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IMO, oil bottom will only arrive after iran comes back online. Afterall, the market has to know what is the maximum production iran can export daily. Else, it will always be a guessing game.
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Good Afternoon Everyone.
Futures market tumble shows US oil will not reach us$50 for 6.5 years.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-c...r-65-years
Not a call to Buy or Sell
Mr Bump: All I Can Smell Is My FEAR
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(15-01-2016, 10:17 AM)weijian Wrote: (13-01-2016, 02:09 PM)kbl Wrote: Good Afternoon Everyone.
Futures market tumble shows US oil will not reach us$50 for 6.5 years.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-c...r-65-years
thats funny. i dont remember any previous 3yr/5yr futures contract saying oil will be 30usd in jan2016.
The oil price forecasts, by either the insiders and industrial experts, are often ended up with surprises.
The most common forecast, about months ago, is $50 pb. I reckon, we may see more surprises in years ahead.
The best is to ignore the top level forecast, and focus on bottom-up approach on companies, IMO
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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15-01-2016, 11:11 AM
(This post was last modified: 15-01-2016, 11:13 AM by CY09.
Edit Reason: edits
)
For me, I am looking at oil price according to demand/supply.
Demand will slowly pick up no doubt, ceteris paribus in economic conditions
However supply of oil is different. At current situation, iran and US conventional sources will be adding in their supply this year onwards.
When oil hits about US$50, shale oil and the small US family size producers will join in the fray.
From this line of reasoning, I am looking at how oil majors will plan their CAPEX and how oil demand derive companies like Keppel/Semb marine or the other group , Hai Leck/PEC will benefit/lose according to these oil majors plans.
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Oil will stay low for more than 3 years kind of thing ( MY GUESS ). Even when Oil price pick-up within or outside 3 years, is more of major policy change of Saudi. Price is cyclic but may not be at the profitable level for sea rig operation considering we have shale oil supply at the ceiling. To me is a game changer for Kep Corp and SBM.
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This low oil price environment is engineered by them..
A master tactician will not end the game until they see their opponents to the end, and make sure there's no return. I believe it will be a bottom only when middle east SWF starts buying the heavily beaten down companies.