Foreland Fabrictech

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Foreland today traded at S$0.084 which is a new 52 week low. This despite their 1Q12 results being very much in line with expectations. Am looking forward to the payment of the final dividend for FY2011 and 2Q12 results which they have guided should not give any nasty surprises.

Thankfully volumes have not been very heavy for the last few weeks when the price has been slowly creeping down. Is it smaller shareholders bailing out due to the uncertain overall economic climate. Perhaps they feel its better to be safe than sorry...

I am looking forward to 2Q12 results and am hoping that Foreland bumps up their interim dividend payment. Last year it was RMB0.027. In fact the dividend yield on the stock is close to 10% at current market price. This can be a value investor's dream come true if they can continue with the steady performance and the market slowly wakes up to the true worth of the company...Is it wishful thinking on my part...only time will tell...
"You are right not because the world agrees or disagrees with you, rather you are right because your facts & reasoning are right."
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Wow!!! Foreland has just traded at S$0.077. The price seems to be touching new lows each day. Is something amiss with the company.

I am not very sure. Can only await their 2Q12 results to be announced in Week 2 of August.

Would appreciate views from others interested in Foreland...Any idea on what is happening and why these new 52 week lows every day...
"You are right not because the world agrees or disagrees with you, rather you are right because your facts & reasoning are right."
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I am not familiar with the stock, but I saw an article in zaobao

http://www.zaobao.com.sg/cz/cz120622_002.shtml

Is it due to the news?
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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I'm sorry but I cannot read Mandarin. Can anybody help translate the article or atleast the relevant parts...

(22-06-2012, 05:05 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: I am not familiar with the stock, but I saw an article in zaobao

http://www.zaobao.com.sg/cz/cz120622_002.shtml

Is it due to the news?
"You are right not because the world agrees or disagrees with you, rather you are right because your facts & reasoning are right."
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(22-06-2012, 05:21 PM)sgmystique Wrote: I'm sorry but I cannot read Mandarin. Can anybody help translate the article or atleast the relevant parts...

(22-06-2012, 05:05 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: I am not familiar with the stock, but I saw an article in zaobao

http://www.zaobao.com.sg/cz/cz120622_002.shtml

Is it due to the news?

中国库存服装三年也卖不完

The current china inventory for garment can last more than 3 years of sale

I hope my translation work Big Grin
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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(22-06-2012, 05:29 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:
(22-06-2012, 05:21 PM)sgmystique Wrote: I'm sorry but I cannot read Mandarin. Can anybody help translate the article or atleast the relevant parts...

(22-06-2012, 05:05 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: I am not familiar with the stock, but I saw an article in zaobao

http://www.zaobao.com.sg/cz/cz120622_002.shtml

Is it due to the news?

中国库存服装三年也卖不完

The current china inventory for garment can last more than 3 years of sale

I hope my translation work Big Grin

If you use Google Chrome as the browser, there's a tool bar which'll appear that allows you to do a translation to English. Not perfect but you should be able to get the gist of the content. I reproduce below (refer to 'CityFarmer' translation for the header as it's a lot more accurate),

Chinese stocks clothing purchase large amounts over three years

(AP) According to Chinese media quoted industry sources said, if the current national inventory of clothing Nachulaimai, three years might purchase large amounts, we can see that the Chinese apparel industry is currently facing high pressure on the stock of the status quo.
  Moreover, some caught in the maelstrom of high inventories of enterprise funds strand breaks elevated risk, leading to market concerns about their ability to operate even questioned.

  Insiders pointed out that the economic downturn situation, the slow down of inventory turnover, and both occupy the operations of liquidity has led to the enterprise can not update the product, but not new there is no way to attract more customers, our business would decline in serious , thus exacerbating the cash flow difficulties, and even ultimately resulting in the dire straits of the entire business.

  Shanghai's Wen Wei Po "reported the large-scale garment enterprises listed on, or some small and medium enterprises in order to digest the inventory, have been offering discount promotions.

European debt crisis dragged down

  Shanghai Insiders also revealed that the two years, Shanghai shopping malls and apparel export markets dragged down by the European debt crisis, reduced orders, and turn to commence in the domestic market promotion, digest inventory.

  In the current high inventory, the report said, experts pointed out that the apparel business promotion none other can only be an emergency. The long run, enhance product innovation and design, reducing the homogenization, the establishment of a sophisticated inventory control process, in order to enable enterprises to sell one to earn a "rather than" buy one get one free ".

  The report quoted Bo cover consulting, Managing Director of Janus, inventory is a common problem of garment enterprises, "the industry to see who can make money, to see who stocks cleaner."

  In addition, the inventory is the most serious sports and leisure apparel companies, especially sportswear due to the design and materials selection to be limited, serious homogeneity, the fact that many domestic brand positioning is unclear, constantly weakening of the competitive advantage.

  Li Ning recently released data show that the 2012 fourth quarter order, the order number and order of the amount of apparel products fell more than 20%. The company admitted that, in order to avoid new stock pressure on the retail side, companies take the initiative to communicate with the dealers, control orders arrangements and plans committed to cleaning up the retail end inventory.

Tintin discount network message, the Chinese garment industry pressure on the stock for six months before gradually taken shape. Some enterprises of the public reported a surge in inventory value. As of September 30, 2011, for example, Metersbonwe amount of inventories as high as 2.982 billion yuan (RMB, same below about 595 million dollars), accounting for the proportion of net assets of more than 83%; as of June 30, 2011 the Xtep the amount of inventories of 887 million yuan, an increase of about 92%. Li Ning Company in the amount of inventories in the first half of 2011 to 992 million yuan, Previously, the amount of inventory at the end of 2010 only 806 million yuan.
Luck & Fortune Favours those who are Prepared & Decisive when Opportunity Knocks
------------ 知己知彼 ,百战不殆 ;不知彼 ,不知己 ,每战必殆 ------------
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Thanks KopiKat & CityFarmer...However the article does not mention anything in specific for Foreland. And anyways Foreland is too small a player. It is possible they may emerge not greatly affected by this slowdown (That's the optimistic shareholder in me speaking up Rolleyes
"You are right not because the world agrees or disagrees with you, rather you are right because your facts & reasoning are right."
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(22-06-2012, 05:59 PM)sgmystique Wrote: Thanks KopiKat & CityFarmer...However the article does not mention anything in specific for Foreland. And anyways Foreland is too small a player. It is possible they may emerge not greatly affected by this slowdown (That's the optimistic shareholder in me speaking up Rolleyes


sgmystique,
foreland generate around 40%(can't remember actual figures) of revenue from umbrella, so that should provide some kind of buffer to that over surplus of stockpile. To me, the one thing that will break foreland, or clear the clouds (at least for me), will be the confirmation of the new facilities at andong. The plan to build the facilities starts during its prospectus, and the estimated cost of building it as of november 2009 is 438 million rmb, of which 252 million of cost is already recognized in its 2011 dec AR. The status of the new facilities cannot be a infinitely delayed. I am not so concerned about slowing profits, as I believe the price has already priced in such events happening, as well as they have the financial strength to survive the winter(No debt, etc). However, if the facilities turned out to be a white elephant, I believe the impairment will be rather significant.

Then again, at 7.5 cents, I accumulate further. Hope they bring good q2 results (Which management believe they can), and some positive updates regarding the facilities. If they give some interm dividends, then there might be some relief. If however, i still do not get any news of the faclilties over the next 12 months, i might just bailed out if the price is right.
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The price touched S$0.071 today, again with fairly decent volume of over 1200 lots...still wondering about the reason for this sudden downturn in prices with relatively larger volumes...who is doing the selling is what matters...if it is small shareholders who have been spooked by this downturn i am not too worried, but if it is management selling on the side...that wud worry me a lot. Anyways we should have an announcement soon on whether Mr. Tsoi Kin Chit has again picked up his dividends (The final dividend of S$0.00297) in the form of scrip at a price of S$0.086. If he has done that it should really give a boost to the share price in times to come...

Well, Mr. Tsoi Kin Chit has decided to take up his entire dividend as scrip in Foreland at S$0.086. His stake in the company thus goes up by 9,768,242 shares to 292,619,700 shares (i.e. 53.95 % as a percentage of issued share capital). So I guess the selling is definitely not by management. This should calm down nervous investors a bit and we should hopefully see a rebound in the share price tomorrow Smile

Cheers to all Foreland die-hard fans...
"You are right not because the world agrees or disagrees with you, rather you are right because your facts & reasoning are right."
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Chairman Tsoi Kin Chit's decision to receive his entire FY12 Final dividend in new Foreland shares.....
http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument
is obviously a rational one - bearing in mind the current share price and issue price for the new shares are substantially below its corresponding NAV/share and likely also its intrinsic value - as it allows him to increase his stake in the company in a meaningful way and at a low cost.

The latest weather forecast shows it is going to rain in the next few days across most Chinese cities......
http://www.travelchinaguide.com/climate/
so retail sales of umbrella should be good, which means umbrella manufacturers will have to replenish their fabrics inventory, or may even buy a lot more fabrics!
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