ValueBuddies.com : Value Investing Forum - Singapore, Hong Kong, U.S.

Full Version: Samudera Shipping
You're currently viewing a stripped down version of our content. View the full version with proper formatting.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Port of Singapore regains momentum despite disruptions caused by Covid-19 pandemic
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/s...y-covid-19

“Container throughput has since grown by 4.6 per cent from January to May 2021 compared with the same period in 2020, and 3.9 per cent compared with the same period in 2019, prior to the pandemic, he said.”

Samudera’s operations is based on providing services from Singapore as a shipping hub. With higher container throughput and even higher freight rates, I am looking forward to the upcoming 1H 2021 results announcement.
The composite index increased 15.9% or $1,104 this week, and also, remains 332% higher than a year ago.

https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-ad...-by-drewry

Just take a look at the increase in rates from Mar onwards. 2Q results is shaping up to be a phenomenal quarter surpassing the first.

With Christmas stocking and the Delta Variant, would that squeeze the rates further north?
[Image: WCI-Chart_2021-06-24.svg]

Showing the chart here for reference
Samudera@42
Disposal of Sinar Bima
https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Disposal%...eID=673781

[Image: uc?id=1DUu-_eJs9EpW3zyLkcs8-1HfTANP4DtJ]

Stay home and stay safe, everyone.
Heart
(06-05-2021, 10:38 PM)Squirrel Wrote: [ -> ]Trying to get a glimpse into how Samudera shipping is doing in Q1 2021 with the persistently high container shipping rates! Definitely a cash cow under the current environment, bolstering its' next possible move in share buybacks, special dividends and building up its dry bulk and tanker businesses.

More details in https://www.thesquirrelsdrey.com/post/sa...021-update

As the 1H 2021 results will be released soon, I have re-read your posting. Interesting perspective to gauge the result of a subsidiary from the group level via Non Controlling Interests.  Unlike the previous read, this time I noted a discrepancy in the interpretation of NCI movement.

Would like to highlight - net profit (not gross profit) under the Note 23 movement of Samudera Indonesia
NCI in net assets of consolidated subsidiary, Samudera Shipping ie SSL, has increased to USD 73.3m from USD 65.7m (an increase of USD 7.6m) over 1Q 2021.  Since the NCI of SSL is 34.86%, the net profit of SSL (regrossed to 100%) is USD 21.8m for the first 3 months.
PS:  The movement in NCI of Note 23 may be seem as residual profit (net of all expenses including tax and dividend payment) that flow to the net assets in the balance sheet.

As such, assuming everythings constant, will be looking at FY net profit of USD 87.2m representing EPS of USD 16.2 cents.  On hindsight, we know that there is a small increase in freight volume and a not modest increase in container freight rate.  Thus it is not unreasonable to expect better results than above for the Full Year.

If the SSL 1H 2021 EPS is anything less than USD 8.1 cents, it will be disappointing to me.

Big thanks to you, Squirrel for your sharing.

Vested recently.  
PS: wonder why SSL did not issue a positive profit guidance.
My apology. My above posting on deduced net profit is flawed as I am not able to reconcile the NCI at balance sheet date of Samudera Shipping in Samudera Indonesia with that of Samudera Shipping net assets. Gave out after several attempts, not sure what drives the variance, am restricted by limited knowledge over group accounting.

Again sorry for any confusion caused.
Your estimation of us$21m should be close to the exact amount. In the net asset segment of non controlling interest, it shows a list of companies that it has non controlling interest. Notice there are little changes to the net assets by the other companies. Right below, you get to see the profit attributable to the non controlling interest which is us$7.5m which the bulk should be attributable to samudera (notice little changes in net assets by the other non controlling interest).

Years of consolidation by the shipping companies has now resulted in 3 major shipping alliances controlling 80-85% of the market. In other words, it is now more OPEC+ than OPEC+. The earnings now are elevated and still continue to be elevated due to congestion and other factors. But I doubt you get to see low freight rates like in the past with such a stranglehold on the market by the 3 alliances.
(26-07-2021, 09:58 PM)Yoyo Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-05-2021, 10:38 PM)Squirrel Wrote: [ -> ]Trying to get a glimpse into how Samudera shipping is doing in Q1 2021 with the persistently high container shipping rates! Definitely a cash cow under the current environment, bolstering its' next possible move in share buybacks, special dividends and building up its dry bulk and tanker businesses.

More details in https://www.thesquirrelsdrey.com/post/sa...021-update

As the 1H 2021 results will be released soon, I have re-read your posting. Interesting perspective to gauge the result of a subsidiary from the group level via Non Controlling Interests.  Unlike the previous read, this time I noted a discrepancy in the interpretation of NCI movement.

Would like to highlight - net profit (not gross profit) under the Note 23 movement of Samudera Indonesia
NCI in net assets of consolidated subsidiary, Samudera Shipping ie SSL, has increased to USD 73.3m from USD 65.7m (an increase of USD 7.6m) over 1Q 2021.  Since the NCI of SSL is 34.86%, the net profit of SSL (regrossed to 100%) is USD 21.8m for the first 3 months.
PS:  The movement in NCI of Note 23 may be seem as residual profit (net of all expenses including tax and dividend payment) that flow to the net assets in the balance sheet.

As such, assuming everythings constant, will be looking at FY net profit of USD 87.2m representing EPS of USD 16.2 cents.  On hindsight, we know that there is a small increase in freight volume and a not modest increase in container freight rate.  Thus it is not unreasonable to expect better results than above for the Full Year.

If the SSL 1H 2021 EPS is anything less than USD 8.1 cents, it will be disappointing to me.

Big thanks to you, Squirrel for your sharing.

Vested recently.  
PS: wonder why SSL did not issue a positive profit guidance.

Hi Yoyo, I suggest that you can go through the post again and follow the steps done in getting to net profit estimates of US$17.4m for Q1. I believe you did not take into account expenses and might have overestimated it.

https://www.thesquirrelsdrey.com/post/sa...021-update
And Samudera Shipping has announced its results for 1H 2021! The results seem to show that the exercise of looking through the parent company financials and deriving SSL's 1Q results was not in vain.

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Samudera%...eID=676252

- Total profits attributable to owners has increased 413% year on year to US$36.7mil.
- NAV stands at US$0.4241 which at FX rate of 1.36 would be circa SGD$0.577 per share.
- Cash has ballooned to US$108.6mil (SGD$0.275 per share)
- a first interim dividend announced of SGD$0.005 per share

Seems like they will be going the way of handing out dividends to reward the shareholders. Be prepared for a bumper special dividend coming in for full year results!

If you have seen the prior posts on how the freight rates have climbed from June onwards, it would be fair to say that we should expect more bumper results in Q3. In between the delta variant causing more supply disruptions, seasonal stocking up of inventory for year end festivities, it can only make people wonder how much higher the freight rates can spike.
@Squirrel, your earlier analysis with specific 2Q financial projections has turned out to be SPOT ON!
However the mgt has disappointed with a paltry interim dividend of 0.5 cent/share.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23