(28-05-2016, 02:01 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ] (21-05-2016, 06:31 PM)Jamesbond008 Wrote: [ -> ] (19-05-2016, 08:00 AM)namralk Wrote: [ -> ]Some updates on Taiwan sales. For Apr & May (ytd) sales is approaching TWD600m (estimate SGD24M). Q2 16 looks sets to beat Q4 15 Taiwan revenue of SGD27.6m.
I believe it is safe to assume that FY2016 NPAT should exceed S$20 million. If that is the case, we are talking about 10x FY2016, for a Company growing 100% for 2 consecutive years. PEG is 0.1
Many funds under-owned this stock. As more and more analysts start to cover this stock, the instit funds will be compelled to load up on this stock.
The S$1.00 is just tip of the iceberg. I believe more investors will start to load up on this stock.
Major Shareholders/Insiders
D2 Investment = 77,115,000 (35.02%)
Dora Hoan = 12,352,000 ( 5.61%)
Doreen Tan = 12,352,000 ( 5.61%)
Huang Ban Chin (COO) = 9,200,000 ( 4.18%)
D2 Siblings = 200,000 ( 0.09%)
Sub-total = 111,219,000 ( 50.51%)
Free float = 108,964,864 ( 49.49%)
Total No: of issued shares = 220,183,864 (100.00%)
Market Cap = SGD 242 m @ 1.10 per share
5% = 0.05 x 242 m = SGD 12.1 m (11 m shares)
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With its relatively small market cap and small “free-float”, it could not possibly support even one investment from big institution fund that could invest in hundreds of millions.
At most, it could possibly support only a handful of smaller funds/investors that could invest up to 10 m each.
Or about 100 funds/investors that could invest up to 1 m each.
Or about 1,000 retail investors that could invest up to 100,000 each.
Look at the shareholding statistics in AR2015, 78% of the shares were in the hands of top 22 shareholders…………..
Most funds would not invest if they could not get a sizeable bite
So far, no new SSH has emerged…………………that possibly explains.......................
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NPAT (SGD, million)
FY2013 = 1.429
FY2014 = 4.054 (Up 183%)
FY2015 = 10.104 (Up 149%)
FY2016 = 20.208 (Up 100%) = Projection of 100% earning growth is highly likely to be achieved.
FY2017 = 40.416 (Up 100%) = Projection of 100% earning growth is harder to achieve but not impossible
Y-o-Y NPAT growth over the past two years (FY2014 & FY2015) had been more than 100%.
For FY2016, based on current sales momentum, it seems highly likely that NPAT growth would exceed 100% as well.
A one-year projection is much easier to predict than say a 5-year projection.
It is of anybody’s guess as to whether it is going to be low growth, moderate growth, high growth or super-growth or even no growth, over the next 5 years.
Beyond FY2016, earning growth of 100% p.a. would be harder to achieve simply because of the fact that the base is getting bigger…………..
But as long as earning growth of at least 20% p.a. could be maintained over the next five years, valuation based on a PEG ratio of 0.6 (and below) still looks undemanding, IMO.
Of course, the downside risks are “negative growth”.
But what are the probabilities of these downside risks materialised over the next 5 years, given that:
1)
The growth story for China has just begun (even without a DS license being granted) – exports to China are growing and the PBT margin is good.
2)
The growth momentum in Taiwan is getting stronger
3)
The Indonesia market is bouncing back
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PE Ratio:
FY2016 NPAT (projected) = 20 m
FY2016 EPS (projected) = 9 cents per share
Current share price = 1.085
=> Forward PE = 1.085 / 0.09 = 12 (less than peer PE of 17)
PEG Ratio (Based on expected future earning growth of 20% over the next 5-year)
ðForward PEG = 12/20 = 0.6
PEG Ratio (Based on expected future earning growth of 25% over the next 5-year)
ðForward PEG = 12/25 = 0.5
PEG Ratio (Based on expected future earning growth of 50% over the next 5-year)
ðForward PEG = 12/50 = 0.24
PEG Ratio (Based on expected future earning growth of 100% over the next 5-year)
ðForward PEG = 12/100 = 0.12
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