Malaysia Airlines hunt for missing plane

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#61
(25-03-2014, 06:42 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Obviously if terrorist took the plane, terrorist won't claim responsibility until they have loaded it with the appropriate nuclear/weapons and fly it to US or UK target.

Best case is pirates took the plane and dismantle it for spare parts to sell and will be releasing the passengers home soon.

I don't share your view this is related to terrorists, usually I see they lack resources and are not very well funded but make up for in bravery and willingness to commit violence to reach their goals. The hallmark of all terrorism is they like to recruit highly motivated usually young people who are uneducated, see no future in their life and angry at authority or western powers hence easily influenced to commit these terror acts. I just don't see how these people can easily turn off complicated electronics on a jumbo jet plane.

Another reason why I discount the terrorist hijack is that all these groups are being closely monitored by intelligence and law enforcement all over the world, we see from the past terrorist cases a prelude to something big intelligence agencies will pick up hints in the form of "coded chatter" communication between various terror groups and there was no chatter, interpol has ruled out terrorism.
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#62
after the sg penny 8-9b rout last oct orchestrated by Malaysian mgt
followed by the 1mio cap for foreign property investors,
now come the part where their military radar detected an out of way plane cutting from east to west side of the peninsula and yet allowed it to pass & did nothing proactively
I dun think I will apply for the Malaysia my 2nd home..sounds scary so far to me
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#63
(25-03-2014, 06:42 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:
(25-03-2014, 02:07 PM)sgd Wrote:
(20-03-2014, 11:35 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: http://mh370shadow.com/

check out the link, this is the theory i currently believe Big Grin

MH370 intercepting and following in SQ68 shadow all the way up to Turkmenistan where the taliban have control over.

Someone somewhere is trying to take revenge for Obama killing Osama. O My God ...

Ah .. you forget all Terrorists fight and die for their cause/struggle, if an act committed by them somebody will always claim responsibility for it.

nobody has to date stepped forward to claim any responsibility for this.

My hunch is equipment freak malfunction, they lost all communication and were flying blind didn't know where they were going could explain their zig zag flight path they just flew until they ran out of fuel.

Unlikely to be equipment malfunction as the communication stuff was turned of in a set pattern that is done on purpose. Also if the Immersat satellite really had the last position of contact, I would think this info would be easily available from the satellite and should have been provided when they said last week they had signal for hours after the plane lost contact by secondary radar. So have they actually withheld info until now? It is unlikely it takes a whole week to process the satellite data as every ping should have been picked up with a corresponding GPS location and Immersat knew that long time ago.

Manual landing is still possible if electronics really malfunction. Pilot did steer the plane to climb up then down. Given their SKILLZ they should have been able to easily land on water. If really steering malfuntion the plane would have continue to descend and crash into ocean when they did the descent over penang airspace.

So it all still seems very suspicious to me. It is also easier to say the plane is lost so Malaysian Airlines can start to claim insurance for lost plane and cargo. If in any case the plane was abducted and passengers survive, everyone will be too happy to know their relatives alive and won't bother to complain about Najib's announcement.

Obviously if terrorist took the plane, terrorist won't claim responsibility until they have loaded it with the appropriate nuclear/weapons and fly it to US or UK target.

Best case is pirates took the plane and dismantle it for spare parts to sell and will be releasing the passengers home soon.

No thought put into this theory. Absolutely no basis whatsoever. The quality of posts in this thread is degenerating rapidly.

#1. When the pilot puts the transponder unit into "standby" mode, thereby "turning off" the transponder signal of the aircraft, the pilot is literally flying blind, since he cannot sense any other aircraft positions other his own. This is a Jetliner for crying out loud. Do you really think the pilot can shadow another aircraft while flying blind?!?!?!

#2. When an air incident such as this happens, what would naturally be the first course of action? To check satellite imagery for info debris? Events and actions have a course to follow before reaching various stages of developments. When a surface search and rescue effort fails to yield results, info such as satellite imagery and all the other high-tech stuff starts to filter in. Granted, the government's handling of the incident may have been shoddy, but understand one thing, in a situation such as this, many hands spoil the soup. The more parties and theories and false sightings reported, the greater the chance of failure is introduced.

#3. Manual landing of an aircraft is very much possible... ON LAND. That is why landing gears are built with WHEELS and BRAKES and not FLOATS and PROPELLERS... Give it some thought, this is a JETLINER, carrying easily over 300 tonnes of metal structure, passengers, cargo and fuel. How easy is it to land it on water, you think? How many successful landings on water have you heard of in your lifetime?

#4. In all sanity, which airline in the world would be keen to "claim insurance" for aircraft/passenger losses?!?! Do you understand the extremity of what you have just proposed?

#5. The aviation industry is a highly regulated and strict world. Especially so for National Carriers. Any airline that can afford to buy a B777, let alone a fleet of them, can ill-afford to purchase black market parts. Understand that in an aircraft like a B777, important components and parts are serialised and tracked over the course of it's lifespan from the day of manufacture until it is scrapped. You cannot simply strip an aircraft and put it's parts on the black market, because NO airline would purchase them.

To the Mods, please start moderating this thread seriously. In a reputable forum, especially in a sensitive thread such as this, posts need to be carefully thought out, not blurted out with ridiculous theories and speculations. This is not SBF. It pains me to have to read such nonsense, especially when there are people out there in anguish daily with all the rubbish being put forth.

Angry
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#64
I applaud Jon-san for bringing this to a higher level of discussion. Part of the problem is we are all swept up by this media frenzy which we are all at fault. You should see this clip on how the media fed into this frenzy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xy8YlAKlQg

We should all maintain a calm perspective and not get suck into this. On the same token should we all be migrating from Singapore just becos there is a riot and unsafe or due to the bad haze and move on to greener environment, scary enough? Best part of the shadowing plane article is that at the end of the article there is a donate pls. Probably goes to a Nigerian account.
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#65
Some of the theory is beyond logic. Anyway this topic is not about investment. Let's not be too obsessed in controlling or moderating posts imo. Is good to be more lenient to hear diversity of views whenever possible.

Just my Diary
corylogics.blogspot.com/


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#66
Thanks Jon-san and Jacmar to bring it up.

Yes, I fully agree with both of you. Personally, besides praying and sending my condolences, two more things I am doing for the families

- maximum tolerance on those last things they are doing for their families' members. I mean no criticism from me.
- no "share" of any news/article beside official news update, and no speculation online, not only on VB, but on other online platforms.

VB is a serious platform, and let's make it special. We can continue to update/discuss on official updates, but NO MORE further speculation or re-post of rumours. I will remove all rumours. All non-official statements are regarded as rumours.

Thanks

Regards
Moderator
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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#67
I will also remove further discussion on the previously posted rumours.

Please take note

Regards
Moderator
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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#68
I thought this might be helpful, in explaining probability, speculation and everything else. Some good pointers there about Bayesian thinking that might well apply to investing :


Why Speculation About MH370 is Evidence of Innumeracy
Posted on 2014-03-17 by TJ

Modern air travel is ridiculously safe. Aircraft are not designed using prayer, or crystals, or chi, or any other pre-scientific or anti-scientific “way of knowing” that is demonstrably far less effective than publicly testing ideas by some combination of systematic observation, controlled experiment and Bayesian inference.

Pilots are not trained by looking to the Bible or the Quran or the Guru Granth Sahib as a guide, but using principles that have been worked out by publicly testing ideas by some combination of systematic observation, controlled experiment and Bayesian inference (wouldn’t it be great if we had a word for that discipline that everyone understood, so we could use that word and not have some ignoramous smugly declare that publicly testing ideas by some combination systematic observation, controlled experiment and Bayesian inference couldn’t prove everything?)

In any case, thanks to all that work by people “who do not teach their God will rouse them/just before the bolts work loose” major airline disasters are unbelievably rare, which is to say: extremely improbable.

That means that when a disaster does happen, the cause is almost certain to be some extremely improbable confluence of events, be it multiple failures of independent systems or some unexpected interaction of systems in combination (the Ariane V explosion was of the latter kind: all the individual sub-systems worked properly, but in combination they destroyed the rocket.)

When we speculate on the possible causes for an event, we are properly limited to things that are not vastly less probable than the most common known causes. The famous medical dictum, “When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras” applies. There are a variety of causes for the sound of hoofbeats, and the most probable ones will be the cause most of the time because horses, even in modern cities with modern police forces, are just not that rare. I don’t think a year has gone by in my adult life that I didn’t encounter a police horse in a downtown area somewhere.

The relatively high probability of the most common cause in such cases sharply limits the range of speculation, because there just aren’t that many things that are comparably probable.

In the case of air disasters, however, the most common causes are incredibly low probability events. There is a huge range of things that have comparably low probability, and that means the field for speculation is very nearly unbounded, so we can wander across it almost endlessly, never getting any wiser, never getting any closer to the truth.

Speculation in such cases adds nothing. It is not like the case where there are a small number of highly probable causes. In such cases we might be able to exhaustively examine the minutia of the evidence and distinguish between them. But that is only possible because they are so few.

In the case where the most common cause is wildly improbable, it is simply not possible to pluck one hypothesis from the vast array of more-or-less equally plausible ones and study it to the point where it can be significantly raised or lowered in plausibility. For one, it is the nature of vastly improbable events to be very sensitive to detailed assumptions, so the lack of knowledge that surrounds air disasters in their early stages leaves room for different speculators to come to vastly different conclusions based on tiny differences in how they fill in the huge gaps in available information.

As such, engaging in speculation as to what happened to MH370 as if that speculation will ever carry us one whit closer to understanding what happened is strong evidence of innumeracy. The people who are doing this simply do not understand the numerical realities of Bayesian inference in such situations.

This is not to say that such speculation can’t be entertaining, and if people want to entertain each other by making up stories around indistinguishably implausible hypotheses, I’m going to consider them somewhat heartless, cruel and inhumane–because this is after all the tragic disappearance of over 200 human beings–but I won’t call them innumerate.

Still, apart from the rather goulish entertainment value, we should all understand that this is a time for mourning, and silence, and careful study of the few data we have in the hope that physically searching–which is nothing but the testing of the ideas “MH370 is at location X/Y” using systematic observation–will lead us to evidence of what actually occurred. The thing we can be practically certain of is that speculation will not.

http://www.tjradcliffe.com/?p=1364

There's a good article by James Fallow too on the Atlantic:
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ar...on/284610/
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#69
BANGKOK: Thai satellite images have shown 300 floating objects in the southern Indian Ocean during a search for the missing Malaysian airliner, an official said Thursday.

The objects, ranging from two to 15 metres (6.5 to 50 feet) in size, were scattered over an area about 2,700 kilometres (1,680 miles) southwest of Perth, according to the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency.

"But we cannot -- dare not -- confirm they are debris from the plane," the agency's executive director, Anond Snidvongs, told AFP.

He said the information had been given to Malaysia.

The pictures were taken by Thailand's only earth observation satellite on Monday but needed several days to process, Anond added.

He said the objects were spotted about 200 kilometres away from an area where French satellite images earlier showed potential objects in the search for the Boeing 777 which vanished on March 8 with 239 people aboard.

Thailand faced criticism after announcing more than a week after the jet's disappearance that its radar had picked up an "unknown aircraft" minutes after flight MH370 last transmitted its location.

The Thai air force said it did not report the findings earlier as the plane was not considered a threat.

The Malaysia Airlines plane is presumed to have crashed in the Indian Ocean after mysteriously diverting from its Kuala Lumpur-Beijing path and apparently flying for hours in the opposite direction.

Thunderstorms and gale-force winds grounded the international air search for wreckage on Thursday.

Malaysia had said late Wednesday that images taken in recent days by a French satellite showed "122 potential objects" adrift in the vast area, but nothing has been recovered yet that would confirm the plane's fate.

Malaysia believes the plane was deliberately re-directed by someone on board, but nothing else is known.

- AFP/nd
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#70
No conspiracy theory here but a well-written, interesting article on Southern Indian Ocean.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/20...dian_ocean
A stock well bought is half sold - Ben Graham
Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value - Walter Schloss
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