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The last question states that most of its biz is on a contract basic. With rates being revised much higher than last year, it is very likely that Samudera's earnings will be higher than last year UNLESS volume drops drastically


(20-04-2022, 07:47 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]Response to shareholders questions

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...56a9a4dc44
Response to question 3:
"The long-term time charters range from seven to nine years. The relatively longer charter periods has the objective of minimising service disruptions in view of the limited vessel supply in the market".
Some rates are fixed while some adjustable depending on future conditions. I can only assume 50/50.

Ship owners have been calling the shots over the carriers. We have been reading over the past year of ship owners renewing (tying down) long term time charter at elevated rates. 


Response to question 4:
"Most of the Group’s container capacity is utilised on contract basis, with only a very small proportion utilised on spot basis. This arrangement has been in place for many years now. The duration of a typical customer contract ranges from 6 to 12 months and is subject to renewal upon expiry".

And, previously shared by Yoyo who queried Samudera:
"The bulk of Samudera's container slots are contracted to the main line operators (ie, the bigger shipping lines that ply Asia - US/Europe) and these contribute approximately 70-80% of the Company's revenue".


I see quite a significant portion of their capacity is tied to high charter rates for long time while subject to only short term contract.
Is container shipping freight rates cyclical?

When i first started buying SSL shares last year (thanks to Squirrel whose contributions first triggered me), it was always about short term and not long term cos of the nature of this business. From the start of 2021, I was confident there was ample time to harvest some before things start turning. The global container ship fleet growth chart occupies my computer desktop as a constant reminder. The surprise huge dividend declared in Feb was the positive trigger that creates a favourable wave for all SSL shareholders.

Looking at the list of top 20 shareholders over the most recent few years to just before pandemic, I see some have been buying (one particular, big). Some sold (too) early. Some long suffering shareholders who are now finally getting just rewards. These folks are part of the ~34% public. My personal opinion, if in the scenario just some of them rush for the exit, things can get ugly.

SSL will no doubt make alot of money again in 2022 like evey other carrier. Maybe even 2023. They can give 15 cents dividends again, and then again. It will have to end somewhere. I can not take everything and I am no longer confident like I was in 2021. Hence I am ending my current relationship with SSL, quoting Squirrel "to leave some on the table".
(20-04-2022, 10:19 PM)Mushy Wrote: [ -> ]Response to question 3:
"The long-term time charters range from seven to nine years. The relatively longer charter periods has the objective of minimising service disruptions in view of the limited vessel supply in the market".
Some rates are fixed while some adjustable depending on future conditions. I can only assume 50/50.

Ship owners have been calling the shots over the carriers. We have been reading over the past year of ship owners renewing (tying down) long term time charter at elevated rates. 


Response to question 4:
"Most of the Group’s container capacity is utilised on contract basis, with only a very small proportion utilised on spot basis. This arrangement has been in place for many years now. The duration of a typical customer contract ranges from 6 to 12 months and is subject to renewal upon expiry".

And, previously shared by Yoyo who queried Samudera:
"The bulk of Samudera's container slots are contracted to the main line operators (ie, the bigger shipping lines that ply Asia - US/Europe) and these contribute approximately 70-80% of the Company's revenue".


I see quite a significant portion of their capacity is tied to high charter rates for long time while subject to only short term contract.
Is container shipping freight rates cyclical?

When i first started buying SSL shares last year (thanks to Squirrel whose contributions first triggered me), it was always about short term and not long term cos of the nature of this business. From the start of 2021, I was confident there was ample time to harvest some before things start turning. The global container ship fleet growth chart occupies my computer desktop as a constant reminder. The surprise huge dividend declared in Feb was the positive trigger that creates a favourable wave for all SSL shareholders.

Looking at the list of top 20 shareholders over the most recent few years to just before pandemic, I see some have been buying (one particular, big). Some sold (too) early. Some long suffering shareholders who are now finally getting just rewards. These folks are part of the ~34% public. My personal opinion, if in the scenario just some of them rush for the exit, things can get ugly.

SSL will no doubt make alot of money again in 2022 like evey other carrier. Maybe even 2023. They can give 15 cents dividends again, and then again. It will have to end somewhere. I can not take everything and I am no longer confident like I was in 2021. Hence I am ending my current relationship with SSL, quoting Squirrel "to leave some on the table".

Hi Mushy, this is our second investment together since YHI! Glad both turned out alright. I guess many forummers would probably think I left too much on the table now. Darn.
Hi Squirrel, I no longer owns any SSL shares as of now as I no longer see a sufficient runway.

Just want to add some more personal observations. Most of the container shipping indexes like drewry and shanghai that are public are base on spot rates. Falling spot rates have been well publicised since a few months ago, and measured by the weekly indexes. The major carriers (top 10) had been renewing their contracts on multi-years base on the recent highs so they would have locked down thier profits for the next few years. Small feeders like SSL seem to be mainly on shorter 6-12 mths contract to the top10, as they had revealed.
So I see the current container shipping upcycle as a food chain. From the top: ship owners->major carriers->feeder carriers->shippers. The feeders wil normalise before the major carriers. So far I have not seen any boss from the carriers say there will be a new norm. So its a case of making hay while the sun shines, and the sun may shine for quite a while more.
(25-04-2022, 02:53 PM)Mushy Wrote: [ -> ]Hi Squirrel, I no longer owns any SSL shares as of now as I no longer see a sufficient runway.

Just want to add some more personal observations. Most of the container shipping indexes like drewry and shanghai that are public are base on spot rates. Falling spot rates have been well publicised since a few months ago, and measured by the weekly indexes. The major carriers (top 10) had been renewing their contracts on multi-years base on the recent highs so they would have locked down thier profits for the next few years. Small feeders like SSL seem to be mainly on shorter 6-12 mths contract to the top10, as they had revealed.
So I see the current container shipping upcycle as a food chain. From the top: ship owners->major carriers->feeder carriers->shippers. The feeders wil normalise before the major carriers. So far I have not seen any boss from the carriers say there will be a new norm. So its a case of making hay while the sun shines, and the sun may shine for quite a while more.

Yeah, saw that you were out. Happy that it worked out. On to the next adventure.
Collapsing freight demand is spotted by Bank of America.  Shippers’ outlook on rates, capacity and inventory levels are matching attitudes not seen since May and June 2020, when pandemic lockdowns sent freight volumes into a historic decline.
Reference:
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/bank-o...ght-demand
@weii: The "freight demand" refers to truckers in the USA. How is it related to Samudera?
USA is the largest consumer market in the world.  Low demand for trucks in USA implies lower consumption in the USA. This will in turn imply less containers containing consumer goods need to be shipped to USA. This will affect shipping rates that service USA. When that part of shipping rates soften, more supply of shipping vessels will be available for South East Asia market and that will possibly mean lower shipping rates in this region as well.
Samudera Shipping's parent company Samudera Indonesia result is out.....

1q earnings of US$58.4m Vs US$13.28m a year ago
Looking at Samudera Indonesia result, my estimate of Samudera Shipping earning is US86m for 1q or 16 cents per share or 22 Singapore cents ( using 1usd to 1.37 sing).... Last year the company earns 32 cents but now 1st q ....22 cents....

I cannot believe also.....will double check and double check again
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