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Curiousparty

You must be a wise man when you advised us not to take things at face value:

“yes, I have read all these "public lines" many times. But we have to read "behind the lines" and how does this tie in with other info.”

“Things are not always as simple as it seems .”

“If investing is as simple as reading financial statements and annual report , many people would have been millionaires by now . It is the action and the perception of management actions and the intent of their actions that we have to decipher together with the financial figures we see.”

 

I am surprised that you were so trusting and believe how cheap pollution control can become. Are these not salesman talks?

If pollution control can be cheap, why are we paying so much for waste water treatment in our PUB bills? Why is the world so filthy?

Not sure if u have mixed up "water bills" with "electricity bills".

The WBF and SAF (i.e. charges for treatment of used water or sewerage) have remained constant since year 2000. In other words, the real price of water (including sewerage services) have been coming down over the years.

It is the electricity tariffs that have gone up a lot since year 2000. But in recent quarters, with the emergence of the LNG market, there is sign that the electricity tariff has moderated as well.

In addition, I did not say "how cheap pollution control can become". Rather I said "how fast the overall cost will come down really depends on the degree of energy recovery. Once the tech is widely adopted, this would probably change the dynamic of the chemical industries around the world."

it is not salesman talk. Pls go and subscribe to GWI and have a good read. tks.

(19-08-2014, 05:16 PM)Young Investor Wrote: [ -> ]Curiousparty

You must be a wise man when you advised us not to take things at face value:

“yes, I have read all these "public lines" many times. But we have to read "behind the lines" and how does this tie in with other info.”

“Things are not always as simple as it seems .”

“If investing is as simple as reading financial statements and annual report , many people would have been millionaires by now . It is the action and the perception of management actions and the intent of their actions that we have to decipher together with the financial figures we see.”

 

I am surprised that you were so trusting and believe how cheap pollution control can become. Are these not salesman talks?

If pollution control can be cheap, why are we paying so much for waste water treatment in our PUB bills? Why is the world so filthy?

Curiosparty

There may be reasons for government not to raise the fees.

In your own words, “we have to read "behind the lines" and how does this tie in with other info” and “things are not always as simple as it seems”.

Anyway, you came up with novel points regularly, but when asked for the basis, you either stay silent or switch topics.

I am reminded of your claim of the wonders of Monte Carlo method, but when the obvious flaws were pointed out, you avoided discussion on them.

I am most willing to share more on monte carlo simulation

Can the moderator create a separate thread for it pls?
I can provide a few examples to illustrate.

The key thing I want to say is the method of Monte Carlo is fine per se. It is the assumptions that go into the financial model that matter most.
(I asked value buddies to provide me with the required assumptions but no one came forward and so I took the liberty to assume myself.)

Monte Carlo is purely a scientific method to illuminate the "flaw of averages".

(20-08-2014, 09:09 AM)simpleman Wrote: [ -> ]Curiosparty

There may be reasons for government not to raise the fees.

In your own words, “we have to read "behind the lines" and how does this tie in with other info” and “things are not always as simple as it seems”.

Anyway, you came up with novel points regularly, but when asked for the basis, you either stay silent or switch topics.

I am reminded of your claim of the wonders of Monte Carlo method, but when the obvious flaws were pointed out, you avoided discussion on them.

(20-08-2014, 09:26 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]I am most willing to share more on monte carlo simulation

Can the moderator create a separate thread for it pls?
I can provide a few examples to illustrate.

The key thing I want to say is the method of Monte Carlo is fine per se. It is the assumptions that go into the financial model that matter most.
(I asked value buddies to provide me with the required assumptions but no one came forward and so I took the liberty to assume myself.)

Monte Carlo is purely a scientific method to illuminate the "flaw of averages".

Buddies are able to create new thread without moderator help.

Regards
Moderator

Curiosparty

You yourself can start a thread on Monte Carlo.

Will you in the new thread answer why you made separate assumptions on selling price and gross profit margin, when profit margin is dependent on selling price?

Thank you.

Answered ur query on New thread. tks.

(20-08-2014, 12:07 PM)simpleman Wrote: [ -> ]Curiosparty

You yourself can start a thread on Monte Carlo.

Will you in the new thread answer why you made separate assumptions on selling price and gross profit margin, when profit margin is dependent on selling price?

Thank you.

Puntersgallery has the following 4 recent posts by Curiousparty saying how good China Sunsine is.

In the last post on 3 Aug, Curiousparty said those who did not listen to him to buy Sunsine have to regret……

 

http://www.puntersgallery.com/archive/in...t-201.html

 

curiousparty

29-May-2014, 02:43 PM

This is really one of the few best S-chips we have seen so far.

No rights issues, dividend every year since day 1, share buy back, etc.

Given their foresight of advanced investment in green and environmentally friendly pollution control technologies, they are now going to reap the handsome rewards.

Based on the 1Q2014 announcement by Sunsine, many of its competitors had already suspended their operations due to Government action on environmental protection, resulting in a decrease in supply of rubber accelerators. Sunsine will then switch back to increase the price of their products.

Although very capital intensive, sunsine is helped by having a much greater EOS (economy of scale) compared to the other much smaller players. Hence, sunsine has a much lower cost structure and it can afford to play down the prices for the last few years to drive out and suffocate its competitors.

It is a virtuous cost cycle for sunsine. As more companies die out, EOS will get higher and cost structure (per unit volume) will be further lowered.

If everything pans out, sunsine share price should hit a new high over the next few quarters (probably in the region of 35 to 40 cents).


http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/sto...na-sunsine

http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/com...ly-efforts

curiousparty

29-May-2014, 07:31 PM

I feel that it is at the cusp of the next big movement up.

Next quarterly results will be crucial

Need to be patient

 

curiousparty

04-Jun-2014, 01:56 PM

Now is a good time to accumulate more when everyone is fearful!

"As the China government is placing more emphasis on environmental protection, some medium- and small-sized players in the rubber chemicals industry were forced to suspend their production. Further, due to the China government’s comprehensive measures on environmental protection, a few large-sized players also suspended their production.

"As such, the supply of accelerators in the market is decreasing. In order to maintain their productions to meet higher demand of tires, the tire makers placed more orders to purchase accelerators. The Group anticipates that the sales volume of accelerator products will continue to increase.


"However, as Insoluble Sulphur and Anti-oxidant products cause less harmful environmental effects, and the Chinese government has not introduced environmental controls on such products, some players have switched into these business segments. As such, the Group anticipates the competition in these business segments to be more intense."

curiousparty

03-Aug-2014, 09:05 AM

I have earlier told you all that China Sunsine will shoot up but no one cared I have taken profit on this counter. I bought at low 20 cents.

S-chips (bought and dumped)

The next counter to shoot to the moon is Chip Eng Seng.

Its full year EPS for 2014 is likely to hit more than 30 cents, or 200% gain over 2013 full year EPS.

Think it is going to take the entire Market by Storm!!!

:1244::1244::1244:

 

 

Think Curious Party made a gamble on it and hoped others get on the boat too. Now it is time to get off.Period.

(20-08-2014, 08:40 PM)Young Investor Wrote: [ -> ]Puntersgallery has the following 4 recent posts by Curiousparty saying how good China Sunsine is.

In the last post on 3 Aug, Curiousparty said those who did not listen to him to buy Sunsine have to regret……

 

http://www.puntersgallery.com/archive/in...t-201.html

 

curiousparty

29-May-2014, 02:43 PM

This is really one of the few best S-chips we have seen so far.

No rights issues, dividend every year since day 1, share buy back, etc.

Given their foresight of advanced investment in green and environmentally friendly pollution control technologies, they are now going to reap the handsome rewards.

Based on the 1Q2014 announcement by Sunsine, many of its competitors had already suspended their operations due to Government action on environmental protection, resulting in a decrease in supply of rubber accelerators. Sunsine will then switch back to increase the price of their products.

Although very capital intensive, sunsine is helped by having a much greater EOS (economy of scale) compared to the other much smaller players. Hence, sunsine has a much lower cost structure and it can afford to play down the prices for the last few years to drive out and suffocate its competitors.

It is a virtuous cost cycle for sunsine. As more companies die out, EOS will get higher and cost structure (per unit volume) will be further lowered.

If everything pans out, sunsine share price should hit a new high over the next few quarters (probably in the region of 35 to 40 cents).


http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/sto...na-sunsine

http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/com...ly-efforts

curiousparty

29-May-2014, 07:31 PM

I feel that it is at the cusp of the next big movement up.

Next quarterly results will be crucial

Need to be patient

 

curiousparty

04-Jun-2014, 01:56 PM

Now is a good time to accumulate more when everyone is fearful!

"As the China government is placing more emphasis on environmental protection, some medium- and small-sized players in the rubber chemicals industry were forced to suspend their production. Further, due to the China government’s comprehensive measures on environmental protection, a few large-sized players also suspended their production.

"As such, the supply of accelerators in the market is decreasing. In order to maintain their productions to meet higher demand of tires, the tire makers placed more orders to purchase accelerators. The Group anticipates that the sales volume of accelerator products will continue to increase.


"However, as Insoluble Sulphur and Anti-oxidant products cause less harmful environmental effects, and the Chinese government has not introduced environmental controls on such products, some players have switched into these business segments. As such, the Group anticipates the competition in these business segments to be more intense."

curiousparty

03-Aug-2014, 09:05 AM

I have earlier told you all that China Sunsine will shoot up but no one cared I have taken profit on this counter. I bought at low 20 cents.

S-chips (bought and dumped)

The next counter to shoot to the moon is Chip Eng Seng.

Its full year EPS for 2014 is likely to hit more than 30 cents, or 200% gain over 2013 full year EPS.

Think it is going to take the entire Market by Storm!!!

:1244::1244::1244:

 

 

I saw his postings at puntersgallery too. I was waiting for CP to post more stuff here to have a better assessment, as I have become a curious party too to know what CP is up too. Now that you have directed us to his posts at puntersgallery, my view is that it is clear CP had benefited from the rise of sunsine and not surprisingly, he talked good about it while in long position. After benefited from the rise of sunsine, he could have opened a short position now and again, not surprisingly, cannot stop talking down sunsine and hoping to cash in again.