(26-08-2013, 09:20 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: [ -> ]I only bailed in after Indofood bailed in..
The lesson to be learnt is that your basis of following Indofood was correct. Imagine if it was say a fund that bought it. It is unlikely there would be a GO or support because the fund would not know the operational inside outs.
Have a good night rest
(02-09-2013, 04:20 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]From SGX, the Short Selling data for CMZ,
[wrap]
[table=Week]
19 August 2013 to 23 August 2013
12 August 2013 to 16 August 2013
05 August 2013 to 09 August 2013
29 July 2013 to 02 August 2013
22 July 2013 to 26 July 2013
15 July 2013 to 19 July 2013
08 July 2013 to 12 July 2013
01 July 2013 to 05 July 2013[/table]
[table=Numbers]
5,795,000
6,191,000
2,274,000
3,448,000
1,206,000
156,000
234,000
562,000[/table]
[table=Dollar Value]
$5,950,410
$6,655,965
$2,409,305
$3,700,830
$1,328,295
$174,555
$258,970
$580,940 [/table]
[table=Average Unit Price]
$1.027
$1.075
$1.060
$1.073
$1.101
$1.119
$1.107
$1.034 [/table]
[/wrap]
If I were to hazard a guess, Glaucus may have started shorting from 22-Jul week as we can see the volume starting to pick up. Of course they may have started shorting earlier but I didn't dig for earlier SGX data... Average short prices are all below IndoFood Offer of $1.12. If I'm correct, I don't think (just a ball park estimate plucked from the air) their damage would be >$1Mil as the price upside is "fortunately" capped at aro' $1.12 (due to IndoFood Offer)..
If the guess is right, the damage is a loss of about $20 mil profit (if CMZ is worth zero).
Glaucus is playing with fire. Their head got bigger after their many successful attempts. Now they try to take on the big boys. Too bad, they mess with the wrong company. Serve them right.
(02-09-2013, 04:20 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]From SGX, the Short Selling data for CMZ,
[wrap]
[table=Week]
19 August 2013 to 23 August 2013
12 August 2013 to 16 August 2013
05 August 2013 to 09 August 2013
29 July 2013 to 02 August 2013
22 July 2013 to 26 July 2013
15 July 2013 to 19 July 2013
08 July 2013 to 12 July 2013
01 July 2013 to 05 July 2013[/table]
[table=Numbers]
5,795,000
6,191,000
2,274,000
3,448,000
1,206,000
156,000
234,000
562,000[/table]
[table=Dollar Value]
$5,950,410
$6,655,965
$2,409,305
$3,700,830
$1,328,295
$174,555
$258,970
$580,940 [/table]
[table=Average Unit Price]
$1.027
$1.075
$1.060
$1.073
$1.101
$1.119
$1.107
$1.034 [/table]
[/wrap]
If I were to hazard a guess, Glaucus may have started shorting from 22-Jul week as we can see the volume starting to pick up. Of course they may have started shorting earlier but I didn't dig for earlier SGX data... Average short prices are all below IndoFood Offer of $1.12. If I'm correct, I don't think (just a ball park estimate plucked from the air) their damage would be >$1Mil as the price upside is "fortunately" capped at aro' $1.12 (due to IndoFood Offer)..
About 52000 lots were bought at 1.13-14 in the first 5 min, most likely due to short covering. I think the short sell data you get from SGX web site are only intraday shorts as you can't do naked shorts. I think longer term short sellers had to borrow shares to short through either CFD or borrow shares through shares through the SBL scheme to short.
If I recalled, Markit's data show that short interest is 7.2% of outstanding shares, which is about 47000 lots. It prolly had increased on last Mon when Glaucus made the move.
I had a position in CMZ myself and I managed to squeeze the short sellers into buying my stake at 1.135.
(02-09-2013, 05:04 PM)Tiggerbee Wrote: [ -> ] (02-09-2013, 04:20 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]From SGX, the Short Selling data for CMZ,
[wrap]
[table=Week]
19 August 2013 to 23 August 2013
12 August 2013 to 16 August 2013
05 August 2013 to 09 August 2013
29 July 2013 to 02 August 2013
22 July 2013 to 26 July 2013
15 July 2013 to 19 July 2013
08 July 2013 to 12 July 2013
01 July 2013 to 05 July 2013[/table]
[table=Numbers]
5,795,000
6,191,000
2,274,000
3,448,000
1,206,000
156,000
234,000
562,000[/table]
[table=Dollar Value]
$5,950,410
$6,655,965
$2,409,305
$3,700,830
$1,328,295
$174,555
$258,970
$580,940 [/table]
[table=Average Unit Price]
$1.027
$1.075
$1.060
$1.073
$1.101
$1.119
$1.107
$1.034 [/table]
[/wrap]
If I were to hazard a guess, Glaucus may have started shorting from 22-Jul week as we can see the volume starting to pick up. Of course they may have started shorting earlier but I didn't dig for earlier SGX data... Average short prices are all below IndoFood Offer of $1.12. If I'm correct, I don't think (just a ball park estimate plucked from the air) their damage would be >$1Mil as the price upside is "fortunately" capped at aro' $1.12 (due to IndoFood Offer)..
About 52000 lots were bought at 1.13-14 in the first 5 min, most likely due to short covering. I think the short sell data you get from SGX web site are only intraday shorts as you can't do naked shorts. I think longer term short sellers had to borrow shares to short through either CFD or borrow shares through shares through the SBL scheme to short.
If I recalled, Markit's data show that short interest is 7.2% of outstanding shares, which is about 47000 lots. It prolly had increased on last Mon when Glaucus made the move.
I had a position in CMZ myself and I managed to squeeze the short sellers into buying my stake at 1.135.
The SGX data includes both 'covered' (using borrowed scrips) & 'uncovered' (naked) shorts. But, we'll not be able to tell how much of the total shorts is still outstanding.
Reference :
MAS GUIDELINES ON SHORT SELLING DISCLOSURE
CityFarmer Wrote:If the guess is right, the damage is a loss of about $20 mil profit (if CMZ is worth zero).
For all we know, they may have covered most of the shorts before the halt... Even tho' they stated that they think it's worth zero, the opportunity to take profit at ~-50% share price almost immediately may be too tempting... depends on how they manages their risks as nothing is for certain....
(02-09-2013, 04:56 PM)kang Wrote: [ -> ]Glaucus is playing with fire. Their head got bigger after their many successful attempts. Now they try to take on the big boys. Too bad, they mess with the wrong company. Serve them right.
These are shorties that do research and they did not accuse the company without proofs. Without these shorties, there are lots of fraudsters that will go on and on siphoning money from innocent shareholders.
If the shorties had come earlier to SGX, we probably would have less dishonest S-chips that came to SGX for listing.
CMZ shareholders are saved. However, if Indofood did not do its own due diligence, Indofood shareholders will suffer.
So, basically, now the risk of fraud has been transferred to Indofood.
(02-09-2013, 04:48 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ] (26-08-2013, 09:20 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: [ -> ]I only bailed in after Indofood bailed in..
The lesson to be learnt is that your basis of following Indofood was correct. Imagine if it was say a fund that bought it. It is unlikely there would be a GO or support because the fund would not know the operational inside outs.
Have a good night rest
Fund mgrs scared of career risks. Sometimes they rather lose clients money than lose their jobs (if they are not the owners)
(02-09-2013, 05:33 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: [ -> ]CMZ shareholders are saved. However, if Indofood did not do its own due diligence, Indofood shareholders will suffer.
So, basically, now the risk of fraud has been transferred to Indofood.
well Indofood shares are down..tough love...
***********************
Shares of PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk, the world's biggest instant noodle maker, fell as much as 3.4 percent to 5,700 rupiah after its Singapore-listed subsidiary, China Minzhong Food Corp Ltd, came under attack by a short-seller on Monday.
China-based vegetable producer China Minzhong was hit after California-based Glaucus Research Group issued a report alleging the company misled investors about sales to its biggest customers.
Indofood owns 29.3 percent in Minzhong Food after it doubled its stake in March, buying 14.4 percent for S$85 million, to expand its presence in the ethanol and sugar industries.
Indofood shares fell 5.6 percent on Monday.
"Despite fraud accusation newsflow on China Minzhong, we remain upbeat on Indofood's outlook due to limited downside, as we believe the negatives for Minzhong's investment (account for 3 percent of Indofood's market cap) and agribusiness already in the prices," Mandiri Sekuritas analyst Herman Koeswanto said in a note on Tuesday.
Mandiri cut its target price on Indofood to 7,500 rupiah while keeping its "buy" rating.
Indofood shares were down 1.69 percent at 5,800 rupiah. The broader Jakarta Composite Index was down 3.06 percent.
1301 (0621 GMT) (Reporting by Andjarsari Paramaditha; Editing by Anupama Dwivedi)
honestly I feel quite sorry for those shortist.......
sometimes in life(well in many times....), it is not the one who are right wins but the one with the bigger fire power($$$ and etc)
I find Indofood's actions rather impulsive.....why jump in now...should have wait till you have a clearer picture....maybe they are very very confident so they are taking advantage of the situation. Honestly with them coming on not too long ago, I really doubt they really have a good picture so I deemed it impulsive......
The minority shareholders are saved.....might be a time to get out and re-read glaucus's report....You might be lucky this time round but maybe not the next......
my two cents worth....