

(not vested)

(04-09-2013, 10:53 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-09-2013, 10:20 AM)AlphaQuant Wrote: [ -> ]hmm, trading at 1.115 now.

why will anyone want to sell at 1.115 now that there's a bid from Indofood @ 1.12?

The queues indicating that IndoF intents to acquire lower at $1.115, instead of $1.12? No clearing on those wanted to sell at $1.12 now

(not vested)

sometimes Offeror queue 0.5 cents to catch some 'kan cheong' spiders.
Then grabbed up to Offer Price at the end of the day.

I observe Simon Cheong did that after 'No Price Increase' statement.

(04-09-2013, 10:55 AM)opmi Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-09-2013, 10:53 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-09-2013, 10:20 AM)AlphaQuant Wrote: [ -> ]hmm, trading at 1.115 now.

why will anyone want to sell at 1.115 now that there's a bid from Indofood @ 1.12?

The queues indicating that IndoF intents to acquire lower at $1.115, instead of $1.12? No clearing on those wanted to sell at $1.12 now

(not vested)

sometimes Offeror queue 0.5 cents to catch some 'kan cheong' spiders.
Then grabbed up to Offer Price at the end of the day.

I observe Simon Cheong did that after 'No Price Increase' statement.

Of course 0.5 cents difference is really a lot. When * by the thousands & thousands lots.

No access to computer, so I'll be brief. New update on sgx website, Indofood's offer turns unconditional. There appears to be abitrage opportunity if we can snap shares up at $1.115 using the right discount broker.

(04-09-2013, 10:20 AM)AlphaQuant Wrote: [ -> ]hmm, trading at 1.115 now.

why will anyone want to sell at 1.115 now that there's a bid from Indofood @ 1.12?

I will sell, knowing the upside is only 0.5c. Will put my money elsewhere where there is more upside potential.