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Federal Reserve decision: get used to more volatility if Fed raises rates, says RBA’s Debelle

• THE AUSTRALIAN
  
• SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 12:00AM
  

Adam Creighton
[Image: adam_creighton.png]
Economics Correspondent
Sydney

Andrew Main
[Image: andrew_main.png]
Senior Business Reporter
Sydney

[Image: 848260-941ba034-5c5b-11e5-8de3-ef21996958ae.jpg]
S&P/ASX 200 Source: TheAustralian
[b]A more erratic bond market and the spread of high-frequency traders will likely worsen feared financial volatility in the wake of any increase in US interest rates this week, but investors should get used to it, a senior Reserve Bank official has said.[/b]
Guy Debelle, the RBA’s head of financial markets, yesterday said new regulations on banks in the wake of the global financial crisis that increased the cost of holding and trading bonds meant the “depth” of banks’ trading books was “nowhere near as good, and worse than it’s been for quite some time”.
“Overshooting (of prices) will be more likely and that can have long-lasting and more deleterious consequences,” he said, speaking at an Institute of Actuaries conference in Sydney.
With financial markets indicating a one-in-three chance the US Federal Reserve will lift US ­interest rates by early tomorrow morning, investors worldwide are bracing for the kind of volatility that rocked global markets in 2013 when the Fed hinted it might “taper” its then bond-buying ­program.
Mr Debelle said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if volatility increased after the meeting, which concludes Thursday Eastern Time and could produce the first increase in US official interest rates in nine years.
“There’s a decently large chunk of people in market who have never experienced rates going up, or even seen them change at all,” he said.
“We’ve had low rates for nine years so behaviours have probably evolved that aren’t sustainable,” he added.
Richard Coppleson, former head of sales trading at Goldman Sachs Australia, said the Australian sharemarket had yesterday made up all the ground lost on Tuesday, closing two points ahead overall at just over 5098 on the S&P/ASX 200 index. The Australian dollar traded in the top half of the US71c range, the highest it has been since late August.
Asian markets were also buoyant, with Shanghai Composite Index surging in the last hour of trading to finish up 4.9 per cent at 3152.26. The benchmark notched its sharpest daily gain in percentage terms in two weeks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 2.4 per cent while Tokyo ended 0.8 per cent higher.
“There’s a lot of volatility still and of course the Fed meeting is keeping a lot of investors on the sidelines but the news that we have a new prime minister with a good grasp of economics is turning into a bull factor in markets such as New York,’’ Mr Coppleson said.
“The prospect of Scott Morrison as Treasurer is also being seen as a positive locally,” he added.
Mr Debelle raised questions about the resilience of high-­frequency traders, which contribute a third of the trades in the Australian government bond market and half in the US.
“These firms are providing increased liquidity at the top of the book, but are not necessarily contributing to the depth of the book, given their preference to trade in small size, as well as in many cases, inability to trade in large size ­because of balance sheet ­constraints,” he said.
“(But) it is important to adjust to the current environment rather than wishing it was something else,” Mr Debelle said, pointing out that it was the intention of new regulations to curb excessive trading that had been “underpriced”.
“It is not going back to what it was any time soon.”
He said it was “neither here nor there” whether they rise this week or in coming months. “This is the most well telegraphed rate rise in the history of rate rises; if you’re not ready you sure as hell have been warned,” he said.
Mr Coppleson said that the US market appeared finally to be ­getting out of its habit of dropping at positive economic news because of fears of a rate rise. “Positive news there is now being seen for what it is and meanwhile, China appears to be finding some firm ground.’’
“Global market falls tend to happen in September so this one we’ve had was a month early. We’re getting into the season now when some $19 billion or $20bn in dividends are going to be paid out and that’s a positive in one of the highest-yielding markets in the world. “It’s clear there will be a lift in rates from the Fed sooner or later and once it happens, he said, there’s a good chance markets will move up.’’

Doubts grow that US Fed will lift interest rates

• MIN ZENG, IRA IOSEBASHVILI
  
• THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
  
• SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 10:47AM
  

[Image: 417610-f626af08-5cd8-11e5-8de3-ef21996958ae.jpg]
The odds of a rate rise have dropped to 21 per cent, down from 25 per cent earlier this week. Source: AP
[b]Wall Street is sceptical that the Federal Reserve has room to raise short-term interest rates tomorrow, underscoring persistent doubts about the health of the global economy and financial markets following seven years of easy policy.[/b]
Some of the biggest names in the financial industry say a rate rise now would be unwise. And some executives whose firms would benefit from higher rates nevertheless don’t expect an increase early tomorrow morning (AEST). The view marks a sharp reversal from earlier this year, when a mid-2015 increase was widely expected.
“I wouldn’t do it,” Goldman Sachs Group chief executive Lloyd Blankfein said at a breakfast interview with The Wall Street Journal. He said wage growth has been anaemic, a sign of labour-market slack, and inflation quiescent. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and investor Warren Buffett have lately conveyed similar sentiments.
The central bank is expected to disclose its decision on the short-term benchmark interest rate at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting.
The Fed has kept rates near zero since December 2008 in a bid to hold down financing costs for consumers and businesses and bolster economic growth. It hasn’t raised rates since June 2006.
Some say doing so would risk a repeat of central-bank moves that have drawn criticism, such as the European Central Bank’s decision to raise interest rates in 2008, just before the acute stage of the financial crisis, and the Fed’s decision to tighten policy in 1937, a move some commentators say added years to the Depression.
Others warn of financial-market volatility that could spill over into the economy, setting back what has been an uneven recovery.
Mr Summers, now a Harvard University professor, said that, with inflation contained, “it is the wrong time” for the Fed “to be hitting the brakes.”
Mr Buffett, chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, said a more aggressive stance by the Fed on rates could be damaging given the softness in the economy.
“If our rates got substantially higher than Europe’s, I would not think that would necessarily be good for exports for this country,” Mr Buffett said during a Sept. 8 CNBC television interview. “In economics, you can never just do one thing. There’s always an, ‘And then what?’ ”
Steve Kandarian, chief executive of MetLife, the nation’s biggest life insurer by assets, said in an email that he believes the Fed “will probably wait, given recent volatility in the markets.” Insurers are generally expected to benefit from higher rates.
Raymond Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge-fund firm, said in a recent note to investors that he believes the Fed may raise rates, then be forced into a fresh round of looser monetary policy in the form of so-called quantitative easing, or bond purchases that increase the size of the central bank’s balance sheet.
Federal-funds futures, used by investors and traders to place bets on central-bank policy, showed a 21 per cent likelihood of a rate increase tomorrow, down from 25 per cent earlier this week, according to data from CME Group Inc. The odds were 45 per cent a month ago and 58 per cent six months ago, according to CME.
Developing economies, notably China and Brazil, have faltered in recent months. Some say a Fed rate increase risks exacerbating the conditions that have prompted investors to flee emerging markets, potentially bringing turmoil from overseas into US markets. Rising rates also tend to boost the dollar, hurting US exports and limiting inflation, which has been below the Fed’s target for a long span. In June, economists at Goldman Sachs pushed back their expectations for when the rate lift-off will start, to December from September.
One reason for caution: the so-called taper tantrum that rattled the bond market in mid-2013, after then-Fed chief Ben Bernanke said the central bank was preparing to end its monthly bond purchases.
The remarks sent the 10-year Treasury yield soaring, from around 1.6 per cent at the start of May 2013 to about 2.5 per cent at the end of June, generating record cash outflows from bond funds.
Yields have slumped since then amid concern about the pace of global growth. The 10-year Treasury yield overnight was 2.301 per cent. Some analysts worry a market rout and higher interest rates could make financing difficult to come by for many companies with lower credit ratings, crimping spending and output.
The bearish turn has soured some investors on any rate increases this year.
The odds for an increase at the December 2015 meeting were 65 per cent today, according to CME, down from 73 per cent a month ago.
Not everyone believes the idea the Fed won’t act. Ashish Shah, head of credit investments at AllianceBernstein, which had $US486 billion in assets under management at the end of July, said markets would be better off if the Fed removes the uncertainty over the timing of the first rate hike.
Dick Kovacevich, former chairman and chief executive of Wells Fargo & Co, said the Fed should focus on the economy’s expansion and signs of labour-market health.
“The only focus the Fed should be having at the moment … is the economy growing and employment,” Mr Kovacevich said. “Inflation will take care of itself.”
Others say the Fed will act to limit any damage.
BlackRock CEO Laurence D. Fink believes a rate increase will come “with dovish commentary” from Fed officials expressing their desire to normalise interest rates and reduce uncertainty.
Ethan Harris, global economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the market has been wrong about interest-rate expectations throughout the post-financial-crisis period, generally underestimating the damage incurred in the 2008 meltdown and the degree to which low interest rates would be required for healing. He said the market is now wrong again, but in the other direction, underestimating the robustness of a US expansion that has created the strongest monthly job gains since the dotcom boom.
“The bond market views this economy as a fragile patient that’s just gotten out of the emergency room and can blow over with the smallest gust of wind,” Mr Harris said.
Wall Street Journal

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/17/fed-holds...-2016.html

Financial mkts these days seems to be holding central bankers hostage as a result of their own doings... no hike for now but the anticipation of when, how and how much will keep financial mkts on the edge...

Federal Reserve holds rate at zero; cites China worries

   Yellen answers questions during a news conference after the meeting.AFP
Published
5 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate locked at zero Thursday, citing worries about how the slowdown in China will hit the US economy.
Fed chairman Janet Yellen said the economy continues to grow moderately and that a rate increase could still take place before the end of the year.
However, policy makers were still focused on the spillover from China’s troubles and those in other major emerging market economies.

“A lot of our focus has been on risks around China, but not just China, emerging markets more generally and how they may spill over to the United States,” she said at a news conference following the rate announcement.
“We’ve seen significant outflows of capital from those countries, pressures on their exchange rates and concerns about their performance going forward.
“The question is whether or not there might be a risk of a more abrupt slowdown than most analysts expect.”
At the end of a two-day meeting, such concerns prevented the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from making the long-expected decision to begin raising the benchmark federal funds rate from the zero level, where it has sat since the financial crisis in 2008.
Related Story
Dow, S&P 500 fall as Fed keeps rates at zero

After years on an easy-money stance, the prospect of a Fed rate hike has added to turmoil in global markets. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have urged the Fed to be cautious as it begins tightening the reins on credit.
The decision came even as the FOMC stressed the US economy is on course and it increased its forecast for growth this year to 2.1 percent.
YEAR-END HIKE FORECAST
In the news conference, Yellen stressed that one of the two key pivots for policy, the labour market, was strengthening and that the other, inflation, was still too low but that was mainly due to “transient” effects, like the plunge in oil prices.
The FOMC statement said that household spending and business investment were increasing at a moderate pace, and that home construction was picking up, but exports were “soft”.
It also said the labour market had strengthened since the July FOMC meeting, with slack diminishing since earlier this year.
“We are looking at, as I emphasised, a US economy that has been performing well and impressing us by the pace at which it is creating jobs, and the strength of domestic demand,” Yellen said.
But, she said, “we have some concerns about negative impacts from global developments and some tightening of financial conditions.”
Nevertheless, members of the FOMC made clear, in projections accompanying their announcement Thursday, that they still expect rates to rise by the end of the year.
Of the 17 Fed officials at the meeting, 13 indicated they expect a rate hike by the end of this year, most of them pointing to a 0.25-0.50 per cent range.
The decision to hold pat was not surprising to most analysts.
“The Federal Reserve decided to err on the side of caution” though it came across as more dovish than expected, said Harm Bandholz of UniCredit.
Some were critical of the central bank for timidity.
“In one word: Paralysed,” quipped Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics in a client note.
“We see a Fed which knows the labour market is tightening but can’t yet bring itself to overlook its (excessive) fears about the global outlook.”
Markets had trouble discerning what Yellen’s remarks bode for the future.
After wild swings Wall Street gave up gains and the S&P 500 ended down 0.26 per cent.
The dollar fell about 1.2 per cent, however, to US$1.1422 against the euro.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/18/a-third-m...-hold.html

A 'third mandate' for Fed as China worries take hold
Dhara Ranasinghe | @DharaCNBC
9 Hours AgoCNBC.com

[/url]

5

COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Has the U.S. Federal Reserve become the world's economic guardian? The central bank's decision not to lift interest rates this week because of weakening global growth and a recent surge in market volatility has sparked talk of a "third mandate." 
Analysts say that explicit references by the Fed following its meeting on Thursday to the China slowdown and its impact mark a significant departure for the central bank, which is mandated to ensure job creation and price stability in the U.S. economy.
"The Federal Reserve's third mandate appears to be global financial stability," Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management, said in a note.
"The U.S. central bank has backed away from its first rate rise in over nine years, saying that international economic and financial weakness could dampen activity in the U.S.," he said.
[Image: 103008165-China_economy2.530x298.jpg?v=1442577190]Greg Baker | AFP | Getty Images
Economists had been split over whether the Fed would deliver a long-anticipated rate increase this week and market expectations for when rates will rise have been pushed back further following a dovish Fed statement.
In fact, one reason for the scaling back of rate-hike speculation in recent weeks has been growing concern about weakness in China – the world's second-largest economy after the U.S. – and a sharp sell-off in emerging and developed markets in August.
According to Deutsche Bank, global stock markets lost $5 trillion of their value in six days in August.
"The argument that global market developments are playing second fiddle to U.S. economic developments is a tenuous one, especially if the epicentre of global economic weakness is China – which is very important to U.S. economy," Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy, told CNBC.

[url=http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/17/did-the-fed-just-introduce-a-third-mandate.html][Image: 103006304-RTS1M8H.80x60.jpg?v=1442516155]
Pisani: Did the Fed just make a third mandate?
"It's clear that what's happening in China, especially in recent months, is having a massive deflationary impact so it's about time we heard the Fed was concerned about China," he said.
Beijing is targeting a full-year growth rate of around 7 percent, which would be the slowest rate in almost 25 years. And there are concerns that the target will be missed amid weak economic data and a rout in Chinese stock markets that threaten to undermine confidence further.
Weakness in China's economy, which has helped drive global growth for decades, has far reaching ramifications – commodity prices and emerging markets for instance have all been hit hard by China's woes.
[Image: 103002119-RTS1E4W.80x60.jpg?v=1442421661]
Did the Fed make the right decision onThursday?
"It's not so much the volatility in markets but the volatility in markets that reflects concerns about China and oil prices that have been a big mover and shaker in the past 18 months," Francesco Garzarelli, co-head of European Macro at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC on Friday, talking about whether the Fed has taken on a third mandate.
"So to the extent that China and oil tell us about global economic conditions and where monetary policy elsewhere is going to go, I think it's legitimate for them (Fed policymakers) to bring that on board," he said.
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[Image: 100366298-dhara-ranasinghe-headshot.60x6...1357742072]
Dhara RanasingheAssociate Producer

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/18/the-fed-h...lypse.html

The Fed has to deal with its own zombie apocalypse
Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
4 Hours AgoCNBC.com

[/url]

229

COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

The Federal Reserve is scared—of lots of things, some obvious, some not so much.
Thursday's Fed decision to delay yet again the long-awaited liftoff from zero rates gave rise to still more speculation about why the U.S. central bank seems so perpetually reticent to normalize monetary policy.
There are all the usual suspects, such as low inflation, weak wage gains despite strong job growth and China plus the rest of the emerging global economy.
One reason that hasn't gotten much attention is the need for the Fed to keep rates low both for government debt and the corporations that now have $12.5 trillion in debt.
Among the prime beneficiaries of zero interest rates have been low-rated companies that have been able to borrow money at rates often in the 5 to 6 percent range.
A move to higher rates, even a small one, could have outsized impacts on those bad balance sheet companies.That puts the Fed in a bit of a Faustian bargain with issuers and holders that has become hard to break.
[Image: 103009166-GettyImages-488754448.530x298....1442599050]Getty Images
Federal Reserve Board Chairwoman Janet Yellen answers questions following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting Sept. 17, 2015 in Washington, DC.
Not only has high-yield issuance exploded in the days of the central bank's ultra-easy accommodation, but the bottom of the ladder has gotten more crowded as well. 
Read More[url=http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/07/this-list-of-junk-companies-keeps-getting-longer.html]This list of 'junk' companies keeps getting longer
About a quarter of all debt issued now in the junk universe is held by companies rated B3 or lower, according to Moody's. Credit standards have continued to loosen as well, with the ratings agency reporting that its covenant quality index—essentially a read on how strict the conditions are on corporate borrowers—is at record lows.
"Businesses as a whole in the U.S. are better placed now to absorb any shocks that might hit them," Bodhi Ganguli, senior economist at Dun & Bradstreet, said in a phone interview. "However, there are pockets of greater weakness like these zombie companies. These pockets are likely to see some more turbulence than overall conditions. Some companies definitely will go out of business."
It isn't just the zombies, though, that should worry about higher rates.
Corporate America overall has been piling on the debt, which grew 8.3 percent in the second quarter, according to figures the Fed released Friday.
Read MoreThe junk bond market 'is having a coronary'
Though total issuance has declined to its lowest level in three years, it's been a year for big deals in the junk market, with the average high-yield deal globally at a record $587 million, according to Dealogic.
Investors are taking notice to the problems in the junk market and the added issues from wobbly monetary policy.
Michael Contopoulos, high-yield strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the high-yield space is a mess no matter what the Fed does. Global economic weakness and deteriorating fundamentals are making it increasingly harder for the Fed to underwrite junk debt through a zero funds rate.
"We have been saying for months that the global economy is weak and the Fed's dovish disposition (Thursday) only bolsters our view," Contopoulos said in a note to clients. "Domestically it becomes harder to argue that a strong dollar and the lack of inflation can be viewed as transitory, and this headwind is continuing to hurt high-yield corporates."
Earnings for junk companies have been "incredibly weak," he added, pointing out that "leverage is at all-time highs" while "defaults and downgrades are creeping into the market."
Read MoreMarket fear rises after Fed non-move
Fed Chair Janet Yellen often uses the word "transitory" to describe various hot spots of problems, but the issues with high-yield could be more secular in nature.
"The situation almost seems unbelievable, as everything that seems to go wrong is explained as being isolated ... and treated as a surprise," Contopoulos said.
Junk bonds as a group haven't done much this year despite their traditional correlation to equity markets, with the Barclays High Yield Corporate Composite Index up less than 1 percent, though it's fallen more than 3 percent over the past three months.
The SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond exchange-traded fund has seen $436 million in inflows for 2015, but that has reversed lately. The fund has seen $211 million in outflows since the beginning of August, according to ETF.com.
Contopoulos warned investors that the Fed's indecision will have consequences and to not "try to be a hero" by continuing the reach for yield.
"The Fed had an opportunity (Thursday) to hike rates and begin to build a cushion should the global slowdown be so severe it can't be ignored. Instead, they chose to wait," he said. "We're in the midst of watching a slow-moving train wreck, and in our view the Fed confirmed as much."
[Image: 100806251-100806251-jeff-cox-silo-1.60x6...1405700749]
Jeff CoxFinance Editor

RBA’s Glenn Stevens urges Federal Reserve to raise rates

• THE AUSTRALIAN
  
• SEPTEMBER 19, 2015 12:00AM
  

Adam Creighton
[Image: adam_creighton.png]
Economics Correspondent
Sydney

• VIDEO
  
• IMAGE
  

[Image: 907993-c98a0d54-5df1-11e5-8774-67e65f32a404.jpg]
Australian dollar Source: TheAustralian

[b]The governor of the Reserve Bank, Glenn Stevens, has encouraged the US Federal Reserve to stop pussy-footing around with interest rates and start unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policy, dismissing gloomy assessments of Australia’s economy and playing down fears higher rates in the US will prompt destabilising financial volatility.[/b]
Speaking hours after the Fed kept its official interest rate on hold and presented a surprisingly “dovish” economic outlook predicated on concerns about China, Mr Stevens said the US economy was clearly improving and “everyone knew” this had to be reflected in higher interest rates.
“I think it’s a better thing really if the Fed can get the lift-off achieved,” he said, referring to the belief of many economists that near-zero interest rates in the US are fuelling financial instability.
“In the end there is always going to be some market dynamic, some weak piece of data or some argument to say, ‘Don’t do it just yet’. There is always going to be that, and one day you are just going to have to do it,” he added, alluding to the bout of financial volatility in China following the recent 40 per cent drop in the Chinese equity market and unexpected depreciation of the yuan.
“Whether that financial volatility itself serves further to dampen growth prospects remains to be seen,” he said, speaking in Canberra at his six-monthly testimony before the Senate Economics committee.
The Fed’s decision, announced early Friday morning local time, prompted a 1.5 per cent surge in the Australian dollar to almost US73c, but the local currency soon returned to US72c, around which it hovered yesterday.
Equity markets responded more calmly to the news. The market ended an eventful week, which also saw a new Prime Minister in Malcolm Turnbull, in the black. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 finished up 0.7 per cent up on Friday at 5,185, almost 2 per cent higher than its Monday opening.
Mr Stevens acknowledged the recent cut in the projection for global economic growth but said the Australian economy — which grew at 2 per cent over the year to June — was doing relatively well and shouldn’t be compared to the era before the global financial crisis.
“We have a bit of a tendency right now in the general public discourse to be more negative than the facts actually warrant,” he said, highlighting employment had grown by 200,000 over the past year and business trading conditions had improved.
“It is not the ebullient consumer and business community that we had from the late nineties through to 2006, but I am sorry, that is not coming back,” he said, pointing to solid business conditions and the already far weaker Australian dollar that was helping tourism and education providers.
“If we were to try to line up the current exchange rate with various fundamentals you’d be hard pressed to say they are seriously misaligned,” he said, noting however that exchange rates tend to “overshoot”.
Mr Stevens indicated the Reserve Bank was not inclined to change its own policy rate: “We are different; we didn’t have the deep downturn. Should we (lower rates) a bit more? We are content where we are.”
Despite the clarification, another interest rate cut by the RBA within the next 12 months is still likely.
Shane Oliver, AMP’s chief economist, said the Fed’s decision was “mixed blessing” for Australia.
“It would have been better to have seen the Fed able to raise interest rates as it would signal greater confidence in global growth and ongoing downwards pressure on the value of the Australian dollar,” he said.
Mr Oliver believes the dollar will fall to around US60c in the next 12 months.
“If the Chinese economy were to experience the fabled hard landing that many people have talked about for years — and which so far hasn’t happened — you would expect in that world the exchange rate’s probably going to go down, probably quite a bit, and that will be one of the key mechanisms that helps the Australian economy cope.”
Mr Stevens said the “normal” level of interest rates globally was likely to be significantly lower than it was before the global financial crisis, but stressed this new level was not near zero.

(18-09-2015, 07:41 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Federal Reserve holds rate at zero; cites China worries
 

This is funny. Wasn't it only a little while ago that her fellow vice-chairman Stanley Fischer reminded everyone that the FED ain't the central banker of the world and its mandate was fully focused on the tax-paying citizens of the Free World?

Oh wait, it looks either Dr Jane has gladly decided to assume the role of World Savior OR she wants to keep the USD more competitive and guarded against the ill effects of globalization that will unleash onto her Free World?

(19-09-2015, 11:47 AM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ]

(18-09-2015, 07:41 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Federal Reserve holds rate at zero; cites China worries
 

This is funny. Wasn't it only a little while ago that her fellow vice-chairman Stanley Fischer reminded everyone that the FED ain't the central banker of the world and its mandate wasnt fully focused on the tax-paying citizens of the Free World?

Oh wait, it looks either Dr Jane has gladly decided to assume the role of World Savior OR she wants to keep the USD more competitive and guarded against the ill effects of globalization that will unleash onto her Free World?

Some of the US economic figures are also fudged lah, their "real" unemployment rate would be super high if they included those drop out of workforce and gave up looking for work.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_dat...ent-charts

You can roughly guess from their lack of wage growth things are not looking rosy at all for them. on Main street they are actually going through depression which is masked by the asset inflation from the successive QE.

Japan stimulus is not working and European one is probably near its end of life effect as well. Now only left China haven't gone to zero interest rate yet. Central banks running out of ammo liao...

(19-09-2015, 12:33 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]

(19-09-2015, 11:47 AM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ][quote='greengiraffe' pid='119813' dateline='1442533289']
Federal Reserve holds rate at zero; cites China worries
 

This is funny. Wasn't it only a little while ago that her fellow vice-chairman Stanley Fischer reminded everyone that the FED ain't the central banker of the world and its mandate wasnt fully focused on the tax-paying citizens of the Free World?

Oh wait, it looks either Dr Jane has gladly decided to assume the role of World Savior OR she wants to keep the USD more competitive and guarded against the ill effects of globalization that will unleash onto her Free World?

Some of the US economic figures are also fudged lah, their "real" unemployment rate would be super high if they included those drop out of workforce and gave up looking for work.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_dat...ent-charts

You can roughly guess from their lack of wage growth things are not looking rosy at all for them. on Main street they are actually going through depression which is masked by the asset inflation from the successive QE.

Japan stimulus is not working and European one is probably near its end of life effect as well. Now only left China haven't gone to zero interest rate yet. Central banks running out of ammo liao...

told u liao, better hide yr $ in biscuit tin... none of the stock picks will work especially small caps... no need waste time