17-04-2023, 11:06 AM
To be precise in your wording below, "See storms and train wrecks coming..."
If you have been averaging in 2022 I dont think you made money as of now. But if you have bought in 2020 yes. heck if you have bought nasdaq (index not stock which >3/4 dot coms didn't make it, and probably add to this discussion) during dot com peak you would have made money (non inflation adjusted) but probably not that impressive CAGR. Equities is always about your timeline hence also your CAGR... that's why marketing / academics can always shift the timeline to show what they wanna show
Obviously I've always shown in VB that I am not an avid believer of buy-and-hold regardless. I think Asset Allocation including cash allocation is important. As Keynes famously said: "When the facts change, I change my mind -what do you do, sir?" When long term macros and long term companies fundamentals change for whatever reasons and are not short term noise, you can choose to act on it or live on an ideal. Doing nothing and ready to average down is one possible action. Doing nothing up and down is probably not what I would recommend. There's a difference.
We always focus on Buffett's core holdings but in recent years he has not held onto some stocks he bought for not very long either.
It's a bit contradictory in your philosophy that you can find bargains in a market that you can't outsmart. Like I mentioned value investors generally don't subscribe to perfect market thesis. Buffett certainly think Mr market borders crazy / irrational.
If you have been averaging in 2022 I dont think you made money as of now. But if you have bought in 2020 yes. heck if you have bought nasdaq (index not stock which >3/4 dot coms didn't make it, and probably add to this discussion) during dot com peak you would have made money (non inflation adjusted) but probably not that impressive CAGR. Equities is always about your timeline hence also your CAGR... that's why marketing / academics can always shift the timeline to show what they wanna show
Obviously I've always shown in VB that I am not an avid believer of buy-and-hold regardless. I think Asset Allocation including cash allocation is important. As Keynes famously said: "When the facts change, I change my mind -what do you do, sir?" When long term macros and long term companies fundamentals change for whatever reasons and are not short term noise, you can choose to act on it or live on an ideal. Doing nothing and ready to average down is one possible action. Doing nothing up and down is probably not what I would recommend. There's a difference.
We always focus on Buffett's core holdings but in recent years he has not held onto some stocks he bought for not very long either.
(14-04-2023, 08:46 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: [ -> ](14-04-2023, 06:44 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]All the time. See the yield curve when Powell declared inflation as transitory. Or how SPAC spiked and crashed all within 18 months and other euphorias.
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You will never know when a bubble will pop; but I'm pretty sure if you are experienced enough you can identify a bubble.
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I see. Seeing storms and train wrecks not adequately discounted by market all the time, but don't know when bubble will pop.
Kinda reminds me of Jeremy Grantham.
It's definitely a valid opinion. But I'm not sure how to action upon that. It's also not a world view that I am accustomed to.
I generally see possibilities and a reason to be bullish all the time. It's just personally a more aspirational way to live my life and guide my decisions.
Edit: Also, as you said, tech has deflated and is recovering right? Implying that everyone that stayed invested in QQQ/SPY before 2021 (even during Covid corrections) has outperformed fearing a correction/storm/train-wreck all the time (being not invested in the market) isn't it? Seems to justify a long-term buy and hold mindset.
It's a bit contradictory in your philosophy that you can find bargains in a market that you can't outsmart. Like I mentioned value investors generally don't subscribe to perfect market thesis. Buffett certainly think Mr market borders crazy / irrational.
(16-04-2023, 12:57 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: [ -> ](15-04-2023, 11:10 AM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ]Been binary means one is ready to overweight/underweight their cash positions according to the seasons, rather than all in or all out situations.
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On this, personally, overweight and underweight decisions are the result of being able/not able to find interesting bargains in the market, and not macro-predictions, which I don't think I'm able to outsmart the market.