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QAF
08-12-2019, 06:43 PM.
Post: #141
RE: QAF
(29-11-2019, 09:48 PM)Mushy Wrote: Everyday I am updating myself on the situation in Australia fight against ASF (or fight against ASF entering their country). Feeling like its a matter of time.
Btw, I am heavily invested in QAF. Its now about 34% of my stocks portfolio. I had just revealed that AGT is 35% of my portfolio. 2 shares making up 69% of portfolio...

what's AGT?

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17-12-2019, 10:14 PM.
Post: #142
RE: QAF
(08-12-2019, 06:43 PM)mkzhou88 Wrote:
(29-11-2019, 09:48 PM)Mushy Wrote: Everyday I am updating myself on the situation in Australia fight against ASF (or fight against ASF entering their country). Feeling like its a matter of time.
Btw, I am heavily invested in QAF. Its now about 34% of my stocks portfolio. I had just revealed that AGT is 35% of my portfolio. 2 shares making up 69% of portfolio...

what's AGT?

Accordia Trust?

Bought more below .800. Pray4good news this 2019!! Big Grin

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20-12-2019, 10:10 AM.
Post: #143
RE: QAF
The knife cuts both ways. I feel Rivalea with better established biosecurity might be able to protect its pigs better compared to the thousand small pig farmers. 

Ref: https://www.vikingfoodsolutions.com.au/h...upply-pork
"The Australian pork industry released its report into the economic impact of African swine fever if it ever crossed our borders and infected our pigs. It makes harrowing reading. A major outbreak at several locations could cost up to $2.03bn, according to the report Economic Analysis of African Swine Fever Incursion into Australia.

Exports of Australian pork would shut down and domestic sales of pork would drop by 25 per cent in the first six weeks. Destroying all infected pigs would be the only way to eradicate the disease. Even in a scenario limiting the infection to one state, such as Victoria, it would result in 23,000 pigs destroyed, and one to three years before the industry was restored to normal."


Why does Australia not export pork to mainland china? It seems the Aus industry and authority are keen, China market is interested but China authority is not. And this has been for at least past few years even before ASF hit China. Australia is not a major exporter of pork due to their noncompetitiveness and they are mainly for domestic consumption. The recent runaway prices, shortage and perception of safety in China might have brought about better interest in Aus pork but so far there has not been any development. Totally no news.


"Australia does not have any pork plants approved for export to China and authorities have been waiting over two years to have 16 additional meat processing plants (including pork facilities) accredited by Chinese authorities."
Ref: https://www.grainbrokers.com.au/category...alia-news/

China's market for Australian pork




Source: https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
[Image: Chart_19_5.png]
On the Aus domestic side, pork prices has steadily and continously creep up due to happenings elsewhere. The huge damper is the high feed cost due to the bad weather, though it seems to have plateaued in 2019 (see feed crops prices in above link). QAF mgmt seems more optimistic going forward (as indicated in the recent Q3 report) compared to the australian authority (above website).

QAF seems eager to get rid of the pri production business. They had tried more than once in the past. IPO failed (i think, mostly due to not getting it off before the cycle turned). Now they have engaged Rabobank (a global specialist in agri business M&A) to try to sell it off. At the first sign of cycle upturn.
So far I have not seen or heard any news from this. Really nothing.

Btw, they will be revaluing their biological assets in the year end report. By my estimates, should be around 10% increase to the current $50M or so value. Thats a slight increase of 2 cent per share to NAV.

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04-01-2020, 08:17 AM.
Post: #144
RE: QAF
I have been monitoring this company with interest as well.

My current focus is not on the incursion of ASF into Australia, but rather more towards the wild bushfires. The fires are prevalent on the east coast and a cursory overlapping of fires spots seem to overlap the area Rivalea seem to be in on google maps with that provided by websites. Of course the maps are representing a very large area and does not mean that Rivalea is implicated. Even if they were, I am sure they are insured properly and would make an announcement if it happened?

What’s interesting is the expected reaction of feed price and pork price with the widespread fire. Probably several dominoes effect with regards to the wildfire but in times of disaster I would think both feed and pork price should go up?
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04-01-2020, 02:07 PM.
Post: #145
RE: QAF
(04-01-2020, 08:17 AM)Squirrel Wrote: I have been monitoring this company with interest as well.

My current focus is not on the incursion of ASF into Australia, but rather more towards the wild bushfires. The fires are prevalent on the east coast and a cursory overlapping of fires spots seem to overlap the area Rivalea seem to be in on google maps with that provided by websites. Of course the maps are representing a very large area and does not mean that Rivalea is implicated. Even if they were, I am sure they are insured properly and would make an announcement if it happened?

What’s interesting is the expected reaction of feed price and pork price with the widespread fire. Probably several dominoes effect with regards to the wildfire but in times of disaster I would think both feed and pork price should go up?

pork price is dependent of demand from China/overseas. Feed price will definitely be going up with drought expected this year and fires impacting some grain farms.
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04-01-2020, 02:32 PM.
Post: #146
RE: QAF
(04-01-2020, 02:07 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:
(04-01-2020, 08:17 AM)Squirrel Wrote: I have been monitoring this company with interest as well.

My current focus is not on the incursion of ASF into Australia, but rather more towards the wild bushfires. The fires are prevalent on the east coast and a cursory overlapping of fires spots seem to overlap the area Rivalea seem to be in on google maps with that provided by websites. Of course the maps are representing a very large area and does not mean that Rivalea is implicated. Even if they were, I am sure they are insured properly and would make an announcement if it happened?

What’s interesting is the expected reaction of feed price and pork price with the widespread fire. Probably several dominoes effect with regards to the wildfire but in times of disaster I would think both feed and pork price should go up?

pork price is dependent of demand from China/overseas. Feed price will definitely be going up with drought expected this year and fires impacting some grain farms.

I believe there was mention that pork in Australia is mainly to satisfy domestic demand plus export to places in south east Asia. They don’t export to China. But of course a rising tide raises all boats. China demand is probably majority of global demand. CNY is coming. Only way is up I suppose.
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07-01-2020, 07:56 PM.
Post: #147
RE: QAF
QAF has issued an announcement regarding the bush fires

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Announcem...eID=592652

Seems like properly insured.
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10-01-2020, 05:53 AM.
Post: #148
RE: QAF Limited
(21-12-2010, 01:13 AM)Jon-san Wrote: To be honest, I know of more people who like Sunshine bread & Bon Jour now then Gardenia. The only thing I like from Gardenia is their Banana & Walnut Bread. Then again, if any of the other brands launch something similar, I'm quite open to switching.

Interesting! So can I say consumers tend to switch on bread more than coffee? Big Grin

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10-01-2020, 08:28 AM.
Post: #149
RE: QAF Limited
(10-01-2020, 05:53 AM)dydx Wrote:
(21-12-2010, 01:13 AM)Jon-san Wrote: To be honest, I know of more people who like Sunshine bread & Bon Jour now then Gardenia. The only thing I like from Gardenia is their Banana & Walnut Bread. Then again, if any of the other brands launch something similar, I'm quite open to switching.

Interesting! So can I say consumers tend to switch on bread more than coffee? Big Grin

May or may not
Before knowing QAF, I had tried NTUC's own brand, sunshine, gardenia and bon jour. Bon jour is the best for me.

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10-01-2020, 09:51 AM.
Post: #150
RE: QAF Limited
(10-01-2020, 08:28 AM)grandslam Wrote:
(10-01-2020, 05:53 AM)dydx Wrote:
(21-12-2010, 01:13 AM)Jon-san Wrote: To be honest, I know of more people who like Sunshine bread & Bon Jour now then Gardenia. The only thing I like from Gardenia is their Banana & Walnut Bread. Then again, if any of the other brands launch something similar, I'm quite open to switching.

Interesting! So can I say consumers tend to switch on bread more than coffee? Big Grin

May or may not
Before knowing QAF, I had tried NTUC's own brand, sunshine, gardenia and bon jour. Bon jour is the best for me.
Bonjour is from QAF too.  Big Grin

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