A journey of thousand miles begins with a single step 千里之行,始于足下。

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Rainbow 
Good morning valuebuddies.
As digital currency getting hotter everyday, especially when a few local financial bloggers blogged about their successful "investment" journey into Crypto, many valuebuddies would like to dip their toe in to test the water too.

c.f.
a) https://www.drwealth.com/meet-kk-crypto/
Dr Wealth - meet KK - a financial blogger who invested $200k in crypto
8 Feb 2021 — Cryptocurrencies are a lot more accepted today. That said, most investors do not treat it as a core asset in their portfolio.


b) http://treeofprosperity.blogspot.com/202...mment-form
30 Dec 2021 - The rest of my yielding farming strategies using stablecoins, however, are doing fine and I was able to build a fairly steady portfolio that yields about 14% a year. And while I actually do not think this is sustainable over the long term, if stable strategies above 14% can be shown to work in the cryptocurrency world, it raises some issues for policymakers and philosophers to think about.


With MAS guideline issued on 17 Jan 2022, with immediate compliance, what does it means to current and future crypto investors?
https://www.mas.gov.sg/-/media/MAS-Media...PS-G02.pdf

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Rainbow 
Good morning valuebuddies,
Wishing everyone a peaceful and prosperous CNY!

Omicron continue to dominate the news and daily inflection had reached 10,000 and hovering there. What would happen to the number next week?

Due to Omicron, VTL flight ticket sales was suspended on 23 Dec 2021. On 21 Jan 2022, VTL flight ticket sales resumed with a cut of 50% quota.

SQ had recalled back more than 80% of it's service personnel, although it's passenger capacity is expected to be less than 50% pre-covid levels.

Despite recent hedging at much lower fuel price, SQ position remains conservative. It's very clear that SQ would like to profit from their +ve hedging position but does not wish to be called speculative any more.  Would this be a better or worst, in term of SQ profits? 

In any case, with the resumption of VTL flight, time to fly again, anyone?



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Rainbow 
Good morning valuebuddies.
This morning, I woke up by the chirping birds in the wood with my heart filled of gratitude.

It's a miracle that we are here to do what we wanted to do.  The thought of so many valuebuddies, in all these years, helping me in my investment journey, is always kept vividly in my heart.

With an expectation of C19 won't be the last endemic, and increasing political tensions, (not saying we are getting older and wiser each day), I sincerely wish all our valuebuddies a peaceful and prosperous CNY.

Take care and do get up and do some exercise too.

Gratitude.
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Watch: Journey of the Heart



Do you like to learn how to fish or you prefers to be serve a fish on the table?

The answer is pretty clean. 

For me, having the fish done up beautifully and deliciously would be great but what about the 2nd meal?

So, in pursuit of the easy way aka served a fish, I started off by looking at fellow valuebuddies portfolio.  Especially those who had selflessly shared their holdings and the rationale of holding them.

Most of the time, I would says that it's just passive reading because as much as I like their ideas (aka fish served at the table), I could not find the connection with my own background and expertise... something like what our greatest valuebuddies WB says: "Area of competence".  

My experience of vetting thru so many portfolio and pull the trigger (may be less than 5 times), does not have a happy ending.  The result of following the guru's pick was either loss money, break even or if making some profit - were less than satisfactory - except one counter - Micro Mechanics Holdings.

At this moment, MMH is easily more than 35% of my investment and it's not because I kept buying but because it's share price kept increasing due to the increasing dividend.

The guru whom I was following for MMH is one of our valuebuddies: Donmihaihai (click to read)

Thank you Don and I had benefited a lot from your kind sharing and I can tell you that a lot of people saying that learning to fish is better than served with a fish.  That's true all the time because they did not have the experience that I had.  Your kind sharing had make my life easier and my investment journey a far more enjoyable than I could expect when I begin my first step.

Thank you very much and wishing you and your family a healthy and happy CNY.
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Rainbow 
Good morning, valuebuddies.
Waking up to another bright sunshine day with birds chirping happily in the woods.  Wish everyone a great day ahead.

Missing features, delayed shipments and high COE prices pushing car buyers to resale market - by Navene Elangovan & Taufiq Zalizan 27 Mar 2022

- Some car models are arriving in Singapore with missing parts such as touch screens and communication systems due to a supply crunch in the seminconductor industry

- Delays in receiving these cars, as well as high COE prices, have resulted in some of their customers turning to second- hand models, said car dealers

- Some car buyers said they will purchase a fully equipped second-hand vehicle over a new car with missing features

It was "common" knowledge" that car manufactures will divert available parts to models that make the most money.  For example, they will divert available semiconductor parts to "high profit margin, low volume" cars such as the Mercedes-Benz S-Class model over "high volume, low profit margin cars" such as the Mercedes-Benz C-Class model.

COE prices for cars went up at the end of the latest bidding exercise.  Premiums for small cars closed at S$71,556 while those for larger cars closed at S$98,889.

Customers were choosing resale over new cars as the former afforded more price certainty.  With resale cars, customers are certain of their car prices as these are based on prevailing COE prices.

In the case of new cars, however, the COE prices could go up by the time the shipment arrives in Singapore.



[Image: 20220321_reuters_semiconductor.jpg?itok=0IINBcAG]
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/ex...re-1850276

LONG-TERM BENEFITS FOR SINGAPORE
Despite the short-term woes for consumers here, it is worthy to note that Singapore has in recent years attracted investment to augment its capabilities in the semiconductors industry.

For example, GlobalFoundries, a major chip maker, in June 2021 announced an investment of over US$4 billion (S$5.4 billion) to ramp up its manufacturing capacity here.

In July 2021, Minister of State for Trade and Industry Alvin Tan during a Singapore Semiconductor Industry Association event highlighted that the country accounts for 5 per cent of global wafer fabrication capacity and 19 per cent of the global semiconductor equipment market share.

This puts Singapore in good stead to ride on the industry’s growth, which Mr Agarwal of KPMG said is set to continue despite current challenges.

“The industry delivered an all-time high revenue of US$556 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach US$600 billion in 2022... growth of 10 to 15 per cent is expected in the coming decade,” he said.




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Rainbow 
COE@99,999


With the record high COE, I think most car owner reaching 10 years would consider renewing their COE instead of changing car.  Of course, alternatively is to opt for public transport (or car sharing) instead of owning a car.  The question is whether you want to or not?



There are a lot of annual reports and with it, announcement of good results and new corporate directions.

Some notable one are:
A) APO@17 with dividend 1cts (about 6%)
"Given the challenging macro-economic environment, namely confrontational politics between two of the largest economies of the world, regional geopolitical turmoil, as well as continual coronavirus strain mutations and fallouts, the outlook for 2022 remains murky and highly uncertain. Rising international raw material prices and severe manpower shortage in Singapore will also directly impact the Group’s manufacturing activities. 
In view of these, our corporate strategy for the next few years will be to focus on profitability through strengthening our existing market bases and selectively foray into niche markets. With funds accumulated over the years, we are in a strong position to continually seek new business opportunities and pursue our longterm development policy. The planning and executive oversight of the business policy and strategy of the Group is part of my responsibilities as Group Executive Chairman. "

What I like about AP Oil is the increasing dividend. This is what I observed. 
8 out of past 10 years (excluding this year), the dividend was 0.5cents.
Twice, the dividend was 0.75 cents.
Out of the blue, this year dividend was 1 cents.

Moving forward, we should expect 0.5cents (about 3% dividend yield), or 0.75cents (about 4.5%) or 1cents (about 6%).

In theory, there is 7 in 10 chance that we get 3% yield, 3 in 10 chance to get 4.5% yield and unlikely to be repeated 6% yield.  This year 6% is more like an experimental error.

However, if I look at the dividend trends, then the picture would change slightly:
2012 - 3%
2013 - 3%
2014 - 3%
2015 - 3%
2016 - 3%
2017 - 4.5%
2018 - 3%
2019 - 3%
2020 - 4.5%
2021 - 3%
Current Year Dividend - 6%

I side track a little bit to share my thinking process of a value trap and what I meant to say is APO looks like a value trap but seems not to.

A value trap has a characteristics that the company is cash rich but with a declining business which some how sucking out cash little by little every year aka it's value keep dropping and dropping.

APO looks like a value trap yet to be proven - that's how I see it now.
<vested>

B) HLS@30 Dividend 1.25cents (about 4%)
"Singapore’s external demand outlook has moderated in light of the global surge in COVID-19 cases, persistent supply chain constraints and stubborn inflationary pressures against the backdrop of elevated geopolitical tensions. Barring fresh disruptions, the Ministry of Trade and Industry has maintained Singapore’s economic growth forecast at 3.0% to 5.0%, albeit with uneven recovery across various sectors. The Group will continue to be vigilant and remain selective as we explore business opportunities in the property segment to diversify and bolster our project development credentials."

I wanted to start by saying HLS is a GEM.  I quite like HLS and I thought why nobody (valuebuddies) take notice of HLS?  

Any valuebuddies worth their salt will read and understand that construction sector is a growing area in Singapore. A lot of financial analyst had already covered and talking extensively on those construction counters listed in SGX and there is no need for further introduction.  However, if you look into those analyst report, HLS is missing - and that prompted me to ask the question in previous paragraph.  Tongue

When I says HLS is a GEM, I mean it. Comparing to other (property) construction company, it operates in a territory that no others operate (the closest competitor was OKP and you know what happen to OKP, if not read up). The Maxwell MRT was commissioned in Oct 2021 and more will come. It's TuasSouth strategy was very surprise to me - especially it seems to be a successful one, so far.  I am quite sure that this is a present surprise to the management too and I hope this +ve results could give them a chance to take a new look at their strategy on property development.  

What I meant to says is, take a look at Ho Bee (or similar property developer).  Ho Bee had spend a long time to transform from a property builder to property owner/operator.  The benefits of the transformation is getting clearer every year.  I view Mr Chua as the top brain in Singapore and I'm glad that his results tells.  I'm not vested in Ho Bee as I had missed the boat.  I wish everyone who had vested best luck as Ho Bee is truly an amazing catch.

C) SLA@32 
"I am also especially proud of adding our first customer in the pure and challenging digital banking space as an existing Europe, the Middle East and Africa (“EMEA”) customer launched their digital bank in FY2021 and chose our solution to power it.
The Group’s investment in 37.1 million shares (an 8.30% ownership stake) of Global InfoTech Co. Ltd. (“GIT”) is valued at RM288 million as at 30 June 2021 and has performed commendably over the volatile period. We remain bullish on the long-term growth and prospects of the IT market in China. We believe there is further potential and we remain committed to both existing and potential future investments as China continues its quest for global leadership in technology."

SLA is a growth stock. Unfortunately (or fortunately for those would be investor), it's growth story was tinted with a short seller report few years ago.  In additional, a lot of it's customers is holding back on purchase of big ticket items due to C19 and uncertainty.  What is true is Fintech and Digitalisation is definitely the right way to move forward and without these innovations, the bank will wither - irregardless of how glory was it past.

The only question is when these banks transform, would they engage some new innovative partners or SLA - someone who knows their business, culture and minefields to avoid?  Cool




There are so many things to learn and I really appreciate the chances that's given and again - I wish every valuebuddies a meaningful and happy investment journey too.

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Rainbow 
Good morning valuebuddies.
Wish everyone a happy Good Friday ahead. Smile

Enjoy OST Wind Flower:
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Rainbow 
Good news, valuebuddies, 
https://www.mom.gov.sg/covid-19/requirem...t-measures

Doscon to be lower to "yellow" on 26 Apr 2022.
With the lower rating, almost all safe management measures is off - including taking out your mask in the office (with exception of customer-facing situation).

It's had been more than 2 years, since Feb 2022, we had gone thru a long and it feels like a life time.

Let's take a good breather. The pandemic is not over... this is a step down and not dismantle. Great job - everyone for holding up.  Do take sometime to chill.  Wink

Enjoy:


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Rainbow 
Good morning everyone.
Again waking up to a bright sunny day with the birds chirping happily in the wood.

Wishing everyone a happy Vesak Day and a super long weekend.




[Image: 7cd6e250-bd55-11ec-affd-38b74b56061e]
Cabinet reshuffling...
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/lee-hsien-loon...W6U3eA97ZS

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Rainbow 
Good morning valuebuddies,
Waking up to bright sunshine with birds chirping in the wood. Thank you.

A few offers for SGX companies are going on and I wonder whether this marked the bottom of STI?



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