Oil Prices

[HitandRun]

Create paper for acquiring shares of shale plays and other oil companies.

It would have been a good decision had this been their intention but PXD have also publicly said that they are going to throw another 2.5 billion on additional drilling...

[alex]

Personal opinion:

This year, more drillers will be closing shop. More hedging contracts expire, less cashflow. This will be a year, this industry face up to their problems. No more hiding. The tide is going out. Those nude will be shown. Question: Who are the counter parties of these hedges?

Expect more to go bust, before consolidation will happen. Recovery- at least 2 years more to go.

Cost needs to be efficient. This industry is fat.. Need to trim down their staffs salaries expectations. We haven't seen enough job lose, and pay cuts. This means to me, they are still struggling and hoping for a upturn in prices.

[CityFarmer]

Personal opinion:

This year, more drillers will be closing shop. More hedging contracts expire, less cashflow. This will be a year, this industry face up to their problems. No more hiding. The tide is going out. Those nude will be shown. Question: Who are the counter parties of these hedges?

Expect more to go bust, before consolidation will happen. Recovery- at least 2 years more to go.

Cost needs to be efficient. This industry is fat.. Need to trim down their staffs salaries expectations. We haven't seen enough job lose, and pay cuts. This means to me, they are still struggling and hoping for a upturn in prices.

IMO, we shouldn't ignore the cut in capex of oil majors around the world. It will eventually push supply down too, not only the shale drillers. Generally, the capex cut is around 20% in general.

[desmondxyz]

Personal opinion:

This year, more drillers will be closing shop. More hedging contracts expire, less cashflow. This will be a year, this industry face up to their problems. No more hiding. The tide is going out. Those nude will be shown. Question: Who are the counter parties of these hedges?

Expect more to go bust, before consolidation will happen. Recovery- at least 2 years more to go.

Cost needs to be efficient. This industry is fat.. Need to trim down their staffs salaries expectations. We haven't seen enough job lose, and pay cuts. This means to me, they are still struggling and hoping for a upturn in prices.

IMO, we shouldn't ignore the cut in capex of oil majors around the world. It will eventually push supply down too, not only the shale drillers. Generally, the capex cut is around 20% in general.

I thought the problem not only with the supply, the demand is low as well......btw, Iran will be more than happy to fill up the supply gap, should OPEC or whoever cut supply....

[GPD]

So far on supply side no one is giving in. On demand what is China did is telling market that their growth is going to be lower than what the market is expecting. However, I thought US is the biggest consumers of oil? Why all eyes on China only?

[CityFarmer]

So far on supply side no one is giving in.  On demand what is China did is telling market that their growth is going to be lower than what the market is expecting.  However, I thought US is the biggest consumers of oil?  Why all eyes on China only?

U.S. is net oil exporter now, isn't it?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...wo-decades

[CY09]

Hi Cityfarmer,

You are right. Prior to 2014, US energy policy was to strategically import oil while not drawing on its own oil reserves. However all that changed in 2014 and from 2016, US has begun massive exporting of its domestic oil.

This is one of the reasons why global oil supply is surging as US has joined the fray. China is the big player left who is demanding oil

[BlueKelah]

And China's oil demand growth in nov slowed to 1.5% yoy to 10.95mil bpd. That's just around 0.15mil bpd growth. Iran will be selling extra 1mil bpd this year once sanctions lifted and further ramp up some more.

More than enough oil to go around in 2016.

Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

[D123]

However all that changed in 2014 and from 2016, US has begun massive exporting of its domestic oil.

Not quite right.

According to US EIA, the US is still a net importer of crude oil to the tune of 7 million barrels per day in the last week of 2015.
See weekly data here: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkl...blpd_w.htm

Another measure is the monthly trade balance report from the Department of Commerce, which measured more than US$5 bn worth of petroleum exports in November 2015.
See latest monthly report here: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Pres...1/exh9.txt

The article posted also mentioned that,
"Net exports - comprising only oil products since the U.S. bans most shipments of crude..." and
"The U.S. imports oil from various countries including Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Net oil imports into the U.S. dropped to 4.5 million barrels a day in July..."
(not sure how they got this number though since if you look at EIA data, the figure should be 6.5 million instead)

According to this WSJ article:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/congressiona...1450242995
the US Congress has voted to end the crude export ban, but the House and Senate still has to vote on it.

[CY09]

Both houses have approved the bill. President has signed the bill as well. Fyi