(11-05-2016, 11:25 PM)Retired@52 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-05-2016, 10:44 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ]1Q2016 results (Released on 11 May 2016)
Revenue (SGD Million)
1Q2014 = 12.802 (= 17% of FY2014 Revenue)
2Q2014 = 18.278 (= 24% of FY2014 Revenue)
3Q2014 = 19.229 (= 26% of FY2014 Revenue)
4Q2014 = 24.957 (= 33% of FY2014 Revenue)
1Q2015 = 13.507 (= 13% of FY2015 Revenue)
2Q2015 = 21.029 (= 21% of FY2015 Revenue)
3Q2015 = 26.191 (= 26% of FY2015 Revenue)
4Q2015 = 40.945 (= 40% of FY2015 Revenue)
1Q2016 = 35.226 (= X % of FY2016 Revenue)
1Q2016 revenue of 35.226 is the highest 1Q revenue and second highest quarterly revenue ever achieved. It was 14% lower than 4Q2015, the highest quarterly revenue ever achieved.
1Q has normally been the weakest quarter for the Group’s core business of Direct Selling due to its seasonal nature and the long Chinese New Year holidays.
If X = 25% => annualized FY2016 = 140.904 m which will be a new group revenue record (vs FY2015 revenue of 101.672m and record revenue of 102.180 m achieved in 2007)
If X < 25%, FY2016 revenue would be even higher……….
1Q Revenue (SGD million):
1Q2007 = 19.267
1Q2008 = 25.495
1Q2009 = 18.976
1Q2010 = 11.526
1Q2011 = 9.308
1Q2012 = 9.326
1Q2013 = 9.022
1Q2014 = 12.802
1Q2015 = 13.507
1Q2016 = 35.226
(Highest 1Q revenue of all time)
NPAT / EPS
1Q2014 = 0.121 m / 0.06 cent
2Q2014 = 0.758 m / 0.34 cent
3Q2014 = 1.123 m / 0.51 cent
4Q2014 = 2.052 m / 0.93 cent
1Q2015 = 0.249 m / 0.11 cent
2Q2015 = 2.106 m / 0.96 cent
3Q2015 = 4.035 m / 1.83 cent
4Q2015 = 3.714 m / 1.69 cent
1Q2016 = 5.963 m / 2.71 cent
(1Q2016 NPAT/EPS of 5.963 m/2.71 cent = 59% of FY2015 NPAT/EPS of 10.104m / 4.59 cent)
Impressive !
GPM / NPM
1Q2014 = 74.0% / 0.9%
2Q2014 = 69.8% / 4.1%
3Q2014 = 75.5% / 5.8%
4Q2014 = 77.1% / 8.2%
1Q2015 = 74.9% / 1.8%
2Q2015 = 75.8% /10.0%
3Q2015 = 77.1% /15.4%
4Q2015 = 74.8% / 9.1%
1Q2016 = 75.5% /16.9%
Huge improvement in NPM to 16.9% - impressive !
Taiwan Revenue (SGD million)
1Q2014 = 2.418 (= 11% of FY2014 Revenue)
2Q2014 = 4.157 (= 18% of FY2014 Revenue)
3Q2014 = 4.940 (= 22% of FY2014 Revenue)
4Q2014 = 11.196 (= 49% of FY2014 Revenue)
1Q2015 = 4.465 (= 8% of FY2015 Revenue)
2Q2015 = 10.244 (= 18% of FY2015 Revenue)
3Q2015 = 14.125 (= 25% of FY2015 Revenue)
4Q2015 = 27.559 (= 49% of FY2015 Revenue)
1Q2016 = 20.221 (= Y % of FY2016 Revenue)
Highest ever 1Q revenue and second highest ever quarterly revenue for Taiwan.
If Y = 25% => annualized FY 2016 Taiwan revenue = SGD 80.884 which is more than SGD 75 m (TWD1,800 m), BWL Taiwan’s FY2016 revenue target.
If Y < 25%, FY2016 revenue would be even higher………
China Revenue (SGD million)
1Q2014 = 2.195
2Q2014 = 3.296
3Q2014 = 3.117
4Q2014 = 4.372
1Q2015 = 3.088
2Q2015 = 5.366
3Q2015 = 4.805
4Q2015 = 6.512
1Q2016 =10.566
1Q2016 China revenue is 242.2% higher than 1Q2015 and 62.3% higher than 4Q2015
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An excellent set of 1Q2016 results – better than my expectation.
FY2016 looks on course to be a record-breaking year in many aspects, I reckon.
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The 1st Quarter result: $5M+ for a quarter! No Bad!
In year 2006 & 2007 the Whole Year Net Profit were between $12M to $13M and the share prices were traded around $1.10 per share.
Now with the expectation of getting the Direct Selling License from China, we can expect a lot more excitement.
Hi Retired@52,
I think the conditions back then were different.
In 2006/2007, BWI was just exploring at how to enter the China market.
Now it has two foots set in China via the wholesale/manufacturing mode and the export mode.
In addition, the DS license application has reached its final stage of the application process, now awaiting for approval from the Chinese central government.
Also, as you have try to emphasize earlier, a point which I believe many still don’t fully appreciate is the “export mode” could immediately be converted into “DS mode “, upon granting of a DS license, by converting all importing agents and its network of beauty salon owners into DS network distributors.
1Q2016 China revenue was SGD 10.556 m of which SGD 0.957m was under wholesale/manufacturing mode, meaning sales under export mode was SGD 9.6 m.
Annualized FY2016 China export sale = 4 x 9.6 m = SGD 38.4 m
i.e. revenue booked by BWI would be SGD 38.4 m (under export mode)
DS price roughly equals 2 to 3 times export price. Lets assume 2.5 times.
If the above SGD 38.4 m export sale were to be operated under DS mode:
i.e. revenue booked by BWI would be SGD 96 m ( = 38.4 x 2.5 ).
SGD 40 m (export sales) => SGD 100m (sales under DS mode)
SGD 80 m (export sales) => SGD 200 m (sales under DS mode)
Very significant impact it would have, once the DS license is being granted.
The good news is the export sales to China is growing fast:
"In 1Q2016, the Group recorded a 242.2% increase in its revenue from China, primarily due to higher export orders from our China agent. In line with Management’s expectation, there is an increase demand for our skin care line of products in China. Management remains cautiously optimistic about the growing demands for the Group’s brands by Chinese consumers for the next few quarters."
A growing export sales to China is excellent
A growing export sales, with a 2 to 3 times multiplier to it would be a very significant game changer event...........................
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Without a DS being granted in FY2016,
For FY2016:
Assume X = 25%
Annualized FY2016 revenue = SGD 140.904
Assuming NPM of 15%
ðNPAT = SGD 21.1 m
ðEPS = SGD 9.6 cents
Using share price of 90 cents, => PE = 9.4 ( vs average peer PE of 17.1)
Over-valued, under-valued, or fair-valued?
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