As usual, excessive debate is futile (especially on subjective and unknowable matters). We can only see how things develop. A few quick points tho:
(1) Again, you are implying that Tesla already "lost" Europe, it's far too early. Especially before Giga Berlin comes online. And even today, Tesla still holds the market share lead for the highest selling single model:
https://europe.autonews.com/sales-segmen...models-lag Even though they are supply constrained and Model Y sill isn't available at volume in Europe yet. Do you think it's reasonable to assume that there might be some customers who really want an affordable SUV, holding out, because they know Giga Berlin may be coming online soon?
(2) Even though the entire car industry faces chip shortages. The difference between Tesla and traditional automakers are, traditional automakers aren't growing at ~100% revenue growth rate;
in spite of the shortage. In fact, many of their revenues are lower than their all time highs (pre-pandemic). And in cases like Ford, below their 2007 highs.
(3) Frankly, at the moment, the market is starting to value these automakers, mainly in terms of current and future EV productions and sales. And their traditional ICE business are valued as declining businesses. This is why you see the disparity in valuations, and the recent tick up the the market price of companies like GM, as they seem to have found their mojo back in EVs (as well as the surprise demand for cars, post-pandemic, causing the chip shortages, and driving up prices). It's yet to be seen if they really can compete in EVs though.
(4) The decline in Tesla's multiple is normal and expected (ie grow into it's valuation), and it's not solely driven by decline in market price; but net income and revenue expansion as well. I expect this trend to continue when it inevitably grows (barring unforeseen setbacks).
(5) Outside of Tesla, I'm frankly most bullish of the young startups like Nio, Xpeng etc. But I don't know much about them, and I have no idea they will succeed. I used to invest in BYD, however, after a few years, it was clear that it was underperforming the growth of the entire sector in China. Just because something is cheaper, doesn't mean it will get market share.
(6) Self-driving tech. This is a very interesting debate. Inherently, in the case of Deep Learning (what's behind most self-driving tech), you can't really "steal the software". It requires a rich and constantly updating dataset. In the case of Tesla, it has thousands of fans, constantly and actively "volunteering" to test-drive the beta (frequently, in difficult edge case conditions), and training the algorithm (
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+fsd). I haven't even seen similar OTA-updating "self-driving betas" copied by competitors + deployed en-masse yet; let alone the thousands of fans around the world volunteering and training the software.
At this point Tesla already solved many of these issues (building a fanbase, building scale and volume etc) and is cash flow positive. Whereas, even extremely strong consumer brands would need to retrace the beaten path taken by Tesla; some have given up before they even started (e.g. Dyson) after they did the cost benefit analysis; some have tried and failed (IMO BYD, now at 4th place globally).
It's not impossible to catch up at Tesla at this point. I am just not seeing any obvious competitor yet.
(7) Also, you may be interested to see the teardown of Tesla's closest competitors by industry experts:
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/05/02/san...ress-more/