(24-04-2019, 08:11 PM)Squirrel Wrote: [ -> ]Hey there dreamybear. Just want to make sure you actually went into the report itself to take a look and didn’t just read the summary. The pdf report requires you to provide an email before letting you have a look at it. There are quite interesting information inside that you should take into account.
Just Some other observations
Bloomberg article says (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloombe...hares-drop)
1) Best World has the highest short interest over free float in SGX
2) Short Interest doubles over the month
3) Bonitas initiates a short and these companies benefits from short selling stocks
4) Bonitas mentioned the hope that regulators pick up on the irregularities of conduct following crackdown on Quan Jian etc
Would it be too far to imagine Bonitas reporting to authorities MOFCOM about their discoveries? It does seem like they have teams on the ground. Would that mean that there is a very real possibility of BWL’s business in China evaporating overnight? How much business would there be left in Taiwan and the others category to support current market valuation?
Hi Squirrel,
Yes, I am aware of the pdf. Thanks for your concern - it is much appreciated.
This is a good forum - forumers share their knowledge/concern abt possible pitfalls on investing.
Although I cannot read people like WB, based on my experience in BW AGMs, I cannot imagine the founders are the type of people who will engage in fraud(it's just my personal opinion - do note I am a nobody). Both Doreen and Dora hv also appointed their children as alternate directors on 16 Jan 2019, perhaps signifying handing the Co over to them in the forseeable future.
Having said this, I believe the China growth story will never be smooth, and that doing business in China is super complex(like many countries within a country), and we cannot approach 2nd/3rd/4th tier cities based on our Singapore way - everything done procedure by procedure or every email/decision/minutes of mtg covered/documented, etc. The behaviour/culture of the people will not be like our typical SG MNC / civil service / office workers.
But I think if Nuskin can be very successful in China(despite also facing hiccups along the way and still increasing its China revenue), it means it is feasible. In fact, Ping An ZQ Capital and ZQ Capital invested in Nuskin in 2016(worth mentioning here tt CIC also invested in Noble but ...). The key risk, IMO, is whether the China franchises behave as they shd.
IMO : Given its present situation, for unvested investors, it might be better to stay away till the coming AGM where hopefully things are clearer. BW is currently abt 12x PE & 4-5% dividend yield(inclusive of special div), with China forming 54% of revenue in 2018.
Also, 财经郎眼 has an episode on 15/04/2019 mentioning Medical Pdts/Quanjian/MLM :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSWJfxWcsVI
On Bonitas, I wld think they engaged local Chinese ad hoc to investigate(rather than having a perm China office), coz I remember watching a documentary whereby another short seller did the same thing to successfully uncover fraud in China.
Yes, thanks for all buddies for their views/contributions indeed !