ValueBuddies.com : Value Investing Forum - Singapore, Hong Kong, U.S.

Full Version: Tesla
You're currently viewing a stripped down version of our content. View the full version with proper formatting.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
https://electrek.co/2017/11/22/tesla-sem...ck-orders/

amazing. idk how they can command such high regard. tesla is the only co i know where customers say TAKE MY MONEY then wait years for the product to arrive (frequently not even on time).
These companies are desperate for electric truck probaby to comply with emission regulations.

The gigafactory must be churning out batteries now, the 100 day aussie power plant is now 50% complete ahead of schedule, now we know where all the model 3 batteries went...

Sent from my SM-T800 using Tapatalk
(23-11-2017, 10:16 AM)BRT Wrote: [ -> ]https://electrek.co/2017/11/22/tesla-sem...ck-orders/

amazing. idk how they can command such high regard. tesla is the only co i know where customers say TAKE MY MONEY then wait years for the product to arrive (frequently not even on time).

High regards and high demand. Not to forget, it is also cheap publicity for a low price (and 100% refundable, as far as I know) of the deposit.

Regarding Gigafactory, the market will believe it when they see it (producing battery at a 30% lower price than the industry average).

(vested)
Elon Musk's giant battery set for testing in South Australia

"
[SYDNEY] Billionaire Elon Musk's giant battery being built in the Australian outback will be energised in coming days and begin testing, indicating Tesla is on track to meet a 100-day self-imposed deadline to install the system.

Tesla power packs have now been fully installed on a site near a wind farm north of Adelaide and will be tested to ensure the battery meets standards laid down by the energy market operator, the South Australia state government said in a statement Thursday.
"

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-c...-australia
Talking about charging times - Currently gasoline takes ~5mins (or maybe 10-15mins if include some queuing). Tesla's superchargers take 30mins on a Model 3 (just the charging only). So unless charging technology significantly improves, else the "Tragedy of the Commons" will kick in - the more popular electric cars become, the more queuing up to recharge (ie. worst user experience).

Tesla’s Newest Promises Break the Laws of Batteries
Elon Musk touted ranges and charging times that don’t compute with the current physics and economics of batteries.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...-batteries
Only if u forgot to recharge or going long distance driving. For most urban user and weekend warrior, full charge at home overnight would be the norm and sufficient.

Also it is recommended to have a rest every few hours constant driving. A half an hour toilet stop, including makan and check your facebook whatsapp and even nap would be a perfect fit for the recharging.

And of course backup and maybe hot swappable battery packs will be easily developed. A hot swap battery pack will only take a couple mins to swap. Lets not forget EV has extra big empty space in the front which is perfect for more battery.

Just look at how we tackle the smartphone low battery problem. Similar solution for ev.

So the only remaining obstacle really is the cost of ownership.

Sent from my SM-T800 using Tapatalk
(25-11-2017, 04:20 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]Only if u forgot to recharge or going long distance driving. For most urban user and weekend warrior, full charge at home overnight would be the norm and sufficient.

Also it is recommended to have a rest every few hours constant driving. A half an hour toilet stop, including makan and check your facebook whatsapp and even nap would be a perfect fit for the recharging.

And of course backup and maybe hot swappable battery packs will be easily developed. A hot swap battery pack will only take a couple mins to swap. Lets not forget EV has extra big empty space in the front which is perfect for more battery.

Just look at how we tackle the smartphone low battery problem. Similar solution for ev.

So the only remaining obstacle really is the cost of ownership.

Sent from my SM-T800 using Tapatalk

That's on paper really. Since we have a Nobel Prize winner in Economics, Richard Thaler, who won based on his work on behaviors - let's maybe investigate abit more about human behaviors.

For a start - human behavior and biases are hard to change. That's a bit like the "First Law of Thaler human behavior".

- You would think that you want to charge at home. Well, i hope all electric cars come with portable chargers as part of the package when one buys an electric car in future...and it would occupy much household space until someone complains (well, maybe it can be retrofitted to fit the empty space in front?). And now, all of us lucky car drivers (in sg context) have to remember that we need to turn on the charging switch in the garage before we go to sleep. We may already have some practice if one already has the habit of charging our hp before we go to sleep at night?

- When i hit a charging station, it is easy to go for a toilet break. But i can't imagine my angst if i am in a hurry or late for my appointment. So now periodically without fail, i have to add another 30mins of my life, which is slightly more than 2% of a day, imprisoned at a place, with little choice. A car is supposed to liberate, not imprison me!

- I let you know on a little secret - I hate to have to learn how to change batteries myself. Maybe if i had learnt that in driving school, then i would think i should be doing so. Heck, i even prefer to drive to the gas station that has attendants helping me to pump petrol.

- The smartphone is more superior than the dumbphone and the value-add it brings, fall outweigh its nuisance. Besides saving the earth and lower maint costs, an electric car doesn't bring more superior user experience than a gasoline car. Then again, if we had mature driverless car tech + convenient car on demand services, then i wouldn't need to care about all the nuisances of electric car charging issues.

- Any related to technology, its CoO will always reduce - that's the ingenuity of Man and the benefits of capitalism+frictionless flow of ideas system. So electric car's CoO is not a matter of how, but when. I suspect the key to electric car's mass adoption is not solely dependent on CoO, but the adaptation/changes of the consumer's behavior/habits is also very critical. 

That said, humans can be nudged to abandon their biases and inertia in practice. That would be the "2nd Law of Thaler human behavior".
(25-11-2017, 04:20 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]Only if u forgot to recharge or going long distance driving. For most urban user and weekend warrior, full charge at home overnight would be the norm and sufficient.

Also it is recommended to have a rest every few hours constant driving. A half an hour toilet stop, including makan and check your facebook whatsapp and even nap would be a perfect fit for the recharging.

And of course backup and maybe hot swappable battery packs will be easily developed. A hot swap battery pack will only take a couple mins to swap. Lets not forget EV has extra big empty space in the front which is perfect for more battery.

Just look at how we tackle the smartphone low battery problem. Similar solution for ev.

So the only remaining obstacle really is the cost of ownership.

Sent from my SM-T800 using Tapatalk

If this human behaviour is true, then cell phone powerbank no biz Liao.

Not forgetting the rush to increase power in cell phone battery leading to short circuits and fire. Fire in your pocket and fire in the car is probably quite different. Let’s see if they mass produce model 3 if quality will not suffer. Samsung Battery gate is probably not even statistically significant when one produces 10m pieces, but one not likely want to be at tail end risk.

In my opinion the short term solution is the swappable battery pack. To expect instant gratification generation to wait half an hour to charge is not realistic
One problem that I've not gotten round my head is the infrastructure constraints in terms of the power grid.

Each Singaporean household consumes approximately 500kwh per month. Even the lowest end Tesla Model 3 has a capacity of 50kwh. Assuming that one charges approximately once every 2 days, the power consumption would still be greater than what a household consumes. 

Based on what I know, there are approximately 500,000 to 600,000 private passenger vehicles in Singapore.
(27-11-2017, 07:57 AM)HitandRun Wrote: [ -> ]One problem that I've not gotten round my head is the infrastructure constraints in terms of the power grid.

Each Singaporean household consumes approximately 500kwh per month. Even the lowest end Tesla Model 3 has a capacity of 50kwh. Assuming that one charges approximately once every 2 days, the power consumption would still be greater than what a household consumes. 

Based on what I know, there are approximately 500,000 to 600,000 private passenger vehicles in Singapore.

The electrical loads vary throughout the day and night. The electrical generation design is based on satisfying the peak power load that is most likely to happen in the morning. In the night, the power station will have to scale back the electrical generation and most likely, will have lots of idle power output since there is a minimal power generation limitation.

And, since most vehicles will be parked at night, it represents a good opportunity to fully utilize the power generation capability during off peak period.

http://www.keppelelectric.com/en/underst...&rsid=4267

If the sample bill is representative, the off peak tariff is only 8cts/kwh while peak tariff is 74cts. Close to ten times difference.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21