Cash premiums fall for most estates

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#1
Dec 19, 2010
Cash premiums fall for most estates

Biggest drop in Bt Timah, Punggol and Central resale flat COVs; 20 towns see fall of more than 10%
By Daryl Chin and Jessica Cheam

Cash premiums demanded by sellers of resale flats are falling across most Housing Board towns since measures to cool the public housing market were introduced in August.

Twenty out of 26 Housing Board towns surveyed have seen cash-over-valuation (COVs) figures of resale flats fall by more than 10 per cent from the high levels seen in the third quarter this year.

Eight fell by 20 per cent or more, with one area - Bukit Timah - recording a huge fall of 32 per cent.

The figures are based on an analysis of data from three of the biggest property agencies - PropNex, ERA Asia-Pacific and the Dennis Wee Group (DWG) - by The Sunday Times.

The COV is the amount a buyer pays over and above the valuation of a Housing Board resale flat. It is payable only in cash.

Towns where the fall was sharpest included Punggol, Central and Marine Parade, which saw a more than 25 per cent drop in cash premiums paid.

The Sunday Times obtained a median COV figure for each town from each agency for last month. Median means half of the buyers paid a COV higher than the level and half paid an amount below that.

The average median COV figure for each area was then calculated based on the data from the three agencies and compared with the latest third-quarter statistics released by the Housing Board.

The data represents over 50 per cent of the market.

It reveals the performance of the Housing Board resale market at specific locations three months after the Government restricted ownership of Housing Board flats in an attempt to cool resale flat prices.

Prices of Housing Board flats hit a historic high in the third quarter, prompting many buyers - especially first-timers - to raise concerns that resale flats are being priced out of their reach, in part due to high COVs demanded by sellers.

Estates such as Queenstown and Bishan, and even those in suburban areas such as Punggol, recorded median COVs of between $35,000 and $45,000 in the third quarter, according to Housing Board figures.

Since then, COVs have started to come down. Earlier this month, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said that Singapore's overall median COV figure was $22,000 last month - a drop of $3,000 from October.

Industry analysts said the larger drop in COVs in some areas is due to a number of factors. PropNex spokesman Adam Tan said valuations for flats in Bukit Timah, Central, Marine Parade and Queenstown are already at extremely high levels.

Falling COV numbers in these areas may mean that a price ceiling has been reached and buyers are resisting paying beyond that level, said ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim. He added that because there are fewer transactions in these areas, the drop is 'no surprise'.

Both analysts said COVs in Punggol had fallen for a different reason - it is where the Housing Board has launched the bulk of new flats this year. This means that there are more choices for buyers there.

'For those who are eyeing Punggol and have the patience, they can go for new flats or executive condominiums.

'For example, you can pick up a three-bedroom unit at (executive condominium) Prive for about $720,000 and pay a 5 per cent booking fee of $36,000, which is less than the Housing Board's median COV for the third quarter for that area,' said Mr Lim.

The fall in COVs in some areas like Bishan and Kallang/Whampoa has been less pronounced, possibly due to their proximity to the city centre. The estates experienced a 13.3 per cent and 9.7 per cent drop respectively.

DWG senior group director Chris Koh said: 'Prices in these towns normally hold well because they are sought after.'

Another popular estate, Tampines, recorded a relatively small drop of about 8 per cent. Mr Koh said this can be attributed to the high demand for flats in the area: 'Tampines has always been a jewel of the east, with its business and shopping hub.'

Although almost all the towns registered a dip, COVs in Toa Payoh saw a surprising rise of 14.3 per cent.

Both DWG and Propnex said this could be an anomaly. Mr Koh said it may be because more large flats with particularly high COVs were sold in the area last month.

Despite the general dip in COVs, some first-timers The Sunday Times spoke to said they were still being priced out of the market.

Consultant Jerry Teo, 28, a Woodlands resident looking to buy a flat closer to town, said: 'Even though (COVs) are dropping slightly, the valuation is still high, so the total cost is still beyond my reach.'

Mr Colin Tan, research and consultancy director of property firm Chesterton Suntec International, said the drop in COVs may be more gradual than some had anticipated. This may be because of an upward pressure on resale flat prices due to the fact that there is more demand than supply.

The Housing Board is expected to release an estimate of resale flat prices for the fourth quarter on Jan 3.

Mr Nicholas Mak, of SLP International Property Consultants, said COV median forecasts for the fourth quarter this year were between $23,000 and $26,000.

darylc@sph.com.sg

jcheam@sph.com.sg


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#2
Heard over the FM radio today that HDB has just celeberated the 1,000,000th unit, that is lot and lot of supplies for Resale market in the future.
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#3
(19-12-2010, 06:17 PM)SLC81 Wrote: Heard over the FM radio today that HDB has just celeberated the 1,000,000th unit, that is lot and lot of supplies for Resale market in the future.

They should only celebrate when HDB flat prices become more affordable! Tongue
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#4
If HDB prices become affordable perhaps we have to beware there is unintended consequences as the current HDB policy of subsidising market pricing would start a downward trend of such. Can you imaging if suddenly resasle HDB falls by 10%.. the new flats would have to be priced 40k-50k below the exisiting supply wont it depressed the market further?
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#5
(25-12-2010, 10:16 AM)bullrunner Wrote: If HDB prices become affordable perhaps we have to beware there is unintended consequences as the current HDB policy of subsidising market pricing would start a downward trend of such. Can you imaging if suddenly resasle HDB falls by 10%.. the new flats would have to be priced 40k-50k below the exisiting supply wont it depressed the market further?

I don't know about you, but prices going down sounds like a good thing to me as this means resale HDB flats will become more affordable for first-time couples, and people won't need to be indebted for close to half their lives......
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#6
(25-12-2010, 10:16 AM)bullrunner Wrote: If HDB prices become affordable perhaps we have to beware there is unintended consequences as the current HDB policy of subsidising market pricing would start a downward trend of such. Can you imaging if suddenly resasle HDB falls by 10%.. the new flats would have to be priced 40k-50k below the exisiting supply wont it depressed the market further?

It depends on HDB. It can hold on the release of the flats.
Basically, unlike private developer, HDB can hold on to the flats indefinitely.
And unlike private developer, it can secure the release of land to build new flats anytime.

I think the last two years were a shock to them as they probably did not anticipate that their BTO scheme will fail so badly to contain the price appreciation.

Therefore, Lim Hng Kiang method is still the best to contain price Big Grin
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#7
(25-12-2010, 11:38 AM)yeokiwi Wrote: It depends on HDB. It can hold on the release of the flats.
Basically, unlike private developer, HDB can hold on to the flats indefinitely.
And unlike private developer, it can secure the release of land to build new flats anytime.

I think the last two years were a shock to them as they probably did not anticipate that their BTO scheme will fail so badly to contain the price appreciation.

Therefore, Lim Hng Kiang method is still the best to contain price Big Grin

What's Lim Hg Kiang's method? Huh
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#8
(25-12-2010, 05:09 PM)kichialo Wrote: What's Lim Hg Kiang's method? Huh

Overbuilding of HDB flats. During 1995 to 1999 when he was the Minister for National Development, the flats were build in advance in response to the demand. Some said that he built in anticipation of mass immigration of Hongkongers due to the return of Hong kong to china in 1997.

But, apparently, the demand did not follow up with the supply due to Asian crisis and economy downturns in 2000 to 2003. HDB had so much excess flats at hand that they only managed to clear them by 2006 to 2007.

Because of the bad experience, MBT "cleverly" adopted BTO from 2006 onwards.



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#9
Quote:Because of the bad experience, MBT "cleverly" adopted BTO from 2006 onwards.

Unfortunately, Built-to-order scheme is a risk-transfer scheme which transfers away inventory risk from HDB to Singaporeans. Singaporeans have to suffer higher housing prices due to housing shortage because HDB does not want to carry the excess inventory risk.

HDB underwent its first retrenchment exercise in 2003 because of losses from the overbuilding of flats. I think a prime but unspoken motivation for BTO is to prevent future retrenchments from ever happening to HDB staff again due to overbuilding.

Given that the civil service sets a high recruitment criteria (2nd upper honours and above), I think it is a wastage of talent not to throw challenges to their staff for the good of Singaporeans. Why allow them to take the easy way out to the detriment of Singaporeans?


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#10
I think BTO is a fair method but used wrongly by MBT. The HDB minister have forgotten that BTO is allowed to fail if the subscription or take up rate is poor. I believe that the mistake lies in the underestimation of the demand and the cost cutting or "lean management" KPIs that led to this scenario. Imagine if your appraisal is benchmarked with number of empty flats in the market...
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