Tesla's TTM Revenue is $13.68B (+36% y-o-y), last year was $10.07B (+120% y-o-y), last last year was 4.568B (
https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/revenues_ttm).
In 2017, Tesla delivered 103k EVs (
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4141634...nuary-2018), in 1st half 2018 Tesla delivered 70.6k EVs (
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4192478...-july-2018).
Assuming that Tesla just made the same number of cars in 2H2018 as they did 1H2018, they would have increased unit output by 40%, but this number would likely be much higher, since they have only hit weekly run rate of 5-6k consistently quite recently (
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). 5k Model 3 per week would translate to an annual production rate of 262k per year or +250% increase in unit production rate compared to 2017.
The thesis of investing in Tesla is quite simple actually, they would continue to grow revenues about ~50% per year every year for the next 10 years. They would be making 350b in year 8 and assigning a 20 P/E multiple with a 10% profit margin, they would be worth 700b (the same Apple was worth in 2015). Elon made this prediction in 2015-2016, they seem on track.
Then there is another venture capitalist with even more bullish prediction: $4000 (700b market cap) in the next 5 years. You can read her full model in this open letter:
https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-private.
For me, I think both are pretty blue sky scenario. But I think Tesla will continue to outperform the rest of the auto industry in terms of growth rates, and gross margins due to brand name, operating efficiency ($0 marketing cost, vertical integration), and expands into more horizontal industries (luxury solar roofs, grid storage solutions, power walls, autonomous vehicles). And eventually they will be worth more than they are in the future than today.
Even if they simply double or triple or 4x in 10 years (instead of the 10+x as predicted by the more blue sky scenario), I win. At most, I lose a small percentage of my portfolio, at best, it may be a significant boost to my returns. YMMV
(vested in Tesla)
PS: I notice you assumed a net margin of 6.2% as the best case scenario, the assumption here is: EVs, due to the effect of technological advancement, battery price will keep falling at the same pace they did the last few decade (
https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/el...4d-4egzbcs). Adding Tesla's brand value, vertical integration, Tesla mobility as a service etc. etc. A higher margin is a possibility.
PS2: More in-depth discussion can be found in many places on the web, there are many Tesla bulls and bears alike who have contributed very sophisticated analysis. I simply did a back of the envelope calculation of the most common thesis presented by Tesla bulls.