(31-01-2012, 08:11 PM)hongonn Wrote: [ -> ] (31-01-2012, 06:06 PM)newborn1000 Wrote: [ -> ]Yo everyone, hope some of you guys manage to buy into the bottom......
Though many people still say it will crash......
Hehe, i prefer crash than bull market. One is for the excitements, catching the falling knives, second is i will be busy and more involved to the market.
Let me guess, a gut feel the trigger point of next serious crash maybe come from China, not Europe not US. When China collapses, maybe it will collapse hard, with all the crazy local debts, crazy house prices and crazy luxury spendings. Because personally i felt, China is crazier than Europe or US, and the karma will come soon or later :p
I got a different take, if u want a crash like 2007-2008.......you cannot have a problem that is seen by everyone, it must be swift and deadly eg Asian 1997, and 2007 sub-prime
The market is a lot things.....some say supermarket, casino......but it really discounts future activity, problems of europe and china is too well known
(31-01-2012, 08:19 PM)newborn1000 Wrote: [ -> ] (31-01-2012, 08:11 PM)hongonn Wrote: [ -> ] (31-01-2012, 06:06 PM)newborn1000 Wrote: [ -> ]Yo everyone, hope some of you guys manage to buy into the bottom......
Though many people still say it will crash......
Hehe, i prefer crash than bull market. One is for the excitements, catching the falling knives, second is i will be busy and more involved to the market.
Let me guess, a gut feel the trigger point of next serious crash maybe come from China, not Europe not US. When China collapses, maybe it will collapse hard, with all the crazy local debts, crazy house prices and crazy luxury spendings. Because personally i felt, China is crazier than Europe or US, and the karma will come soon or later :p
I got a different take, if u want a crash like 2007-2008.......you cannot have a problem that is seen by everyone, it must be swift and deadly eg Asian 1997, and 2007 sub-prime
The market is a lot things.....some say supermarket, casino......but it really discounts future activity, problems of europe and china is too well known
Yes, there are many different types of bears. Slow and steady moving one; before you know it, Mr Market declares it. The most fear one is the "black- swan's" type of bear. This bear will inflict massive damages, panic and fear in the world. And many people will just follow the march of the lemmings. This is the time you have to summon your guts to look for fire-sale valuable companies.
i do lose some of my guts to buy some of the companies at this time; especially as i grow older. As you grow older, you grow a little bit shorter.
Ha! Ha!
No choice.....older people got more responsibility, lesser time till retirement
....
(There are people who always complain about their bad luck but in reality Lady Luck has given them many many chances and choices. Right now we are in a bull run. Not sure when it will stop but those who are stuck in 'crap' stocks like certain S-chips should take opportunity to get out instead of sinking more of their money in. Stop blaming on luck. It's your greediness)
The TRUTH About The Massive Plunge In The Baltic Dry Index
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-truth...dex-2012-1
The Chancellor Who Played with Fire
http://www.project-syndicate.org/comment...70/English
(31-01-2012, 08:19 PM)newborn1000 Wrote: [ -> ]I got a different take, if u want a crash like 2007-2008.......you cannot have a problem that is seen by everyone, it must be swift and deadly eg Asian 1997, and 2007 sub-prime
The market is a lot things.....some say supermarket, casino......but it really discounts future activity, problems of europe and china is too well known
I seek to slightly differ on this - GFC2008 was not swift. The initial cracks already started in 2007 (Fed Reserve interest rate cuts, Alan greenspan's warning, banks writing off mortgages on their balance sheet), played out in 1H2008 (Bear Stearns bankruptcy) and the finale came when the gov decided not to bail out Lehman Bros in Sept08.
Finally, if the GENERAL CONSENSUS expect a crash to be swift and fast - maybe the opposite will be true instead??
Think my post wasnt very clear cut......
It will be swift and deadly only when it's not expected.....even though there were cracks and interest rate was lower to remedy it, there wasnt a very sharp fall, it was only slow drifting downwards......only 20-25% drop in about 1yr
Sharp drop only happen after lehman fell, and inter-bank lending went to the desert.....
After typing, i realize version of sharp fall might be different from mine......i referring to ard 30% in 3 weeks
(01-02-2012, 04:46 PM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ][quote='newborn1000' pid='18436' dateline='1328012366']
Finally, if the GENERAL CONSENSUS expect a crash to be swift and fast - maybe the opposite will be true instead??
i certainty hope so.......