CIMB and Phillip forecasted FY17 net profit of rmb 291m and 344m respectively. I don't know how Phillip based their forecast on. 9-month is 209m and to bump up to 344m then 4Q17's net profit must be extremely high, which I think unlikely to achieve. However, perhaps Phillip know much more than I do so we shall see. I will take 291m-310m for FY17 nonetheless.
Nextinsight took the average of the net income estimated by the 2 brokerages, that is RMB 317 mil.
https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archiv...in-2-weeks
Net income of RMB 291 mil for FY2017 is already a very good result. Their past results are:
Net income (RMB mil)
2012 32.0
2013 76.7
2014 220.2
2015 195.2
2016 221.7
The growth of the global automobile market may be slowing. But Sunsine will capture a bigger % of the growth in rubber chemicals because its competitors, Shandong Yanggu Huatai and Tianjin Kemai, are having difficulties finding money to expand and fill the demand supply gap in China arising from the enforcement by the various authorities against highly pollutive factories.
With the positive profit guidance, should I 'resurrect' my forecast of rmb 300m FY17's net profit? With 9M17 standing at 209m, and 4Q16's net profit being 66m, 4Q yoy must see increase of at least 39% to hit 91m thus achieving full year net profit of 300m. Now this seems possible and we may see eps of at least sgd 13 cents and dividend of at least 2.6 cents (including.5 interim dividend) if things progress smoothly.
(13-02-2018, 05:51 PM)Bluechipfan Wrote: [ -> ]With the positive profit guidance, should I 'resurrect' my forecast of rmb 300m FY17's net profit? With 9M17 standing at 209m, and 4Q16's net profit being 66m, 4Q yoy must see increase of at least 39% to hit 91m thus achieving full year net profit of 300m. Now this seems possible and we may see eps of at least sgd 13 cents and dividend of at least 2.6 cents (including.5 interim dividend) if things progress smoothly.
Bluechipfan
Do you think 39% increase is substantial to warrant a positive profit guidance?
(14-02-2018, 10:37 AM)Young Investor Wrote: [ -> ] (13-02-2018, 05:51 PM)Bluechipfan Wrote: [ -> ]With the positive profit guidance, should I 'resurrect' my forecast of rmb 300m FY17's net profit? With 9M17 standing at 209m, and 4Q16's net profit being 66m, 4Q yoy must see increase of at least 39% to hit 91m thus achieving full year net profit of 300m. Now this seems possible and we may see eps of at least sgd 13 cents and dividend of at least 2.6 cents (including.5 interim dividend) if things progress smoothly.
Bluechipfan
Do you think 39% increase is substantiated to warrant a positive profit guidance?
I don't know. This kind of announcement is arbitrary in nature. I recall someone somewhere ever 'back testing' to see how substantial the increases were after such announcements but results inconclusive. I sure hope it is 139% but taking Phillip securities' forecast as guidance, maybe we can expect full year net profit of rmb 344m?
(14-02-2018, 01:48 PM)Bluechipfan Wrote: [ -> ] (14-02-2018, 10:37 AM)Young Investor Wrote: [ -> ] (13-02-2018, 05:51 PM)Bluechipfan Wrote: [ -> ]With the positive profit guidance, should I 'resurrect' my forecast of rmb 300m FY17's net profit? With 9M17 standing at 209m, and 4Q16's net profit being 66m, 4Q yoy must see increase of at least 39% to hit 91m thus achieving full year net profit of 300m. Now this seems possible and we may see eps of at least sgd 13 cents and dividend of at least 2.6 cents (including.5 interim dividend) if things progress smoothly.
Bluechipfan
Do you think 39% increase is substantiated to warrant a positive profit guidance?
I don't know. This kind of announcement is arbitrary in nature. I recall someone somewhere ever 'back testing' to see how substantial the increases were after such announcements but results inconclusive. I sure hope it is 139% but taking Phillip securities' forecast as guidance, maybe we can expect full year net profit of rmb 344m?
I realised it is not difficult to check back so I did. Sunsine last positive profit alert was for 1Q15, which registered net profit growth of 108%. The increases were even more spectacular for those alerts issued in 2014, which were all close to 200% and even surpassed 200% on an occasion. Given the low base in 2013, perhaps the last alert is the better gauge and I think we should see net profit of at least rmb 300m for FY17.