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(31-08-2015, 03:46 PM)swakoo Wrote: [ -> ]

(30-08-2015, 09:57 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]The ultimate benchmark, is the long term performance. If your friend is serious, and his performance is outstanding over years. I reckon he has a very rare talent. A talent of market insights, and able to time it right consistently over years.

The talent is different from knowledge and skill, which is transfer-able, or learn-able. We can only admire them, rather than learn from them.

Noted. Pondering and trying to break it down...

1) Determine value and safety margin
- need knowledge and skill (learnable for most people)

2) As prices fluctuate (and especially volatile in modern times), establish when difference between value/ safety margin and price is big enough to execute transaction (buy or sell) ie. timing
- need market insight (can this be acquired from experience or reading/observing?)
- need luck (sometimes)

A good summary.

Can market insight acquired from experience (and transferable)? We have been exposed to various "market insight" from books, but none seems withstand the test of time. The closest one is TA, but often fail when we need it most (unexpected swings of prices), IMO 

Fed seen deferring rate hike despite unemployment fall
The Federal Reserve is expected to put off a long-planned interest rate increase this month despite another fall in the US jobless rate, placing concerns about China ahead of US data.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busi...o.facebook

(05-09-2015, 02:58 PM)cfa Wrote: [ -> ]Fed seen deferring rate hike despite unemployment fall
The Federal Reserve is expected to put off a long-planned interest rate increase this month despite another fall in the US jobless rate, placing concerns about China ahead of US data.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busi...o.facebook

Depending on how one interpret - the rest of the world is being caught between a rock and a hard place...

Basically, QE has emboldened global financial mkts and now the gush of printed $ is holding policy makers ransom for their doings since the last GFC

U.S. jobless rate falls to lowest level in 7 years at 5.1%

The Associated Press Posted: Sep 04, 2015 9:30 AM ET Last Updated: Sep 04, 2015 5:02 PM ET
[img=620x0]http://i.cbc.ca/1.3078866.1432044430!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/us-jobs.jpg[/img]America's jobless rate fell to the lowest level since 2008 in August, new numbers showed Friday. (Tim Boyle/Bloomberg)
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Interpreting the jobs picture2:13
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• [url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-added-12-000-jobs-in-august-1.3215418]Canada added 12,000 jobs in August
  

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to a seven-year low in August as employers added a modest 173,000 jobs, a key piece of evidence for the Federal Reserve in deciding whether to raise interest rates from record lows later this month.
The Labor Department said Friday that the jobless rate fell to 5.1 per cent — a level consistent with a normal job market and the lowest since April 2008 — from 5.3 per cent.
Hiring in August was the slowest in five months, but the government revised up job growth for June and July by a combined 44,000. From June through August, the economy added a solid 221,000 jobs a month, up from an average of 189,000 from March through May. Three years of solid hiring have put nearly 8 million more Americans to work.
Friday's report appeared neither so strong nor so weak as to tilt the Fed decisively toward either a rate hike or against one. But as the final report on the job market before the Fed meets Sept. 16-17, it's one of the most significant pieces of evidence it will consider.
Muted stock reaction
Investors had a muted early reaction to the jobs numbers. Stock index futures were already sharply lower before the report came out and stayed there afterward. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged up to 2.14 percent from 2.16 percent late Thursday.
Many economists think the Fed will decide in two weeks to raise its benchmark rate for the first time in nine years. At the same time, stock market turbulence, a persistently low inflation rate and a sharp slowdown in China have complicated the decision.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at the financial information firm Markit, said Friday's report provided "frustratingly little new insight into whether the Fed will start to raise rates."
"A bumper payrolls number would have sealed the case for higher interest rates in many people minds, while a low number would have dealt a blow to any chances of tightening of policy at the next meeting," Williamson said.
Once the Fed begins raising borrowing rates, higher rates are likely to eventually ripple through the economy. Americans could face higher costs for mortgages and other loans, though the increases could be modest and gradual.
A key question is how a faltering China, slow growth in Europe and a strong dollar will affect the overall U.S. economy. The answer probably won't be clear for months.
Friday's jobs data was gathered before the U.S. stock market plunged in late August, after signs emerged that China's troubles were worsening.
"This report settles little, we think, leaving the next two weeks essentially as unsettled as they were prior to the report's release," said Dan Greenhaus, chief market strategist at institutional brokerage BTIG LLC.
Global economy uncertain
A stumbling global economy and stronger dollar, which makes U.S. exports costlier overseas, could slice a percentage point off U.S. growth through the second half of next year, according to economists at Goldman Sachs.
More so than other months, August's jobs totals typically undershoot the revisions that the government provides later. The government struggles to seasonally adjust the data for the millions of summer jobs that are eliminated throughout the month. August job gains have been revised higher by 79,000 over the past five years, Goldman Sachs estimates.
Smaller companies and services firms, which are largely insulated from global trends, are still faring well. Service sector companies, such as restaurants, retailers, banks and construction companies are expanding at the fastest pace in nearly a decade, according to a survey by the Institute for Supply Management.
But manufacturing firms have been stumbling amid the global headwinds. Manufacturers cut 17,000 jobs in August, the most since July 2013. Construction companies added just 3,000, even though home building and other construction have picked up.
The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits remains very low by historical standards — evidence that companies are still confident enough about customer demand to maintain their staff levels.
There are other signs that the U.S. job market remains solid. Americans overall have a brighter outlook: According to the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey, nearly 22 percent of Americans said jobs were plentiful in August. That matched the proportion who said jobs were hard to get - the first time since early 2008 that the two figures have been equal.

Federal Reserve: investors brace for US interest rates fallout

• THE AUSTRALIAN
  
• SEPTEMBER 14, 2015 12:00AM
  

John Durie
[Image: john_durie.png]
Senior Writer/Columnist
Melbourne

[Image: 398154-645e96c8-59f2-11e5-a7dc-18321c6979b2.jpg]
Cash rate Source: TheAustralian

[b]Investors are facing another stressful week of market volatility as the outcome of the most talked about economic event for years draws near.[/b]
The US market closed on a high on Friday ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which will determine whether US short-term rates rise for the first time in nine years.
Australia’s market — down more than 10 per cent in a month — is expected to open modestly higher today on the back of the stronger performance on Wall Street, but its value by the end of the week is much harder to pick.
“Certainly if the Fed were to move, roughly a one in four chance, the Australian dollar faces downside risk,” said HSBC’s chief economist, Paul Bloxham, noting the decision would be revealed on Friday morning local time.
Seven years since it cut rates to zero, a Wall Street Journal survey showed most economists don’t ­expect the Fed to move this week, but opinion is divided — Bank of America Merrill Lynch for one has called for a rate hike.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 0.6 per cent higher, a gain of 2 per cent for the week, raising the market to its highest level since March. The Dow is still down 7.8 per cent for the year.
The absence of the wild volatility evident in August — fuelled by turmoil on Chinese markets and an unexpected depreciation of the yuan — will give the Fed more freedom to move this week.
Its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which concludes on Thursday, will be ­followed by a press conference. The commentary will be closely watched and most expect Fed chair Janet Yellen to be extremely dovish to calm fears.
The house view at Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley is no rate cut until December, and at Macquarie Bank the call is for an October move. “Certainly the Reserve Bank is eager for the Fed to get going,” said Mr Bloxham.
Joe Hockey has encouraged the Fed to lift rates to signal the US’s economic strength. But the IMF and the World Bank are against any tightening.
The recent turmoil in financial markets has caused the change in Wall Street’s official views ­although the likes of Credit Suisse deputy Neal Soss told The Australian he would not be surprised if the Fed moved this week.
The first move is largely symbolic and it is the moves after the first that will determine how the market reacts.
BAML economist Francisco Blanch has warned a Fed rate hike will result in a downward move in all major commodity prices.
His bearish call has only one exception and that is if the Fed’s move is accompanied by an upward moved in US rates across the curve, because higher long-term rates will indicate the market thinks the economy will grow and that would favour commodity ­prices.
The Fed funds rate — currently between 0 and 0.25 per cent — only moves short-term rates and the danger is that the long end sells off in the wake of the Fed’s move.
Most expect there will be a temporary sell-off in stock prices but the longer-term reaction should be positive because a rate hike will show the Fed has confidence in the US recovery.
Concerns include the impact on developing countries and on China in particular. A Fed rate hike would tend to boost the value of the US dollar, which will put ­further pressure on the Chinese currency and suck capital away from emerging markets.
A prolonged fall in commodity prices would disadvantage Australian producers but tend to boost global economies as it would make a range of goods cheaper.
The US economy has expanded albeit slowly for six years. The jobless rate has steadily fallen to 5.1 per cent — considered to be full employment — but there are few signs of consumer price inflation.
This is not expected any time soon in the US although the naysayers will fear an early rate hike could send the economy into negative territory.
The record $US3 trillion ($4.2 trillion) in takeovers so far this year means 2015 will be a peak for corporate takeover activity and ­although largely at the big end of the market it shows there is a high degree of confidence.
US stocks are trading at about 16 times earnings forecasts, above the long-term trend rate of about 14 times, but according to Morgan Stanley cash balances are at a ­record high, as are profit margins.
Morgan Stanley’s preferred list includes an overweight call on consumer discretionary stocks, financials and energy and an underweight call on consumer staples, industrials and materials. The debt service ratio for US corporates and consumers is 9.9 per cent compared with 13.2 per cent in 2007 just before the GFC. The pace of the US recovery is at 2.5 per cent is 1 per cent below the long-term average and, as in Australia, a lack of ­productivity is being blamed.
Governments have too much debt or are worried about debt, so little is being spent on infrastructure and the lack of private investment means there is no deepening of capital. Business investment is weak as there is still surplus capacity, which shows the outlook is mixed.
Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse are calling for a 1.5 per cent Fed funds rate at the end of 2016.

• Sep 13 2015 at 3:43 PM 
   
  
  
•  Updated Sep 13 2015 at 7:36 PM 
  

Markets hungry for a more detailed projection of US Fed interest rate movements

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[img=620x0]http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/j/k/4/9/4/image.related.afrArticleLead.620x350.gjlbw9.png/1442136977548.jpg[/img]US Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen faces a difficult balancing act between lifting rates and communicating the Fed's future plans. Bloomberg
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by John Kehoe
Washington, AFR Correspondent
Investors around the globe have been on edge waiting to see ifthe US Federal Reserve will hike American interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. But now a new focal point is resolving, which is more to do with the trajectory of rates once they start rising than on timing of the first move.
Former Fed vice chairman Donald Kohn, an esteemed economist who sat alongside Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen on the interest rate committee, says it is "not such a big deal" if the Fed lifts rates on Thursday.
"Whether it's September or later in the year isn't important," Mr Kohn said in Washington.
[img=620x0]http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/j/l/f/u/p/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1442120911565.jpg[/img]Donald Kohn, former vice chairman of the US Federal Reserve, now argues it's not such a big deal whether the Fed raises rates on Thursday – it's more about the trajectory. Boomberg
"What's important is the path for interest rates once they start to increase."
Many traders on Wall Street aren't so relaxed. For the thousands of fund managers around the world betting on bonds, currencies and other securities linked to interest rates, the timing of the Fed "lift off" is crucial.
Some investors stand to win or lose big wagers on whether Dr Yellen and the 17-member Federal Open Market Committee tightens monetary policy at the end of the September 16-17 meeting or waits until upcoming meetings in October or December.
TIMING 'MATTERS'


Hedge funds also contend that if the Fed defies market expectations and lifts borrowing costs on Thursday, investors could be spooked.
Julia Coronado, chief economist at $US10.6 billion hedge fund Graham Capital, said "the timing actually does matter very much".
"The Fed would not want to surprise markets," Ms Coronado said.
"When the Fed decides that now is the time to begin that process, the message and the moment matter very much to whether the markets say 'yes this is the right and good policy' or 'this is a policy mistake'."

A premature rate rise may signal the Fed is placing greater emphasis on the strength of the American economy and the low 5.1 per cent unemployment rate, rather than weak inflation and instability in the international economy.
BALANCING ACT
The split between traditional economists such as Mr Kohn and Wall Street-aligned hedge fund professionals such as Ms Coronado, underlines the tricky balancing act Dr Yellen faces in lifting rates from near zero and communicating the Fed's future plans.
Even though the Fed has been discussing the first hike for many months, interest rate traders are pricing in a less than one in three chance that borrowing costs will rise at the conclusion of its two-day interest rate meeting on Thursday.

Bond markets are betting that persistently subdued inflation and financial market turbulence flowing from China will cause Dr Yellen and her colleagues to err on the side of caution.
Australia is not immune from international economic events, though it appears less exposed to any market shock compared with emerging market economies more exposed to US dollar flows.
The Institute of International Finance estimates that investors have yanked up to $US40 billion from emerging market portfolios since August 10, as much as 80 per cent of the magnitude observed during the 2013 "taper tantrum" when then Fed chairman Ben Bernanke hinted the $US4 trillion bond buying program would be wound down.
'WELL TELEGRAPHED'
Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens said recently, the beginning of the Fed's rate hike cycle had been "well telegraphed".
Like Mr Kohn, the RBA governor believes the market interpretation of the Fed's future path for interest rates is more important than the first move.
"Some turbulence may well occur as a result not of the first increase in US rates but of investors trying to assess how soon subsequent increases might occur," Mr Stevens said in a July 22 speech.
"But sooner or later, we have to see a start to the process of adjusting these financial prices and I would expect Australian financial markets to be able to take all that in their stride."
Dr Yellen has been at pains to emphasise in recent months that when the Fed does lift rates for the first time since June 2006, the path for future rate rises will be gradual and dependent on unfolding economic data such as economic growth, jobs and inflation.
INTEREST RATE PROJECTIONS
The bond market is pricing in only one 0.25 of percentage point hike this year and about two further rate increases in 2016.
The FOMC is this week expected to downgrade its projections for future interest rates in the coming years, helping to smooth nervous markets.
The US economic recovery has been gathering steam, seven long years after the great recession pushed the jobless rate to 10 per cent.
Economic growth rebounded to an annual pace of 3.7 per cent in the June quarter, and the 5.1 per cent unemployment rate is in the range Fed officials deem to be around the non-accelerating rate of inflation.
Yet inflation has failed to rise towards the Fed's 2 per cent target, weighed down by weak wages growth and plunging world commodity prices. China's economic slowdown and 4 per cent yuan devaluation last month have raised the spectre of global deflation.
The Fed said in July, the deflationary pressures from lower energy prices were likely to be "transitory", or in other words, temporary. It wants to be "reasonably confident" that inflation will push towards the 2 per cent target before lifting rates.
ECONOMIC THEORY
While textbook economic theory suggests a tightening labour market will cause wage pressures to creep in as employers compete for scarcer labour, to date there have been few signs of a rebound in inflation. 
The dilemma is, as former top Fed economist Jon Faust explains, the recent economic data tells us "very little" about where the economy will be in one to three years from now.
"At some point as the labour market tightens, it will provide upward pressure on inflation and we will see inflation emerge," he said. "Almost everybody believes we are getting near that point."
Mr Faust said if the Fed did raise rates, monetary policy would still be "extraordinarily accommodative" at between 0.25 and 0.50 of a percentage point.
Another negative factor weighing on the minds of Fed officials is the recent ructions in China, including a sharemarket swoon and slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.
While US trade exposures to China are only about 1 per cent of American GDP, wobbles in China's economy and sharemarket have sparked turbulence in international financial markets.
A 10 PER CENT CORRECTION
US stock indexes suffered a 10 per cent correction late last month, as jittery investors on Wall Street ditched stocks in response to plunging equities in Shanghai and fears the stumbling Chinese economy may drag the world economy into a recession.
International investors seeking safety piled into US dollar assets, pushing up the greenback and restraining US exports.
Goldman Sachs calculates that since early August, US financial conditions have tightened by about 0.50 of a percentage point, due to the rising US dollar, lower stock prices and more expensive credit for companies. It helps explain why Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius is tipping the Fed will delay a rate rise to December.
Mr Faust, now an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University, said the Fed would try to look through the international financial volatility to determine whether it would prevent inflation rising to the 2 per cent target.
"Does the volatility signal something about the underlying economy or is it like a lot of volatility in financial markets, a kind that will ultimately leave no trace in the data?"
ODDS OF RISE '50-50'
Capital Economics chief US economist Paul Ashworth believes the odds of a September rate hike are "50-50".
"The cumulative improvement in the economy over the past few years means that it is almost impossible to justify interest rates still being at near-zero," he said. "Nevertheless, a number of Fed officials clearly want to use the recent volatility in financial markets as a reason to delay the first rate hike yet again."
Mr Kohn, a 40-year Fed veteran and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said regardless of the precise lift-off timing, rates would soon need to rise.
"Monetary policy works with a lag and will have very little effect on employment or inflation over the next three, six, nine months.
"Interest rates have to increase before too long."

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/13/fed-to-hi...atter.html

Fed to hike? The problem is, it might not matter
Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex
1 Hour AgoCNBC.com

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COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

The [url=http://www.cnbc.com/federal-reserve/]Federal Reservemay or may not elect to raise its target on the federal funds rate when it meets on Thursday. Yet either way, the much-anticipated decision is unlikely to have nearly as great an impact on the economy as it might have 30 years ago.
Such is the argument in a recently released paper from the Kansas City Fed, which posits that changes in financial markets and the American economy have reduced the import of changes to the interbank lending rate.
Before 1985, an unexpected 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate would have led to a 0.2 percent increase in employment over the next two years, the study noted. But in the post-1994 period, the effect on employment is statistically insignificant, find Jonathan Willis and Guangye Cao of the Kansas City Fed.
This is obviously problematic, given that the Fed describes its ultra-low interest rate target as intended to "support continued progress toward maximum employment." If the impact of a shifting fed funds rate target on employment is indeed nil, then this strategy makes little sense.
Read MoreWill it or won't it? Wall Street mulls Fed's next move
Perhaps even more troubling, it means that the Fed's primary tool for helping the economy has been, at best, severely blunted.
'Slow recoveries' despite massive cash
[Image: 102837046-GettyImages480762554.530x298.jpg?v=1437591662]Getty Images
Janet Yellen
As the economists noted in the study: "Slow recoveries followed recessions in 1990-91, 2001, and 2007-2009, a contrast to the much more rapid recoveries that followed pre-1990 recessions. These slow recoveries occurred despite sizable monetary accommodation from the Federal Reserve, primarily through reductions in short-term interest rates."
So what led to this unfortunate situation? Willis and Cao posit that a shift in the U.S. economy has made the country less interest-rate sensitive.
For starters, the economists show that durable goods manufacturing and construction are more interest-rate sensitive than industries like health-care services and education, as the data on job gains in those industries post-Fed-move show.
This makes sense, as business decisions in service industries like health care are not as dependent upon the cost of capital as are business decisions in manufacturing industries, where expensive property or equipment often needs to be purchased before workers are hired.
Over the past few decades, the relative size of these more interest-rate-sensitive sectors has declined, as the U.S. has transitioned from a manufacturing economy to a service economy. Unsurprisingly, this appears to have diminished the nation's overall interest-rate sensitivity.
But that's not the only factor that has diminished the import of the fed funds rate. The connection between short-term rates and long-term yields appears to have diminished, with the 10-year yield now tending to initially rise in response to a decline in the federal funds rate, and any slide in longer-term yields occurring with a "longer lag in the post-1984 period."
But again, since the U.S. economy has become less interest-rate sensitive, the connection between employment and long-term rates is also not as strong as it used to be.
This is somewhat in line with a paper written by St. Louis Fed economist Stephen Williamson, who noted that "there is no work, to my knowledge, that establishes a link from QE (quantitative easing) to the ultimate goals of the Fed—inflation and real economic activity."
Read MoreSt. Louis Fed official: No evidence QE boosted economy 
Willis and Cao go on argue that changes in monetary policy "do not appear to be responsible for the shift in interest sensitivity."
Wait, I can explain
But some believe that Willis and Cao let the Fed off the hook a bit too easily.
Economist Scott Sumner retorts in a recent blog post that "Monetary policy has clearly been less expansionary during recent recessions, and that's why the recoveries have been slower."
Sumner doesn't mean that the Fed's nominal rates have been higher, but that they have been higher with respect to the economy's equilibrium interest rate. That is the threshold at which money would naturally be lent to borrowers.
Sumner, like many economists, says this rate has fallen dramatically since 1985—which means the Fed's policies have been far less expansionary than they think. Sumner's optimal Fed would pursue a more aggressive stimulative policy.
The one point most hawks and doves can agree on, then, is that the Fed's recent policies appear to have done little to spur employment—or inflation, for that matter. Whether that's the fault of policymakers or systemic changes, however, remains the hot question.
Read MoreHigh VIX, no hike? What market history tells us 
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Fed economists conclude their paper with a simple plea: "Future research should investigate whether and how monetary policy should adapt in response to these changes" in interest rate sensitivity.
—By CNBC's Alex Rosenberg.

US Fed can't derail US housing train, says Boral
DateSeptember 13, 2015

• Read later
  

[Image: 1425598239137.png]
Tim Binsted
Reporter


While financial markets remain on edge about the timing of an interest rate hike in United States, Boral chief executive Mike Kane is confident about the strength of the US economy and is looking to ramp up Boral's operations there to capitalise on what could be the most protracted home building recovery in US history.
Mr Kane said he has up to $800 million to pursue acquisitions and discussions with potential targets are underway as Boral seeks to diversify into light-weight building products including roof tiles and stone businesses, along with providers of cladding and decking materials.
Ahead of the US Federal Reserve's much anticipated monetary policy decisionthis week, Mr Kane said he is not concerned that the central bank's interest rate call could derail the economic recovery.

"I'm not at all worried about the Fed raising interest rates. Effectively rates in the US are zero. Mortgage rates are probably the lowest they've been since the 1950's," he said.
Mortgage rates in the US are about4 per cent, compared with the long run average of 6 per cent to 8 per cent. 
"You'd have to see massive moves from the Fed to impact mortgage interest rates," Mr Kane said. 
During a US investor tour last week, Boral, a $4.3 billion construction materials and building products supplier, talked up America's economy, where consumer confidence is rising, unemployment is low, and the nation's new housing stock is 40 per cent below its long-term average.
After the 2008 financial crisis crashed the US housing market to unprecedented depths, Mr Kane said the world's biggest economy is set for an elongated cycle of stronger home building.
"This is a fascinating recovery. We've been five years in a recovery already, except it hasn't felt like a recovery. It will take another five years to get from 1 million housing starts to 2 million [peak] housing starts," he said.
"That means we will have had 10 years from the trough to the peak. This would be an unprecedented period. You could have 10 years of upside earnings … it could be the longest prolonged upturn in housing in US history."
Analysts concerns quashed
At its nadir in 2008-09, the US was building just 500,000 homes a year, significantly below historic downturns of 830,000 new homes, and well below the 50 year average of 1.5 million homes a year.
Americans broke ground on just over 1 million new homes in 2014-15. This was enough for Boral's US business – which Mr Kane ran before becoming group CEO in 2012 – to deliver $6 million in earnings before interest and tax, its first profit since the financial crisis.
Mr Kane, an American who grew up in the Bronx, also quashed analyst concerns that the crash in oil prices would negatively impact building in oil-dependent states such as Texas.
"There's no impact on the housing market because of the oil price decline … Texas has been the star state through the downturn," he said.
The promise in the US economy comes as Boral is tipping home building in Australia, excluding NSW, to decline from a peak of 214,700 new homes in 2014-15.
But with his eyes on a strong US recovery, Mr Kane wants to grow his American business to diversify its earnings away from Australia and it has the balance sheet capacity to buy businesses.
Mr Kane has identified acquisition targets. "We are pretty advanced [in planning] and we know who these targets are. We are having conversations," he said.
"We have $500 million to $800 million of available capital that we could use for M&A over the next few years and we could do that without stressing our balance sheet."
In 2014-15 Boral generated $839 million, or $US695 million, of its $4.4 billion in revenue from the United states. The company aspires to grow its US revenue from $US695 million to $US2 billion. Mr Kane said that the housing recovery will get sales to $US1.4 billion and acquisitions will do the rest.
A more balanced portfolio would have something like 50 per cent of revenue from Australia, 25 per cent from Asia and 25 per cent from the US.
Any acquisitions will also move Boral's business away from high fixed cost product lines, such as bricks, toward variable cost light-weight building products.
Mr Kane is looking at smaller competitors in the fly ash, roof tile, and stone businesses, and he is also interested in acquiring providers of siding and trim, cladding, roofing and decking materials.
"I think in the next two years we can get attractive deals done," he said.
Boral's global bricks business remains under review. The company recently inked a deal with rival CSR to combine their Australian brick businesses to boost profitability.
Boral is open to doing a similar brick joint venture in the US or selling out of US bricks.
Recent private equity acquisitions of US brick businesses have fuelled expectations that a deal could be done sooner rather than later.

What your prediction? I "guess" it is more likely on Sep, rather than later...

Pimco's Ivascyn says below 50 percent chance Fed hikes rates this week

NEW YORK - Pacific Investment Management Co, one of the world's largest asset managers and advised by former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, puts a "below 50 percent chance" the Fed will raise short-term interest rates this week, Pimco Group Chief Investment Officer Dan Ivascyn told Reuters on Monday.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/pimc...rates-week

Bloomberg's view on the matter...

Why the Fed should raise rates now

NEW YORK (Sept 16): Now that U.S. stock markets have experienced their first 10% correction since 2011, investors are again looking to the Federal Reserve to bail them out. Although the Fed hasn't raised interest rates in almost 10 years, sympathetic pundits say it's still too soon to raise them now. The economist Larry Summers, runner-up for the top spot at the Fed a few years ago, says raising rates would risk "tipping some parts of the financial system into crisis."

How did our financial system weaken to the point where a quarter of a percent increase in rates is more than it can handle?
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...-rates-now

The promotion of excessive comsumption and using debt to fund this desire for instant gratification. the removal of real minted coins for payment and using notes cause many problems too. online payments will cause problems too down the road. things can spiral out of control easily as monies can be shifted so quickly to destabilise an economy. Assets and debt are too interlinked...

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