Oil Prices

[BlueKelah]

Lol oil up again, more freeze talks coming. Sound like the oil market still rigged

Funny leh oil up but stock not up much leh

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[gzbkel]

There is a OSV open house at Vivocity, today is the last day.
You can tour the inside of two OSVs. Free, but registration required.

http://www.osvatvivo.org/

[fundamentalman]

the trend is towards more fuel-efficient vehicles & electric vehicles due to govt mandates & incentives in big economices like china, usa, and japan.

not to mention more technologically advanced rigs being deployed today, which recover oil at higher ratios ...

i just don't see how oil price can sustain above 50 dollars in the long run ...

[CityFarmer]

World Bank prediction on oil price trend...

World Bank raises oil price forecasts, predicts decline in commodity prices

KUALA LUMPUR (April 27): Improving market sentiment and the weakening dollar have made World Bank raise its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to US$41 from US$37 per barrel in a quarterly report published yesterday.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...ity-prices

[CityFarmer]

The Kuwait's expectation on oil price. It sound good to me, but not sure the price is under-controlled?  

Oil to stabilise at US$50-60 by end-2016: Kuwait's KPI
By Reuters / Reuters   | May 3, 2016 : 6:27 PM MYT  

DUBAI (May 3): The chief executive of Kuwait Petroleum International said on Tuesday that he expected oil prices to stabilise between US$50 and US$60 a barrel by the end of 2016 or early 2017, Kuwait's official KUNA news agency reported.

It also quoted Bakheet al-Rashidi as saying prices could reach US$80 a barrel in three to four years' time. Brent crude is currently around US$46 a barrel.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...uwaits-kpi

[BlueKelah]

The Kuwait's expectation on oil price. It sound good to me, but not sure the price is under-controlled?  

Oil to stabilise at US$50-60 by end-2016: Kuwait's KPI
By Reuters / Reuters   | May 3, 2016 : 6:27 PM MYT  

DUBAI (May 3): The chief executive of Kuwait Petroleum International said on Tuesday that he expected oil prices to stabilise between US$50 and US$60 a barrel by the end of 2016 or early 2017, Kuwait's official KUNA news agency reported.

It also quoted Bakheet al-Rashidi as saying prices could reach US$80 a barrel in three to four years' time. Brent crude is currently around US$46 a barrel.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...uwaits-kpi

according to a bloomberg article today that is the expectation of the oil futures market as they expect oil price to be limited by reactivation and pumping of shale oil once it becomes profitable again at the $50-$60 level. So Kuwait expectation is really nothing more than a direct statement on the current oil futures market.

Oil Price Rally Isn't as Deep Rooted as It Looks at First Glance

oh and the OPEC secretary general or something mentioned they might try for another discussion to freeze oil production in June so that speculation is probably whats keeping prices above $40 for now.

[sgd]

I have a suspicion the saudi's oil production is already in decline, oil well decline starts from 50% production.

according to wikileaks saudi reserves may have been overstated by as much as  40% based on 716 billion barrel reserve

I did check this site and calculate the saudi reserves not sure accuracy of data

source: http://www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/p...gy_oil.pdf - pages2 pages16


year discovered: Abqaiq 1941   
reported size blb: 13-19 


year discovered: Ghawar   1948 
reported size blb: 66-150    


year discovered: Safaniya 1951 
reported size blb: 21-55     


year discovered: Manifa   1957 
reported size blb: 11-23      


year discovered: Khurais   1957 
reported size blb: 13-19      


year discovered: Berri     1964 
reported size blb: 10-25     


year discovered: Zuluf     1965 
reported size blb: 11-20 


year discovered: Shaybah  1968 
reported size blb: 7-22 


Total 333 billion barrels reserve for varying years
at 50% peak production is 166.5 billion barrels


if assume wikileaks to be true that reserves overstated how much is the actual. And when their industry took off from 1951 to today how much has been produced I leave it to you I have done various calculations 


So conventional thinking is if you have less then you should use less or cut back right? 


if you run a company into problems would you announce to all employees suppliers bankers that you have a big problem
or would you try to put up a show of prosperity so that workers will not leave and suppliers bankers will still give you a smile and friendly credit.


So they run up huge expenses glut world oil supply and fight 2 wars in yemen and syria but at same time without being too obvious raise taxes, sell assets, ipo, trying to woo investors.

[CityFarmer]

The US oil industry, is starting to slim-down...

US oil industry bankruptcy wave nears size of telecom bust

HOUSTON (May 4): The rout in crude prices is snowballing into one of the biggest avalanches in the history of corporate America, with 59 oil and gas companies now bankrupt after this week's filings for creditor protection by Midstates Petroleum and Ultra Petroleum.

The number of US energy bankruptcies is closing in on the staggering 68 filings seen during the depths of the telecom bust of 2002 and 2003, according to Reuters data, the law firm Haynes & Boone and bankruptcydata.com.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...lecom-bust

[specuvestor]

^^ US oil production according to EIA dropped below 9m barrels in early April... 3 months later than my end 2015 expectation that I posted a year ago. Yet oil price collapse to <US$30 which is way below my $45ish bottom expectation

The oil market has too much competing interests from cartel to politics to funding... relearning my lesson

[CityFarmer]

You need god-like foresight, to estimate the supply, within reasonably accurate...

Hits to Americas oil output show global glut not invincible

HOUSTON - Wildfires in Canada. Pipeline sabotage in Colombia. Instability in Venezuela. U.S. frackers at a standstill. Drops in oil output are happening so fast that it looks as if the Americas alone could resolve global oversupply.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/hits...invincible