Hi bear, first thing first, I benefited a lot from your kind sharing and I'm very grateful all these while.
I'm not a analyst - finacial, investment or anything.
I can only share my thought process and if there are other valuebuddies wanted to share your view, please do.
Some background first:
1. bwl had been and I believed still is a good company.
2. bwl results after they cracked the Taiwan and then China market is fantastic... both top and bottomline.
3. bwl in general does not have any trouble, the only reason why I sold out all my bwl (at least 30% weightage when I sold), yes, I sold 100% of my bwl in one transaction - market order sell within few seconds - is because of a few suicide cases in China (uni students) on MLM (take note, might or might not related to bwl). I sold because I read a few Chinese Blogs and I think the hint/link to bwl is there and the high weightage of bwl in my overall invested portfolio prompted me to do something. I attempted to queue at a price but no hit after 1 hour. When I checked again, I decided to sell at market order and everything out in few seconds. That was the circumstances that I sold bwl. It's more than a 10 baggers for me. My vested cost was below 20 cents.
Why I wanted to buyback:
a. at $1.36, I think there is a lot of upside. how much I don't know.
b. before the petitions came, things would remain unchange for a long time. Things I'm mean the stock/share suspension.
c. with valuebuddies (vested as well as those not vested) petitioning for bwl to be un-suspended or de-list, there is a high chance that things will move forward faster (comparing to b.)
d. I don't have any insider or special information, my hunch is with more and more valuebuddies pushing for un-suspension or de-list, this will allow SGX to adjust the condition for the suspension. If SGX do not adjust, then these increasing voices on petition will gives bwl management a justification for de-list or off-the-market purchases (which is mooting now).
e. Of course, when un-suspension come, some weak hand will sell. how much I don't know but I will definitely pick up some.
My instinct tells me that there will be more petitions and high chance that SGX will change the condition because bwl already explained that it's not they don't want to apply for the DS license but China government had paused the application of DS license. Then, how can SGX suspend bwl because of China government inaction?
Previously, it was very clear to me that bwl had avoided applying for the DS license and instead choose to jump onto the easier Franchise license. To me, this is because DS is difficult to get approval as it contains many gates/conditions. So, I thought it's a short cut out for bwl management. But, after bwl explain repeatedly to everyone, it's the China government that stopped processing DS application. That's a totally different story, right?
I belief when the condition for suspension was imposed by SGX, they had the same assumption as me aka bwl is going for a easier route and deviated from doing the right things aka DS license plan. Hence, to mitigate the risk of bwl hang-ki-peng-ki, SGX just impose the DS license as a condition. But, now, facts had change, so why SGX still imposing the same condition? Your guess is as good as mine.
The only problem (not for me but for existing shareholders), is bwl de-listed before SGX taking action to change/modified the DS license condition.
I might be wrong, let's wait for the trading to resume and buy some, hopefully soon.
<ex-bwl shareholder>
Gratitude.