The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

[AlphaQuant]

Bernanke only can prolong his QE until this August if i am not wrong. Then most probably a lady will take over. So maybe the next phase of "Roller Coaster Ride" will begin. i wish i could know what the lady going to do next. Who knows? Who can tell? God bless us all. (Sorry, my apology to all non-believers).

Yellen is supposedly even more dovish than Ben

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100618634

[evolance]

Actually, I have been waiting for this sales for a long time... but its not sales time yet in my opinion... Many have run up too high, but I am reallly drooling at LKH ...

No offence, value investors are not afraid of crash, think most forummers are looking forward to it, think only with multiple crashes or whammies will value investors get shaken

Newbie Qn, dun think I am ever a true value investor, but would like to understand what is perception of a true value investor invest though...

Say Value Investor A bought ABC Stock at $0.70, abt 30% margin of safety.
ABC stock performed better than expected and price rose to $1.50 abt X years and intrinsic value rose $1.10 from $1.

Then something simliar to today happened, share price dropped drastically, and the value investor have some savings.

1. He sell his existing share to realise some profit in anticipations that the share will drop to some margin of safety.

2. He wait for the share price to drop til his margin of safety $0.70-$0.80 (forgoing the current profit from current holdings) and enter his addition savings

If he chose 1, is he still consider Value Investor?

[kelvesy]

In my limited knowledge,

A value investor would only sell when valuations of a stock has gone too high - to the extent that it is hard to justify.

A value investor would only buy when there is a margin of safety (proposed by Ben Graham/David Dodd) or buy at less than intrinsic value.

Given in this position, I would not do 1. Just wait for the counter to rebounce back. There are commission charges which eat into your profit.

[evolance]

hope everyone have a good long weekend
next week will be the real show, see baby bear can be tamed or not

be monitoring tonite and tmr DJI and S&P movement, hope to have some direction next week whether to add some or pull out...

[CityFarmer]

Actually, I have been waiting for this sales for a long time... but its not sales time yet in my opinion... Many have run up too high, but I am reallly drooling at LKH ...

No offence, value investors are not afraid of crash, think most forummers are looking forward to it, think only with multiple crashes or whammies will value investors get shaken

Newbie Qn, dun think I am ever a true value investor, but would like to understand what is perception of a true value investor invest though...

Say Value Investor A bought ABC Stock at $0.70, abt 30% margin of safety.
ABC stock performed better than expected and price rose to $1.50 abt X years and intrinsic value rose $1.10 from $1.

Then something simliar to today happened, share price dropped drastically, and the value investor have some savings.

1. He sell his existing share to realise some profit in anticipations that the share will drop to some margin of safety.

2. He wait for the share price to drop til his margin of safety $0.70-$0.80 (forgoing the current profit from current holdings) and enter his addition savings

If he chose 1, is he still consider Value Investor?

The question shouldn't be "value investor" or not, but which is the "safer" way?

IMO, timing the market (or anticipation that share price will drop) is always more riskier.

[Temperament]

Bernanke only can prolong his QE until this August if i am not wrong. Then most probably a lady will take over. So maybe the next phase of "Roller Coaster Ride" will begin. i wish i could know what the lady going to do next. Who knows? Who can tell? God bless us all. (Sorry, my apology to all non-believers).

Yellen is supposedly even more dovish than Ben

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100618634

Yes of course! Will Bernanke support her for taking over his position if she is not? But when she is really in control, situations may force her to make a U-Turn. Never says never.

[Greenrookie]

Actually, I have been waiting for this sales for a long time... but its not sales time yet in my opinion... Many have run up too high, but I am reallly drooling at LKH ...

No offence, value investors are not afraid of crash, think most forummers are looking forward to it, think only with multiple crashes or whammies will value investors get shaken

Newbie Qn, dun think I am ever a true value investor, but would like to understand what is perception of a true value investor invest though...

Say Value Investor A bought ABC Stock at $0.70, abt 30% margin of safety.
ABC stock performed better than expected and price rose to $1.50 abt X years and intrinsic value rose $1.10 from $1.

Then something simliar to today happened, share price dropped drastically, and the value investor have some savings.

1. He sell his existing share to realise some profit in anticipations that the share will drop to some margin of safety.

2. He wait for the share price to drop til his margin of safety $0.70-$0.80 (forgoing the current profit from current holdings) and enter his addition savings

If he chose 1, is he still consider Value Investor?

Hehe...

I would properly have choose 1... I "fake" investor, don't even dare to use "value"... If I value ABC at $1 and I buy at 0.7, I will sell at 1.1, if

1) I still value it at $1 (risk - reward profile no good)
2) If there is better opportunties...

I will only hold ABC if it pays good dividends and yield and TINA, and I am very confident of its longer terms prospect, then I will go for 2).. nonetheless, if ABC goes fr 0.7 to 1.5, i would have reduce some holdings of it along the way from $1 upwards

Just my 2 cents

[evolance]

In my limited knowledge,

A value investor would only sell when valuations of a stock has gone too high - to the extent that it is hard to justify.

A value investor would only buy when there is a margin of safety (proposed by Ben Graham/David Dodd) or buy at less than intrinsic value.

Given in this position, I would not do 1. Just wait for the counter to rebounce back. There are commission charges which eat into your profit.

Thks..now I roughly understand what Greenrookie meant when he mentioned most forumers looking forward, cos Value Investors have little intention to sell in a bear market, even though it may mean forgoing previous paper gains in bull...
The reason I ask is cos there is a potential loss of profit, I tot logically, shd set some margin of profit too...
...ie.. if ur profit margin drop til 20% only, sell liao... Not sure this type of investor call what...

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I will only hold ABC if it pays good dividends and yield and TINA, and I am very confident of its longer terms prospect, then I will go for 2).. nonetheless, if ABC goes fr 0.7 to 1.5, i would have reduce some holdings of it along the way from $1 upwards

Just my 2 cents

Ya...I missed out the qualitative aspects of value investing in my hypothesis...hahaaa...paiseh...cant tink str8 today...jus had an leg operation after being hit by a bear...

[Temperament]

Actually, I have been waiting for this sales for a long time... but its not sales time yet in my opinion... Many have run up too high, but I am reallly drooling at LKH ...

No offence, value investors are not afraid of crash, think most forummers are looking forward to it, think only with multiple crashes or whammies will value investors get shaken

Newbie Qn, dun think I am ever a true value investor, but would like to understand what is perception of a true value investor invest though...

Say Value Investor A bought ABC Stock at $0.70, abt 30% margin of safety.
ABC stock performed better than expected and price rose to $1.50 abt X years and intrinsic value rose $1.10 from $1.

Then something simliar to today happened, share price dropped drastically, and the value investor have some savings.

1. He sell his existing share to realise some profit in anticipations that the share will drop to some margin of safety.

2. He wait for the share price to drop til his margin of safety $0.70-$0.80 (forgoing the current profit from current holdings) and enter his addition savings

If he chose 1, is he still consider Value Investor?

Hehe...

I would properly have choose 1... I "fake" investor, don't even dare to use "value"... If I value ABC at $1 and I buy at 0.7, I will sell at 1.1, if

1) I still value it at $1 (risk - reward profile no good)
2) If there is better opportunties...

I will only hold ABC if it pays good dividends and yield and TINA, and I am very confident of its longer terms prospect, then I will go for 2).. nonetheless, if ABC goes fr 0.7 to 1.5, i would have reduce some holdings of it along the way from $1 upwards

Just my 2 cents

i have sold Wing Tai @ $2.27 a week or more ago. i still have SGX and Singtel. Even if i chicken out and sold now , they are still quite profitable.
If i have to keep them, it's O. K. Because i can live with it because of the YOC and the bank's IR is sucking eggs. But i intend to sell them if Market still intact for a bit longer. i think the market will linger on for a while. My 2 cents.

[paullow]

the fact that there appears so much discussion when sti slump 60points shows that pple are getting concerned. will i lose my profits? shd i cut loss wat if it falls further?
at a high sti 3450, a slump of 1%+ imo dun worry.
even a loss, its only a paper loss. if one lose sleep to try to decipher wat might happen in the weeks ahead, then i think better to think twice abt investing in the first place.
i myself place quality of life as first place. money 2nd.
remember health first. then wealth. moreover we are talking of paper wealth.

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losing sleep. losing concentration at work. venting fustrations of losses at loved ones.
is it worth it?