(02-10-2013, 09:52 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2013, 09:22 AM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ] (01-10-2013, 04:34 PM)AlphaQuant Wrote: [ -> ] (01-10-2013, 04:28 PM)felixleong Wrote: [ -> ]how come market never crash? isnt this serious?
the shutdown doesn't really have a HUGE impact - initial estimates are ard 50-100mio per day (although i've seen worst estimates). But in comparison, QE3 with its 85bio per mth is equivalent to 2.8bio per day of stimulus (assuming 30 days in a mth). In a perverse way, the fiscal impasse prob means more QE3 to come so equities are rallying somewhat.
The big one should be with the debt limit - imagine tons of blokes holding UST (hedgies, mutual funds with all their powerful lobbyists) - all these failing to get their coupons after mid-Oct will be very scary...
I'm beginning to think that the Fed had been pre-warned by Obama admin about their tough stance, which explained Bernanke's about turn statement.
Market crept up during the 95-96 standoff. My bigger concern is actually a debt default. Theoretically as I explained above, it is a legislative technicality but the other technicality is what would the rating agencies do???
I am more concern what would financial community do. Technicalities are somehow predictable and rational, thus controllable. Once the financial community dismiss the "risk-free" definition, then it is not within US gov or Fed control to pull them back. Market sentiment is unpredictable, or at least hard to predict.
Quote:Market sentiment is unpredictable, or at least hard to predict.[b]
It is 101% the truth. Without human's sentiment, i think there is no market. Not only for stocks; it is for everything in life.
"Buay Song, Boh Tang Kong LOL"
IMHO.
US garmen is screwed, in short they are broke!
its like a kid that maxed out all his credit cards
Recession risk in Singapore from US default
While the United States government shutdown has had limited impact on Singapore’s financial markets and trade, a default could have more severe consequences, such as sending the economy here into recession, economists warned.
CIMB economist Song Seng Wun said: “If the worst case happens and the US defaults, that would mean that its economic recovery, which is just starting to gather pace, could be derailed and possibly sending it into a recession. The US is the leading economy: If they sneeze, we catch the cold.”
“If more jobs are cut than created in the US and consumer spending is affected, especially during the peak Christmas season, orders would be cancelled, factories would be less busy. Singapore could be pulled into a technical recession in the fourth quarter,” Mr Song said. He added that Singapore is likely to register a contraction in the third quarter.
The shutdown since Tuesday is already costing the US economy US$300 million (S$374 million) a day, according to research firm IHS, and Goldman Sachs projects that a three-week stalemate could cut as much as 0.9 per cent off US gross domestic product this quarter.
But OCBC’s Head of Treasury Research and Strategy Selena Ling said the impact of a US default would not be as severe as Greece’s. “I think the US is not quite in the same camp as Greece. They have the money; it’s a matter of the politicians agreeing on how to spend it.”
And a default may not be all bad news, at least in the immediate aftermath. A weaker US economy would mean that the Federal Reserve would likely continue with its stimulus measures, keeping interest rates low in the short term and helping to hold down mortgage rates in Singapore.
“It’s quite ironic from that angle, that it may be more beneficial for mortgage holders. The more severe the fiscal story is, the more accommodative the Fed is likely to be. Just like what happened with Lehman, the Fed pumped a lot of liquidity into the system,” Ms Ling said.
But Suntec Real Estate analyst Colin Tan said that a default would add uncertainty to global markets, which will hit property market sentiment negatively. Despite accommodative monetary policy, rates will rise over the longer term, as creditors lose faith in the US’ ability to repay debt.
But the odds are that squabbling members of the US Congress will find a way through their differences, economists said.
UOB economist Francis Tan said: “The US will push through eventually, even at the eleventh hour. The economy is not in great shape now, and the government wouldn’t want to risk the chance of the recovery story getting worse.” Lee Yen Nee
(03-10-2013, 08:14 PM)felixleong Wrote: [ -> ]US garmen is screwed, in short they are broke!
its like a kid that maxed out all his credit cards
Fair to say that you don't understand the economics within us government.
Us government has no problem to repay its debt. The fight is about how much us government should use debt to fund its entitlement program.
Remove some entitlement program, us government has surplus just like Singapore government.
Don't read too much into mainstream media and populist ideas.
More likely scenario is US Govt will monetize debts by inflation and make the world pays for it.
US Govt Budget Surplus- tan ku ku. You need a dotcom boom or housing boom to do that.
(04-10-2013, 09:37 AM)opmi Wrote: [ -> ]More likely scenario is US Govt will monetize debts by inflation and make the world pays for it.
US Govt Budget Surplus- tan ku ku. You need a dotcom boom or housing boom to do that.
Another one has no idea of how US government spends its budget.
If US government does similar things as Singapore government, no unemployment benefit, no social security, no medical aids/care, US government will have no problem with its budget.
(04-10-2013, 10:01 AM)felixleong Wrote: [ -> ]http://www.amazon.com/Real-Crash-America...1250004470
freedom go read this...
You read too much populist and dumb ideas, and don't have your own thinking.
Think of it once for yourself and tell me where US government is spending its money and how much tax US government collects.
you have your ideas
I have my ideas
there's always 2 sides to a coin, good luck to you
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