(27-08-2013, 02:56 PM)momoeagle Wrote: [ -> ]I actually meant sixth sense as a joke. Edited my earlier post with the joke tagline 
I actually "know" you since CNA forum days (my most memorable post was on your Aztech thread, shh... different nicks, offended too many people there while pointing out analysis that's different and had to change identity and now hide in VB, which is better moderated...)... so, I believe you're smart enough to know that we were not referring to the 6th sense thing...
(27-08-2013, 01:34 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 11:49 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, be discipline is important, as important as patience, if not more.
I borrow the question, Would I shun S-chips? Well, a blanket "No" to all S-Chips might not be a good idea, with the opportunities exist out there, IMO. But a more caution approach, and higher MOS might be necessary.
Currently, the law is not at our side.
The financial accounts of S-chips are doubtful. I am not sure how can I trust the financial statements. Are they real?
So, there isn't any margin of safety to talk about.
There are some s-chips selling at PE 2. The MOS is already so big but is it enough?
There are two conditions on the statement,
caution (should means rigorous due diligence),
and higher MOS.
I agree no amount of MOS is enough, if doubt arises.
If definition (again?
) of S-Chip is those SGX listed companies with substantial business in China, than I have three (3) S-Chips in my portfolio, namely YZJ, SoundGlobal, and ITG
As a "non-anti-S-Chip" investor here, clearly a minority in this forum, I tried to be sensitive on voice-up pro-S-Chip statement, especially in this CMZ thread now
Cityfarmer, usually for MOS we determine a high enough return with determinable risk. the problem with s-chip is that there is the determinable risk and undeterminable risk are hard to quantify. more background work needs to be done and if its not safe enough perhaps we shouldnt take up
(27-08-2013, 11:49 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 11:22 AM)gutman Wrote: [ -> ]Like many of you here, I too have been hit by a few of these S-chips. I too bought into CMZ but sold off last year at a loss of a five digit sum and never look back. Most recently, it was Sinopipe. The loss is even bigger. And this is why I do concur very much with Temperament's signature, which is a constant reminder.
Having paid such big lesson fees, I think it is important that we at least pick up a thing or two. Thanks to all who so willingly shared your experiences here. It really makes the learning curve shorter for anyone who who wants to learn.
Would I shun S-chips? Maybe, maybe not. My emotions, based on my experience, tells me yes, I should avoid ALL that starts with China-something or Sino-something. However, stepping back and asking myself: what do I know about these companies, I realise it is not these companies that we should be blaming (though in my heart, I will be cursing the CEOs, SGX and whoever I can think of), Like what Jared Seah said, I have only got myself to blame. Just look at what Glaucus Research dig out, though they didn't do much, as what weijian and d.o.g. said. On hindsight, they looked so obvious.
And some of us set rules as a protection against our investment, as Cityfarmer had earlier mentioned. I too did that, except that I always break those rules. Time to get back and do these so called 2nd level thinking.....
Yes, be discipline is important, as important as patience, if not more.
I borrow the question, Would I shun S-chips? Well, a blanket "No" to all S-Chips might not be a good idea, with the opportunities exist out there, IMO. But a more caution approach, and higher MOS might be necessary.
Agree. Discipline is something I lack and really need to enforce. Thanks for reminding.
I would have sold a big chunk of my portfolio in May making a huge enough profit to buy a four room hdb flat, had I stick to my rules. As in most cases, Greed comes into play and as a result, it took away more than 70% of these profits. I continue to see these profits evaporating by the day......
I am still pondering over the question on S-chips though..... as yeokiwi rightly put, their numbers can hardly be trusted. Even qualified auditors have problem identifying any frauds, often until it is too late.
First was oceanus, now its ChinaMZ. In light with all this fabrication, Sino Grandness, Yamada green, PFood, Dukang all PRC related + Food are being hammered. I dont think its a matter of MOS issue. In the first place, SGX should not even allow such toxic to be listed. If GIC previously hold a stake in a scam companies, It only show how capable their due diligence and investment team are and what more to say about us as retail investors.
The integrity of SGX is at stake. I just feel there are too many rubbish on the market.. better beware, more will unfold when tide comes in.
(27-08-2013, 01:34 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: [ -> ]There are some s-chips selling at PE 2. The MOS is already so big but is it enough?
Margin of safety implies that the investor perceives a gap between the current valuation and the "correct" valuation.
But the "correct" valuation must be adjusted for different scenarios. It should be an "expected value" and not a "maximum value".
In other words, if there is a 50% chance that it's a fraud (value = 0) and a 50% chance that it's worth $1, then the expected value is $0.50. If the current price is $0.25 it could be argued that there is a margin of safety.
My problem is that I have no good way to estimate the probability of fraud. I cannot distinguish between 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% etc. I can only think in broad terms like "most probably not a fraud", "probably a fraud" and "I cannot prove it either way".
For the first case, I assume that it is not a fraud and proceed accordingly. For the other two categories I just avoid the company altogether. For the 170+ S-chips on SGX, I cannot even find 10 that fall into the "most probably not a fraud" category. Perhaps other forum members are more skilled at this. Myself, I just look elsewhere, especially after the expensive Minzhong reminder.
(27-08-2013, 03:46 PM)gutman Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 11:49 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 11:22 AM)gutman Wrote: [ -> ]Like many of you here, I too have been hit by a few of these S-chips. I too bought into CMZ but sold off last year at a loss of a five digit sum and never look back. Most recently, it was Sinopipe. The loss is even bigger. And this is why I do concur very much with Temperament's signature, which is a constant reminder.
Having paid such big lesson fees, I think it is important that we at least pick up a thing or two. Thanks to all who so willingly shared your experiences here. It really makes the learning curve shorter for anyone who who wants to learn.
Would I shun S-chips? Maybe, maybe not. My emotions, based on my experience, tells me yes, I should avoid ALL that starts with China-something or Sino-something. However, stepping back and asking myself: what do I know about these companies, I realise it is not these companies that we should be blaming (though in my heart, I will be cursing the CEOs, SGX and whoever I can think of), Like what Jared Seah said, I have only got myself to blame. Just look at what Glaucus Research dig out, though they didn't do much, as what weijian and d.o.g. said. On hindsight, they looked so obvious.
And some of us set rules as a protection against our investment, as Cityfarmer had earlier mentioned. I too did that, except that I always break those rules. Time to get back and do these so called 2nd level thinking.....
Yes, be discipline is important, as important as patience, if not more.
I borrow the question, Would I shun S-chips? Well, a blanket "No" to all S-Chips might not be a good idea, with the opportunities exist out there, IMO. But a more caution approach, and higher MOS might be necessary.
Agree. Discipline is something I lack and really need to enforce. Thanks for reminding.
I would have sold a big chunk of my portfolio in May making a huge enough profit to buy a four room hdb flat, had I stick to my rules. As in most cases, Greed comes into play and as a result, it took away more than 70% of these profits. I continue to see these profits evaporating by the day......
I am still pondering over the question on S-chips though..... as yeokiwi rightly put, their numbers can hardly be trusted. Even qualified auditors have problem identifying any frauds, often until it is too late.
Quote:I would have sold a big chunk of my portfolio in May making a huge enough profit to buy a four room hdb flat, had I stick to my rules. As in most cases, Greed comes into play and as a result, it took away more than 70% of these profits. I continue to see these profits evaporating by the day......
Unquote:-
This is familiar feelings for me too. So i am never really sure when to sell or buy. Therefore i always console myself it's alright to buy and sell "too early" as long as i make money. Even now my balance portfolio can ding dong quite a bit. i am tempted to sell all and start a brand new portfolio.
We all can not escape Greed, Fear & Patience. i mean if we can really know how to use each of them at the appropriate time, we all will "Fatt Tat" lol!
(27-08-2013, 03:11 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2013, 02:56 PM)momoeagle Wrote: [ -> ]I actually meant sixth sense as a joke. Edited my earlier post with the joke tagline
I actually "know" you since CNA forum days (my most memorable post was on your Aztech thread, shh... different nicks, offended too many people there while pointing out analysis that's different and had to change identity and now hide in VB, which is better moderated...)... so, I believe you're smart enough to know that we were not referring to the 6th sense thing...
I come to VB too because it is better moderated lol.
Which was your nick that you post in the Aztech thread?
Yes, Aztech was a mistake, and I never denied it wasn't.
But seriously, actually I don't know what you guys were referring to
Can pm me?
Quote:For the first case, I assume that it is not a fraud and proceed accordingly. For the other two categories I just avoid the company altogether. For the 170+ S-chips on SGX, I cannot even find 10 that fall into the "most probably not a fraud" category. Perhaps other forum members are more skilled at this. Myself, I just look elsewhere, especially after the expensive Minzhong reminder.
Ditto.
Actually, I was mildly surprised that you had invested in MinZhong since you are generally a very careful and meticulous person. To be frank, I knew it from internet before this debacle and was wondering what had I missed out.
Is it fine to put down the reasons on why CMZ was selected for investment?
Have you gone on a plant tour organised by CMZ?
If Indofood is right about its due diligent, then the present market price of $0.53 is a huge discount for the company to accumulate more.
IndoFood previous acquired price was $1.12.
Minzhong’s biggest investor isn’t concerned. PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, the parent of Indonesia’s biggest instant-noodle maker and Minzhong’s largest shareholder, is comfortable with its investment, director Thomas Tjhie said yesterday by telephone from Jakarta.
Indofood, which doubled its stake in Minzhong to 29.3 percent in March, conducted due diligence on the company before it made its investment, Tjhie said, adding that he has spoken to Minzhong’s chief financial officer about the Glaucus report.
http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docI...0BGTT6MR1R