Forgot to update last week... Think market not ready for Dec uptick
Nov CPI 3.1%
Nov Core CPI 4.0%
As of 19 Dec Cleveland Fed expecting
Dec CPI 3.33%
Dec Core CPI 3.93%
Nov PCE 2.92%
Nov Core PCE 3.43%
Dec PCE 2.99%
Dec Core PCE 3.32%
(16-11-2023, 12:34 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]Oct CPI 3.24%
Oct Core CPI 4.03%
As of 15 Nov Cleveland Fed expecting
Nov CPI 3.10%
Nov Core CPI 4.06%
Oct PCE 3.09%
Oct Core PCE 3.55%
Nov PCE 2.98%
Nov Core PCE 3.56%
Frankly market held up extremely well despite the Dec uptick with 80% chance of March Fed cut built in which I think is nuts but PCE seems coming off even faster than forecasted. I think Core CPI has to come below 3% for Fed to start cutting 25bps
Dec CPI 3.352%
Dec Core CPI 3.93%
As of 12 Jan Cleveland Fed expecting
Jan CPI 2.97%
Jan Core CPI 3.81%
Dec PCE 2.70%
Dec Core PCE 3.02%
Jan PCE 2.31%
Jan Core PCE 2.75%
(20-12-2023, 05:03 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]Forgot to update last week... Think market not ready for Dec uptick
Nov CPI 3.1%
Nov Core CPI 4.0%
As of 19 Dec Cleveland Fed expecting
Dec CPI 3.33%
Dec Core CPI 3.93%
Nov PCE 2.92%
Nov Core PCE 3.43%
Dec PCE 2.99%
Dec Core PCE 3.32%
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/propert...rty-losses
The increasing interest rate environment and poor leasing outlook due to the work from home trend has now wrecked US office building values. The decrease has been about 20% this year. As loans come due, banks are evaluating if it is worth to refinance these properties and are asking ppl to top up to reduce the debt amount when refinancing. This itself may lead to a vicious cycle of declining values as ppl get less loan amount to buy or keep properties
Looks like a second shot of higher inflation did the work of spooking the market and drowning the March rate cut hope. All in I think Fed is doing a good job this cycle with moderate 3 cuts this year (my guess is starting June with 3 consecutive cuts before Nov elections) sans the initial slow reaction of "transitory inflation", which by design or otherwise pulled US from a zero rates environment. "New Normal" is dead after ~10 years
Cleveland Fed Jan forecast last month seemed more inline than market expectations
Jan CPI 3.09%
Jan Core CPI 3.86%
As of 13 Feb Cleveland Fed expecting
Feb CPI 3.06%
Feb Core CPI 3.70%
Jan PCE 2.30%
Jan Core PCE 2.74%
Feb PCE 2.24%
Feb Core PCE 2.60%
(15-01-2024, 01:04 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]Frankly market held up extremely well despite the Dec uptick with 80% chance of March Fed cut built in which I think is nuts but PCE seems coming off even faster than forecasted. I think Core CPI has to come below 3% for Fed to start cutting 25bps
Dec CPI 3.352%
Dec Core CPI 3.93%
As of 12 Jan Cleveland Fed expecting
Jan CPI 2.97%
Jan Core CPI 3.81%
Dec PCE 2.70%
Dec Core PCE 3.02%
Jan PCE 2.31%
Jan Core PCE 2.75%
Bond market continue to be bipolar going from 6 rate cuts starting from March early this year, now to 2 rate cuts in 2H24. Mood swing to the other extreme probably wrong and Fed forecast of 3 cuts probably right with their focus more on growth than inflation per se when they raise their GDP forecast to 2.1% from 1.4% and inflation to 2.6% from 2.4%
Fed is trying to pre-empt and engineer a no landing
Forgot to update last month... inflation seems to be sticky at these levels probably for 1H24 with stronger energy prices:
Mar CPI 3.48%
Mar Core CPI 3.80%
As of 10 Apr Cleveland Fed expecting
Apr CPI 3.43%
Apr Core CPI 3.65%
Mar PCE 2.65%
Mar Core PCE 2.74%
Apr PCE 2.60%
Apr Core PCE 2.66%