A journey of thousand miles begins with a single step 千里之行,始于足下。

Poll: It's never too late to begin....
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Just speaking my mind on YZJFH.

The buying back is a great - I love it.

I had my bullet but it's not loaded in the gun at all.  My bullet is just there.

Like what valuebuddy mentioned, my understanding is YZJFH won't be able to keep supporting at current price (or somewhere near current price).

If it did managed to hold the price, then my bullet would be use in somewhere else. Not a issue at all.

However, in the scenario that YZJFH keep buying and the price keep dropping, then my bullet would be loaded.

Or, when YZJFH exhausted its USD200m and the price keep dropping, then that would be the exact moment that I fire my first shot (roughly).

The best scenario (for me) would be YZJFH had NOT exhausted its USD200m and it STOPPED it's buyback.  Tongue 

For me, investing is just a game of possibilities.  Finding a great company is rather easy for any valuebuddies worth their salt.  However, being able to buy at the right price would need to be very lucky.

Wish me luck.  Big Grin 

[Image: image_0a67ba08a4.png] 

speaking of Timing the market and in particular, catching a falling knife, 
Luck is definitely the most important CSF.

I had a story to share.

Valuebuddies still remember BAL? 
[Image: cmb-john-soh-stocks.png]
Credit: https://sgx.i3investor.com/blogs/ceomorn...nipula.jsp
I was running a business and get paid in RM and USD.  Instead of opening a SME bank account, I make use of my stock brokers to change the foreign currency into SGD.  Valuebuddies might recalled that at one point in time, Stock brokers offered the best currency exchange.  Big Grin
At that same point in time, BAL was charging above PE of 100x.
Everyone was sucked into the frenzy - a lot of valuebuddies too.

On the faithful day, SGX halted the trading of BAL.

That was a Friday.

However, during the same weekend, SGX released a "Limited" Trading on BAL.  

The SGX announcement caught my attentions for 2 reasons:
1. SGX seldom make announcement over weekend. This new release must caught a lot of trader/investor by surprise (because nobody expect any announcement with serious impact to be made over the weekend) which included me too.  But, I was curious to find out more and do some digging.

2. SGX announcement of "Limited" Trading was strange.  In the first place, trading was suspended on Friday and now with the announcement, trading is resumed but with some conditions.  What sort of conditions would be? The strange conditions really pricked my curiosity and I sense that there might be an opportunity.

Monday, when BAL stock resume with "Limited" trading, the scrips really fall like falling knives - no joke.

I tried to plan an order online and there was an error message - asking me to call my broker.

I called my broker immediately and still trying to key in order thru internet.  

After a while, my broker answered my call and explained the reason why I could not buy BAL.  Selling is no problem. To buy, you'll need to have cash inside your trading account.

Obviously, at that time, most of the people do not have any $$$ inside their trading account because when you sell a share, the $$$ automatically credit into your bank account.

Immediately, I told my broker that I had $$$ stashed inside my trading account which he seems to be dis-believed.  

By that time, the BAL dropped to 9cents and I scooped up everything I could get.

That was still early 9+am.  

One hour later, the stock re-bounced to 25cents and I just unload them.  Tongue

Very very lucky.

When talking about BAL, a lot of valuebuddies were caught and burnt so hard that they swear not to buy any of the penny stocks any more.  Do you remember?

Another incident was Y2K, dotcom crash.  Same thing, I catch the falling knife (citibank) at USD2 to USD2.5 and sold out within a few days with a small profit.

Mr Oei too make the same killing and he donated all the winning to a charity immediately - Respect.

Timing the market is part and parcel of human instinct.
Without luck, it won't works.

with the market volatility coming hard, plus the expectation of recession coming - no wonder our dear valuebuddy is asking questions regarding time-in-the-market vs timing-the-market.

What is important to me is must have a pot of ready $$$ to pick up the stocks when the chiku is riped - otherwise - it would be another long long wait.

Enjoy: Firefly
I'd like to make myself believe that planet Earth turns slowly
It's hard to say that I'd rather stay awake when I'm asleep
'Cause everything is never as it seems (when I fall asleep)


Good morning valuebuddies.
There are definitely a lot of liquidity in the market.
Being risk adverse, lots of valuebuddies is parking their hard earn $$$ in FD instead of into equity.

With the volatility, I choose to buy slowing but I guess most valuebuddies prefers to take a safer bet.

With so interest rate going up and SSG, TBill burst beyond 3%, there are good reason to investigate SSG and TBILL instead of FD.

For those with lots of CPF-OA, take note too that TBILL is also available. Typically cost would be $2 transaction fee (one time) and then $2/Qtr.  TO buy/subscribe, you'll need to open a CPF Investment Account and go to the Bank personally.

For those using cash, you still need to open a CDP Account and the buying could be thru the portal/ATM.
[Image: Applying-for-6-Month-Treasury-Bill-11-1080x682.png.webp]

The more I think about op questions on Time in the market vs Timing the market, the more put me into thinking.

Watch this:

Nobody knows whether STI will drop back to 2600.

The question would actually be: what will you do? when STI dropped to 2600.

Good morning valuebuddies.
What I did was sold some stocks about 6 months expense.

What is clear is the volatility remains unchanged.

Happy 50th Birthday Mr 1M65.
Enjoy the rebound - if these type of bad news could not crash the market  Big Grin

Time in the market vs Timing in the market...
Sooner or later, we are going to ask the question.... shall we sell and keep some cash... so that when the market dropped further, we could pick up our cheap (cheaper) favorite stocks.

Will you?

Take care and have a nice weekend.

Good morning valuebuddies,
Waking up to another cool morning and I wish everyone a relax and cozy weekend.  Smile

Prompted by OP's post on "Time in the Market" vs "Timing the Market", after one day of thinking, I decided to sell some shares - just enough for Six months expenses.

The decision was made simply because I had been reading OP's post regularly.  Initially, I treated his post as just another academic challenges and didn't give it much thought.  After more posts from the rest of valuebuddies (primarily giving model answers), I sensed that something is not correct.  If these model answers could be given by valuebuddies, then why THIS OP asked?

"Time in the Market" is what I had been doing.  It had served me well and so far so good.  I could had stopped buying my favourite stock with increasing MOS or I could continue to buy.

OR, I could sell some and buy back later.  Big Grin

Decision was made and looking at the last few days STI performance, 2600 would be a possibility.  Cool

Question is not so much whether STI will drop to 2600.
Question is what will you do when STI dropped to 2600.


Happy Deepavali and wishing all valuebuddies a peaceful long weekend.
[Image: little_india_on_29_oct_2021_13.jpg?itok=F7nT9V9J]

After OP raised the question on "Time in the Market" vs "Timing the Market", I'm only able to sell 6 months expense worth of stocks.  Subsequently, the stock market dropped so much/fast that I felt that the selling opportunity had closed - at least from my stock portfolio perspective - the prices beginning dropping like flies.

I am very grateful and glad that I made the move.
More important, I'm very happy that OP raised the questions and prompted me to think and take swift action.

At this moment, STI is below 3000 and likely stay below 3000 for a long time.

The question is not whether STI could dropped to 2600.
The question is what you will do when STI dropped to 2600.


Good morning valuebuddies.
Waking up to another cooling morning, I wish our valuebuddies another clam weekend.

With some spare time, do take a moment to review and derive your next action plan - to buy, to sell or do nothing.

For my case, do nothing is not an answer.  Collecting more undervalue shares would be my plan.  Granted - I would be buying slowly but surely.

Wish me luck.

Oh, by the way, selling?
Watch Ackman:


Happy Deepavali
[Image: IMG_8558.jpg?img=2893]
Good morning valuebuddies.
Waking up to another cool morning and I couldn't help myself from feeling so much blessed by everyone here.

Gratitude and wish everyone a happy and happening Deepavali.

[Image: Deepavali.jpg?ezimgfmt=ng%3Awebp%2Fngcb3...2Frscb30-1]

I was reading "Always Have Enough Money" by Tan Ooi Boon and he asked which of the three investment is the best you could made?
1) A stock that has potential of becoming very valuable in the future
2) A property in a distressed sales is that is under-valued by a huge %
3) An invitation to a totally new venture that can produce profits that are possibly 10x of your initial sum?

The answer is rather un-expected but understandable.


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