When invest in stock market, why are people so hard up over dividends?

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#51
From http://turnkeyanalyst.com/2013/12/26/hig...rowth-huh/

High Payout Ratios predict Higher Earnings Growth?
by DAVID FOULKE in TURNKEY BRAINWAVE
Posted DEC 26 2013

Every quarter, boards across America wrestle with the complex question of dividend policy.

Perhaps the company has excess cash that should be paid out as a dividend? Or perhaps cash should be directed to high NPV projects? It’s a nuanced debate, which is why we were somewhat surprised to see a recent Slate article that reached a categorical conclusion: “Dividends are Evil.”

Wants to raise the dividend
The Slate article describes dividends as a “strictly inferior option to using corporate cash on a share buyback.” As the article points out, however, “In comparing buybacks with dividends, the only real disadvantage is that buybacks look unattractive when stock market prices are relatively high.”

This latter point (buybacks for high priced stocks are unattractive) is certainly true. Consider what happened to GE in the late 2000s. During 2007, GE repurchased approximately $12 billion in stock, when it traded in the $35-$40 per share range. Next, during the 2008 crisis, GE reissued $12 billion of stock at approximately $22 per share. That was pretty clearly a value-destroying round trip for GE shareholders.

Today, GE trades at a 4.4% EBITDA/EV yield, which strikes us as pretty expensive. Given the high price, and the black eye GE received on the 2007-08 equity round trip horror show discussed above, we don’t think it would be unreasonable for GE not to pursue a buyback at current prices.

The Slate article continues:

Quote:A CEO could, of course, simply admit that his company’s share price is high already and so the time has come for patience. But with executive compensation excessively linked to short-term stock price movements managers rarely have an incentive to call for patience.

The impatient move that would benefit the economy would be for a cash-rich firm with an already high share price to invest. Hire more people and do more stuff, upgrade the training of your existing workforce, reward your better employees with raises and bonuses so they don’t go elsewhere, cut prices to build customer loyalty. That’s how profits lead to rising incomes, and how rising incomes lead to demand for the stuff businesses sell.

It seems reasonable to infer that the author would agree a share repurchase by GE at current prices is probably a poor use of capital. We know that GE recently raised its dividend by 16%, and it also seems reasonable to infer that the author would think this too is a bad idea.

So what should GE do with that cash? The article suggests it would make sense to invest that capital, instead of paying it out in the form of dividends. The logic is that if GE simply invested more, that would result in higher earnings for the company and the best economic outcome overall (assuming GE has positive NPV projects). In a struggling economy, investment will drive a recovery. This seems reasonable.

So do lower dividend payouts tend to increase earnings growth, thus supporting the economy?

Quant heavyweight Cliff Asness has observed that in times of low payout ratios (thus low dividends), in the aggregate, market observers often predict that this implies higher earnings growth in the future. Conversely, in times when payout ratios are high, and capital is paid out instead of reinvested, earnings should grow slowly in subsequent years.

Again, this logic seems to make sense: if companies retain earnings and plow them back into promising projects, earnings growth should be higher in the future; conversely, if companies don’t see any growth opportunities, they will push cash back to shareholders and future earnings shouldn’t experience robust growth.

Stories are great, and all humans grave a coherent narrative, but is this really how the world works from an empirical standpoint?

One thing we like about Asness is that he is an empiricist. In a 2001 paper, “Does Dividend Policy Foretell Earnings Growth?” Robert Arnott and Asness weigh in with some evidence related to the question of how payout ratios affected subsequent earnings growth.

Arnott and Asness looked at historical payout ratios and earnings growth of stocks broadly representative of the market. Below is a scatterplot showing payout ratios and subsequent ten-year earnings growth from 1950-1991:

[Image: payoutratios1.png]

The evidence seems to indicate there is a positive relationship between payout ratio and future earnings growth. That is, higher dividend payout ratios seem to predict higher growth, while lower payout ratios predict lower growth – the opposite of what we expected.

They suggest a few hypotheses for why this might be true:

Since managers don’t like to cut dividends, if they are concerned about the sustainability of earnings in the future they would not offer a higher dividend today; a higher payout ratio is a signal that they think future prospects look poor.

When earnings are not paid out, cash is used to finance poor investments (malinvestment), leading to reduced earnings growth.
When managers hold cash, it may signal “empire building,” where managers try to increase their power, rather than benefit shareholders.
So are dividends evil?

Arnott and Assness’s analysis suggests that if a firm like GE has extra cash, there may be some reasonable arguments for why they should pay that cash out as dividends, rather than hold it or invest it in disastrous projects that could destroy value.

In a world where malinvestment and empire building are pervasive, dividends might provide a valuable signal about a firm’s shareholder policies.

Perhaps the question of whether dividends are evil may not be so clear cut as some believe.
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#52
(26-12-2013, 09:55 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: Dividend is probably the only direct indication of the management alignment of interest with minority shareholders.
There are quite a few companies in SGX that has low price-to-book ratio or/and even low PE that technically should be the targets of value investors.
But, they aren't simply because the value is there but the lack of dividend creates a distrust that the either the earning is dubious or the management is simply unwilling to share the earning.

I suppose there is a correlation or causal relationship between the dividend and management's attitude towards minority shareholders or even integrity.

Deep value Hong Fok - Salary high high, dividend low low.
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster
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#53
(28-12-2013, 03:04 AM)arthur Wrote: Dividends to me is just a part of a overall factors package I use to assess a prospective company.

I do have interest in evaluating how does the company management uses its equity to generate more returns to the shareholders, no doubt that increasing dividends are a sign of healthy business prospect. However, smaller companies esp, tech start ups tend to be unable to dish out dividends due to management arguments of need to divert all resources to capturing market shares and increasing competitive advantages.

Some companies manage to do so, eg. Microsoft in early years, while many others failed to (pull up the dot coms failures for remembrance).

Still, I don't buy into the argument "Look at the dividends" as it can cloud one's perspective especially younger investors that it is a end all factor to consider.

Lotsa factors are inclusive: ROE, Mgt capability & integrity, intrinsic value, companies abilities to capture market share (local and aboard), etc.

My 2 cents chip in.

I like your signature:
1. Circle of Competence
2. Margin of Safety
3. Intrinsic Value
4. Strong and sustained economic moat
5. Capable management with integrity

I am pretty good at #2 and #3. These are hard numbers that I could extract off the company's balance sheet.


I would like more practical details on how to analyze #1,#4 and #5. The idea makes sense, but Many practical questions and considerations come to my mind.

#1 Circle of Competence. How to tell that the company has competence? Where to look?
Look at their past years financial performance? That's practically easy because you can easily line up their time series P&L.
Look at the complexity of the projects they won? A bit tougher. I have no idea how to judge complexity.

#3 Strong Sustained economic moat. How practically to tell if the company indeed have economic moat? Patents come to my mind. Strong customer network is another. Now how do I check the company's patents? Or is that the right place to start in the first place?
How do I know that they indeed have strong customer network? I could go to their company and interview the sales person and ask if they have strong customer network, but that's impossible.

#5 Capable management with integrity
How to judge that they are capable? The only way I know is to look at their past years financial performance. Or read their profile. But I dont really trust profile written in the annual report because they are all nicely written.
How do I judge their integrity? Look at their criminal records? Look at the way they do business? Their dirty secrets are probably kept secrets from shareholders. As an outsider I dont think I have much access to these information.

I am asking into nuts and bolts because I would like to know the practical aspects.
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#54
(28-12-2013, 12:59 AM)mrEngineer Wrote: I got burnt recently with China Fishery thinking that I know of superior information by subscribing to fishing industry magazines etc. But only to realize that sticking to my core knowledge for any growth stock is much safer. Another example is Yongnam. Clear market leader, venturing overseas, almost clinched Myanmar airport which threw e market price off the hook. What happened in e end?

A lot of people are like that. Thanks for sharing your valuable lesson so that we can all learn from it.



(28-12-2013, 12:59 AM)mrEngineer Wrote: If u turn back e clock 5-10 years ago, will u dare to invest in Super Group, Q&M dental, Nam Cheong and Osim? I don't think I will dare to do so..

Therefore, I rather wait for margin of safety where I think market is mispricing and happy with dividends if any that come along. The dividends also act as a indicator that pricing should not collapses as long as dividend is sustainable by cash flow and debt cost. For e.g. I invested recently in CSE global before e sale announcement of UK biz and divested after I think it's overvalued. Another e.g. but not so adequate will be Wilmar.
I guess that's how I would do it too.
Safety of margin.
Dividend as an indicator
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#55
For 5)

U can look at 3 things.

1) allocation of capital- ROE, ROIC, ROA supported by qualitative backing of operational numbers, eg. Did one-off sale of assets or steep increase of debt skew the numbers?

2) dividends records( you got a thesis load of data Liao) vs executive pay including options

3) acquisition records, did their buys pent out the way they wanted.

4) candid assessment of industry and company outlook.

Acknowledgment - most of what I said can be found in book "essays of Buffett", in actual maneuvering, I found:

A lot of companies with irregular debt patterns ( increasing then decreasing then. Increasing ) so dun find ROE very useful. Also how high is high? I have not found one constantly in the thereabouts of 20s but not already fairly priced in.

As for acquisition records, most companies have few in the last decade, u wouldn't want one with a shopping spree disorder anyway ( unless there is a super sale), so is the 2-3 buys fair judgement of competency? If it is, SIA has a value destroying records.

So, most look at 3) a dividend that is consistent and sustainable or increasing FCF. Problem again is price, or u will to take more risk through structures like reits or trusts.
MHO
life goes in cycles, predictable yet uncontrollable; just like the markets, but markets give you a second chance
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#56
(28-12-2013, 12:59 AM)mrEngineer Wrote:
(27-12-2013, 07:55 PM)wahkao Wrote:
(27-12-2013, 09:34 AM)mrEngineer Wrote: I will only invest in these companies if I am exactly aware of its growth potential
how do you judge its growth potential? What do you see?

You see the news? Which news source? How do you analyze these news source?

You see their industry group? What indicators do you use?

You see their financial reports? How to see their financials to pin point them as a growth company?

A honest answer after 5 years of investing experience in SGX: I don't know.

IMO, there is no simple formula to growth investing. Many growth stocks would have P/E more than 10 and that metric already start to stir my nervous stomach. I am leaning towards industry competence where u have strong knowledge of a particular industry and you have access to private information like some fund managers or simple to understand business. For e.g. for former, if u work in a bank middle or back office and you know clearly about silver lake. For e.g., for latter, if u work in a private equity fund and invest into ARA in early days.

I got burnt recently with China Fishery thinking that I know of superior information by subscribing to fishing industry magazines etc. But only to realize that sticking to my core knowledge for any growth stock is much safer. Another example is Yongnam. Clear market leader, venturing overseas, almost clinched Myanmar airport which threw e market price off the hook. What happened in e end?

If u turn back e clock 5-10 years ago, will u dare to invest in Super Group, Q&M dental, Nam Cheong and Osim? I don't think I will dare to do so..

Therefore, I rather wait for margin of safety where I think market is mispricing and happy with dividends if any that come along. The dividends also act as a indicator that pricing should not collapses as long as dividend is sustainable by cash flow and debt cost. For e.g. I invested recently in CSE global before e sale announcement of UK biz and divested after I think it's overvalued. Another e.g. but not so adequate will be Wilmar.

Fully agree with you MrEngineer.
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#57
(27-12-2013, 07:57 PM)wahkao Wrote: i guess dividend + buy backs are good screens, but not practical?

What I meant was that quantitative tools like googlefinance allows you to select stocks based on fixed parameters (eg. dividend yield of 3% or payout ratio of 25%). However, I am not aware of any readily available tool or appropriate financial parameter to filter out companies that undertakes sharebuyback. In any case, sharebuyback as capital management tool is probably not very relevant in Singapore market. I think they are mostly used to buy treasury shares to meet executive compensation plans.

Also need to qualify my earlier comment that sharebuyback is a better tool for capital management. Below posting by "rogerwilco" explains the exception.

(28-12-2013, 10:07 AM)rogerwilco Wrote: The Slate article describes dividends as a “strictly inferior option to using corporate cash on a share buyback.” As the article points out, however, “In comparing buybacks with dividends, the only real disadvantage is that buybacks look unattractive when stock market prices are relatively high.”

Personally, I think Warren Buffett's 2012 letter pages 19-21 gave a good overview on issues relating to dividends.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2012ltr.pdf
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#58
safe and cheap for me,

if they give some dividends then all the better Big Grin
Virtual currencies are worth virtually nothing.
http://thebluefund.blogspot.com
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#59
(28-12-2013, 10:07 AM)rogerwilco Wrote: What I meant was that quantitative tools like googlefinance allows you to select stocks based on fixed parameters (eg. dividend yield of 3% or payout ratio of 25%)

Sorry, google finance's fundamental data cannot be trusted
I doubt its even updated. They did not even define what kind of PE they are showing. Forward PE? Historical PE? Rolling PE?
Here's google finance PE ratios VS the correct PE ratio
[Image: A9P4zOi.png]
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#60
WhaKor! PE 1!!!


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