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Teh Hooi Leng calls it a day (Aggregate Asset Management)
05-07-2019, 09:30 PM.
Post: #151
RE: Teh Hooi Leng calls it a day (Aggregate Asset Management)
(03-07-2019, 09:48 PM)dreamybear Wrote: In the Business Times article(link below), Mr Kong says "In the last three years, we could find stocks that paid 7 per cent dividends, with a net book value of S$1, a share price of 40 cents and PE in single digit. Such stocks give us big returns and little downside.
Reference : https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/magazin...g-on-value

As a layman, I think they have done well. Smile  I am not vested(I am not an accredited investor) But I am dreaming of the day I can find such stocks with criteria defined by Aggregate !   Tongue

I think there will definitely be more lower-priced stocks found during market corrections. Maybe they got lucky and bought lots of good and cheap stocks in 2014 and 2015. During periods of market peace such as now, bargains will be few, or none.

Anyway, I think if an investor can meet the following conditions, his/her probability of success will be quite high.

1. Willing to accept a moderate level of return (maybe 8-9% p.a.) 
2. Able to not trade their stocks at least for 3 years 
3. Have sufficient ability to identify stocks that are able to provide stable & recurring dividends
4. Willing to diversify widely 
5. Possess cashflow to purchase more stocks during market corrections

I believe ghchua is one such person to have a very diversified portfolio of okay-quality stocks that pay regular dividends. Though ghchua's returns are not published, I believe they are close to a long-term average of 8-9% p.a..

Everyone can get returns like AAM or Inclusif. But because not everyone is willing (or able) to meet the conditions stated above, most get average results.

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06-07-2019, 09:45 AM.
Post: #152
RE: Teh Hooi Leng calls it a day (Aggregate Asset Management)
(04-07-2019, 09:47 AM)opmi Wrote: Focusing on value
Performance fee structure aligns with investor interests, says Aggregate Asset Management
TUE, DEC 05, 2017 - 5:50 AM

In the Business Times article(link below), Mr Kong says "In the last three years, we could find stocks that paid 7 per cent dividends, with a net book value of S$1, a share price of 40 cents and PE in single digit. Such stocks give us big returns and little downside.

I doubt AAM is following the above rule. Simply the AUM is too big. Imagine AUM $500m and 1% into 100 stocks. Minimum mkt cap for each stock will be $500m.
Mkt is surely more efficient at $500m than at $100m. Opportunity set surely smaller and more competition.

At bigger AUM, their old method may not work as well as when at small AUM.

Maybe should follow Walter Schloss. Keep AUM small and return excess profit.

hi opmi,
The ST article actually stated they have 633 stocks! So with their latest AUM of 460mil, that goes to 460/633mil --> 0.73mil per stock (on average).

At 633 stocks (wow!), they probably will do fine even at a billion dollars. Only doesn't work if add another zero to that.

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06-07-2019, 11:03 AM.
Post: #153
RE: Teh Hooi Leng calls it a day (Aggregate Asset Management)
With 633 stocks, I guess they must have relaxed their quantitative criteria and/or qualitative criteria or went outside their initial geographical coverage.

Guess it is a different animal from the one their earlier track record was based on.

How to cover 633 stocks....haha
=========== Signature ===========
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster

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13-07-2019, 10:00 AM.
Post: #154
RE: Teh Hooi Leng calls it a day (Aggregate Asset Management)
Which explains why they're hugging the index.

Once AUM gets huge, I guess the portfolio manager will need more WB-like type of stock selection skills to get above-average returns.

Graham-style investing is easier to implement for retailers, with more less-researched small caps within their reach.

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20-07-2019, 09:46 AM.
Post: #155
RE: Teh Hooi Leng calls it a day (Aggregate Asset Management)
I like this article written by Teh, published in today's BT:

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/investi...unknowable

I like her principle of basing investment decisions on their mathematical expectation.

And basing, in part, those mathematical expectations on history that is relevant to the investment.

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13-10-2019, 05:10 PM. (This post was last modified: 13-10-2019, 05:12 PM by dreamybear.)
Post: #156
RE: Teh Hooi Leng calls it a day (Aggregate Asset Management)
dreamybear also tends to form attachments to stocks that had previously done well for bear. Other than psychological effects the article mentioned, I think the situation has also changed with disruptors, near 0 interest rates, climate change etc. What works well in the past may not work well in the future.

At the same time, in this age of rapid technological evolution, I think we need to be more discerning and pro-active in monitoring the world news & how the current state of affairs affect our holdings.

----------------------------------------------

Beware of hidden or opportunity costs
Sat, Oct 12, 2019 - 5:50 AM

....The idea of hidden or opportunity costs is a timely reminder for me as well. Because of the uncertainties in the macro environment, the valuations of many Asian stocks are rather depressed currently. We are seeing a number of stocks that have even more compelling valuations than those we currently own.....

....For example, investors may form attachment to the stocks they already own, possibly because the stocks have done well in the past. In cases where stocks have done very well such that their current valuations are no longer cheap, then chances of them continuing to generate the returns chalked up in the past will be reduced.

On the flip side, if the stocks have not been doing well, there is fear of selling them now only to see them surge the next day, or the next week. In order to avert regret, many just do nothing.

How best then can we overcome these psychological barriers in order to construct an optimal portfolio?

For me, evidence- and rules-based approach work best. I need to see the evidence from empirical research that certain strategy, backed by sound fundamental reasoning, works......

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/investi...nity-costs

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