UMS Holdings

Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
#71
(01-08-2012, 06:01 PM)Zelphon Wrote: To know whether UMS is experiencing increase revenue or not..
Just pop down to APPLIED MATERIALS MFG plant in Changi on a weekly basis...

Observer the no. of crates there..
More crates observed near the loading/unloading bay = MORE FACTORY ACTIVITY = MORE SALES la..

Can't reveal which company i worked for but that is how we insiders gauge whether how my company is doing...

LOL...

"The company (Applied Material) revised its calendar year 2012 industry forecast for wafer fab equipment spending to $30 to $33 billion, compared to its previous expectation of $32 to $35 billion, in line with the market changes"

http://www.appliedmaterials.com/newsroom...ent-demand

I would rather rely on this official channel to gauge the fab equipment sales of Applied Materials, which I think has less credibility and reliability issues than your method of counting crates.
Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
Reply
#72
(02-08-2012, 09:03 AM)Boon Wrote:
(01-08-2012, 06:01 PM)Zelphon Wrote: To know whether UMS is experiencing increase revenue or not..
Just pop down to APPLIED MATERIALS MFG plant in Changi on a weekly basis...

Observer the no. of crates there..
More crates observed near the loading/unloading bay = MORE FACTORY ACTIVITY = MORE SALES la..

Can't reveal which company i worked for but that is how we insiders gauge whether how my company is doing...

LOL...

"The company (Applied Material) revised its calendar year 2012 industry forecast for wafer fab equipment spending to $30 to $33 billion, compared to its previous expectation of $32 to $35 billion, in line with the market changes"

http://www.appliedmaterials.com/newsroom...ent-demand

I would rather rely on this official channel to gauge the fab equipment sales of Applied Materials, which I think has less credibility and reliability issues than your method of counting crates.

I had the opportunity to work in a zipper factory (assemby zips) in my younger days. Altho' biz wasn't that good, they do rx lots of crates which I'd assumed to be zipper parts. I always wondered why as it doesn't seem to relate to the actual biz vol, perhaps they were taking advantage of an over supply situation to stock up on inventory. One fine day, when they were very short handed and they'd deemed me to be trust worthy, I was roped in to help with the crates. When I opened them, I was very surprised not to find zipper parts but rather, almost anything else but zipper parts! Apparently, the enterprising owner also has a lot of other side biz...Don't ask me if it was legal, I was only a kid then..Tongue

I have some other examples from working life in MNC. But, I won't be posting here as till today, I don't know whether those numerous crates of stuff that came in to be written off and moved out to be disposed is right or not...

Moral of the story... What you see may not be what you think...The biz world out there is a lot more complicated than you think..Rolleyes

PS. It may work for F&B / Retail type of biz tho' Cool
Luck & Fortune Favours those who are Prepared & Decisive when Opportunity Knocks
------------ 知己知彼 ,百战不殆 ;不知彼 ,不知己 ,每战必殆 ------------
Reply
#73
KopiKat Wrote:Moral of the story... What you see may not be what you think...The biz world out there is a lot more complicated than you think..

PS. It may work for F&B / Retail type of biz tho'

Businesses that deal in cash, like restaurants, are attractive for money launderers as income tax is paid based on estimates, making it easy to inflate the income by including the illicit cash. Once taxed, the money becomes traceable and legal. If you buy a food court and hire the stall owners yourself instead of charging them rent, you can probably launder a couple of million dollars a year. Own a bunch of such food courts and you'll be set.

Other cash-type businesses include hairdressing salons and convenience stores. Spas may be harder because the more expensive beauty packages may compel customers to ask for receipts, which makes money laundering harder. But then you also need to fake fewer customers, so maybe it works out.

Even in industrial-type B2B companies, fully depreciated items often still have value e.g. used vehicles and vessels. They may be carried at only $1 and can be written off/disposed, and the auditors may not notice. But the person(s) disposing of such items may be collecting much more than $1...
---
I do not give stock tips. So please do not ask, because you shall not receive.
Reply
#74
(02-08-2012, 09:54 AM)d.o.g. Wrote: Even in industrial-type B2B companies, fully depreciated items often still have value e.g. used vehicles and vessels. They may be carried at only $1 and can be written off/disposed, and the auditors may not notice. But the person(s) disposing of such items may be collecting much more than $1...

In the semicon biz, where technology changes very rapidly, the stocks loses it's value very fast. Usually, MNCs (who are also manufacturers of the ICs) sales office will write-off and scrap it. I think many has a policy not to resell it to the retail market or even small time biz. Somehow, many of these scrapped parts may rise from the ashes.. like a Phoenix...I always wondered how many of Sim Lim Towers shops (even the ones who managed to get listed) get their parts...Rolleyes
Luck & Fortune Favours those who are Prepared & Decisive when Opportunity Knocks
------------ 知己知彼 ,百战不殆 ;不知彼 ,不知己 ,每战必殆 ------------
Reply
#75
A few breakthrough from Appled Materials in fab equipment technology
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Applied Materials Introduces Breakthrough Etch Technology for the Terabit Era
June 27, 2012

•Applied Centura Avatar system overcomes challenges to etching new 3D NAND Flash chips
•Etches 80:1 aspect ratio features, as well as structures with greatly varying depths, in a single process
•More than 30 chambers already shipped to customers

SANTA CLARA, Calif., June 27, 2012 - Applied Materials, Inc. today advanced the state of the art in etch technology with the launch of the Applied Centura® AvatarTM dielectric etch system. This breakthrough system is designed to solve one of the most demanding challenges in creating the three-dimensional (3D) memory architectures that deliver the high-density, terabit storage capability required for tomorrow's data-intensive mobile devices.

"With the Avatar system, we've capitalized on our leadership in plasma technology to address the unmet challenges of fabricating three-dimensional memory structures that require the etching of deep features in complex multi-layer material stacks," said Dr. Prabu Raja, vice president and general manager of Applied's Etch business group. "Customers are very enthusiastic about the breakthrough capabilities of this new system. We have already shipped more than 30 chambers to multiple customers for critical applications including the pilot production of future chips."

Newly designed from the ground up, the Avatar system etches the deep, narrow features that are a hallmark of 3D NAND memory arrays. These 3D arrays represent an exciting new type of Flash device in which as many as 64 layers of memory cells are built up vertically to create extraordinary bit density in a small area.

The Avatar system can etch holes and trenches in complex film stacks with depth to width aspect ratios of up to 80:1. To illustrate this proportion, the aspect ratio of the Washington Monument is just 10:1. In addition, the system enables the simultaneous and precise etching of features with greatly varying depths - which is critical to fabricating the "staircase" contact structures that connect each layer of memory cells to the outside world.

http://www.appliedmaterials.com/newsroom...erabit-era

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Applied Materials' Unique UVision5 System Delivers World-Class Pattern Monitoring for Sub-20nm Era
July 09, 2012

•DUV laser, brightfield and greyfield technologies deliver up to twice the light to the wafer for unmatched detection sensitivity
•Proprietary image processing algorithms cut noise by 50% to capture defects on dense features
•Tool of record at leading foundries and logic fabs for 2Xnm node and beyond

SANTA CLARA, Calif., July 9, 2012 - Applied Materials, Inc. today unveiled its Applied UVision® 5 wafer inspection system for detecting defects in the critical patterning layers of logic devices at the sub-20nm node. The system's deep ultra-violet (DUV) laser and simultaneous brightfield and greyfield light collection capabilities deliver up to double the light intensity to the wafer over previous tools, enabling the UVision 5 system to capture up to twice the number of killer defects. This unmatched sensitivity allows semiconductor manufacturers to achieve more stable and robust control over the fabrication of their smallest circuit features.

"With each advance in technology node, minute imperfections that could previously be ignored suddenly become potential 'killer' defects. Innovations in the UVision 5 system are enabling chipmakers to find and characterize these ultra-small defects to boost yield and reduce cycle time," said Itai Rosenfeld, corporate vice president and general manager of Applied's Process Diagnostics and Control business unit.

"We are excited about the momentum the UVision5 tool has achieved with customers. We've had repeat orders for the system and it is already tool of record at multiple leading logic and foundry manufacturers for 2Xnm device production," added Rosenfeld.

The UVision 5 system's powerful optical system provides up to twice the light density to the wafer and, using its proprietary collection optic path, accumulates up to 30% more scattered light than its predecessor. This feature, combined with new, proprietary image processing algorithms that reduce wafer-induced noise by up to 50%, boost the system's detection capabilities for critical monitoring applications, such as ArF immersion lithography, double and quad patterning and EUVL layers.

For foundry customers, the UVision 5 system introduces compelling time-saving innovations that speed the daunting task of rapidly ramping production of thousands of new chip designs each year. Seamless, "hands-free" integration with Applied's industry-standard SEMVision® G5 defect review system creates the industry's leading fully-integrated defect inspection and review solution, offering chipmakers the fastest, most accurate path from data to information. In addition, the system can utilize design information for building layout data which can improve defect capture rate and save up to 15 hours of operator time per inspection recipe.

http://www.appliedmaterials.com/newsroom...ring-sub-2

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Applied Materials Solves Critical Interconnect Challenge with Breakthrough Flowable Copper Technology
July 10, 2012

•Revolutionary method of depositing the vital wiring seed layer has no foreseeable node limit
•Tool of record at leading chipmakers; more than 30 chambers shipped
•New system introduced in live webcast from Semicon West today at 8:00am PDT

SANTA CLARA, Calif., July 10, 2012 - Applied Materials, Inc. today pushed the boundaries of interconnect technology, the pathways that connect the billions of transistors on a chip, with the announcement of its Applied Endura® AmberTM PVD system. Featuring revolutionary copper reflow technology, the Amber system is the only single-chamber solution proven to enable void-free copper structures at the 1Xnm node - a critical challenge in the manufacturing of advanced logic and memory devices.

"The Applied Endura Amber system delivers a breakthrough solution for scaling interconnects beyond the 20nm node while maintaining good production yields," said Sundar Ramamurthy, vice president and general manager of Applied's Metal Deposition Products business unit. "Applied has extended its leading PVD technology with a unique system that achieves rapid, void-free fill of these structures at virtually any device node. We're seeing strong customer momentum for the Amber system with more than 30 chambers already in the field. Systems are already qualified as tool of record at leading logic and memory device manufacturers."

Today's high-density microchips feature complex, multilevel networks with more than 60 miles of copper wiring and as many as 10 billion vertical connections, or vias, between layers. Moving forward, these numbers will significantly increase, with interconnect structures becoming much narrower and deeper, making it extremely difficult for conventional technologies to completely and reliably fill the structure with copper. At the 1Xnm node, this is a major concern, since a single void can render the chip useless.

Applied's Amber copper reflow technology solves this critical challenge by turning the small size of these features from a problem to an advantage. Using capillary action, the deposited copper is drawn into even the smallest features, filling from the bottom upwards to enable rapid, void-free fill from the smallest to the largest features on any die layout.

The Amber system is built on the innovations pioneered with the highly-successful Applied Endura CuBS RFX PVD system. The CuBS RFX system's unique selective PVD technology provides the precise deposition profile - thicker at the bottom and no copper overhang - that is essential for the subsequent reflow process.

http://www.appliedmaterials.com/newsroom...ble-copper-
Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
Reply
#76
Perhaps it's the curse of having worked in this industry, it's hard to remove from my head that this is a very massively complicated industry where few are making $$ at this stage of their life cycle.

But, take a look at the Pwc report posted by Boon. From pg 55, the different sub-Industry players from IC IDM, IC IDM, Equipment, Memory IDM, Foundries, Assembly & Test which spans the entire world. The Semicon Industry is also very much driven by the Electronics Industry of Set Makers where the mass volumes come from Computer, Telecom (hp), Comsumers (CTV, Stereo, Fridge, Aircon,..), Automotives,... each of which there're different dominant players. That's why I ever mentioned it's a humongous task to try to even understand..

Now, look at Fig 12 of the same report,

[Image: zvy4r9.jpg]

Look at the EBIT for the past 10 years. Scary or not? That's why I also mentioned it'd be better to focus on the Leaders who're more likely than not, the ones who're in the MAX category which'll make $$ more often than losses.

The other possibility would be the niche players. In such a case, yes, perhaps UMS may fall into this category. The biz is not that lucrative or huge, such that it becomes a natural barrier to other bigger players. But, we have to convince ourself of this by doing our own research. Further, I think we may not need to do the massive job of trying to undertand how the whole Industry works. Just focus on their Customers + Immediate competitors + How well they can diversify to other areas of Precision Engineering + How committed their Key Managers are,.. Call me lazy! Tongue

IMO, if I were to really really go back and try to get up to date again with the Industry (Semicon + Electronics), I think it may be much more rewarding to look for cos., like Qualcomm, before their products gets massively adopted and you start to read about shortages.. A happy problem for them, actually..Tongue
Luck & Fortune Favours those who are Prepared & Decisive when Opportunity Knocks
------------ 知己知彼 ,百战不殆 ;不知彼 ,不知己 ,每战必殆 ------------
Reply
#77
Applied Materials operates in four reportable segments:
a) Silicon Systems Group, (Applied’s Silicon Systems Group segment develops, manufactures and sells a wide range of manufacturing equipment used to fabricate semiconductor chips)
b) Applied Global Services,
c) Display, and
d) Energy and Environmental Solutions.

I tried to track the revenue of UMS to that of Silicon System Group (SSG) from 2009 to 1Q2012, and they are so closely correlated, in good time and bad time, incredible! See attached Excel. File for detail (Please correct me if there is any mistake)

Ratio of revenue of UMS to SSG:

1.9% (2009)

1.9% (2010)

1.7% (2011)

1.9% (1Q-2012)

Can one rely on this relationship to predict 2Q-2012 revenue for UMS, given that the revenue of SSG for 2Q-2012 is already known? Not likely, I guess !


Attached Files
.xls   UMS_Boon_20120802_.xls (Size: 24 KB / Downloads: 8)
Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
Reply
#78
KopiKat Wrote:I think many has a policy not to resell it to the retail market or even small time biz. Somehow, many of these scrapped parts may rise from the ashes.. like a Phoenix

Remember Citiraya? They were paid to destroy the electronics they received. Instead they sold them off for yet more money. US$51m in 2 years. Ng Teck Lee is still at large.
---
I do not give stock tips. So please do not ask, because you shall not receive.
Reply
#79
(30-07-2012, 11:59 PM)KopiKat Wrote: Boon,

Thanks for the link. Very informative, brings back a lot of fond memories and nightmares as I was in this industry for almost my entire working life...Big Grin
I'd certainly like to hear your comments after you'd read the above report, pertaining to the industry and perhaps, how it relate to UMS.

Hi KopiKat,

Quote from page 12 of the report:

“We believe the semiconductor industry will continue to grow during the next few years, though at a slower pace than in previous years. In our analysis, we do not assume another economic downturn, despite current issues in the US and European Union. We further believe that scaling down of semiconductor feature sizes will continue and that technological progress will sustain its high pace. We do not expect substantial change within the next few years.”

In the above paragraph, 3 assumptions have been made:

1) The semiconductor industry will continue to grow during the next few years, though at a slower pace than in the previous years.

2) Do not assume another economic downturn

3) The scaling down of semiconductor feature sizes will continue and that technological progress will sustain its high pace.

I think, for 1) to happen, 2) and 3) are the pre-conditions.

If all 1), 2) and 3) are true, then the semiconductor industry PIE will get bigger as projected in the report, the next step then is to look at the implications for various players along the value chain. (To be continued)

P/S: There is also a lot to discuss about on what if assumption 2) and/or 3) does not hold.
Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
Reply
#80
(02-08-2012, 10:59 PM)Boon Wrote: If all 1), 2) and 3) are true, then the semiconductor industry PIE will get bigger as projected in the report, the next step then is to look at the implications for various players along the value chain. (To be continued)

The 'wet blanket' in me is immediately reminded of what Warren Buffett wrote in his 2007 letter to shareholders,

“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money.....

Oops.. he was talking about Airlines..
But I do see a lot of similarity...
Luck & Fortune Favours those who are Prepared & Decisive when Opportunity Knocks
------------ 知己知彼 ,百战不殆 ;不知彼 ,不知己 ,每战必殆 ------------
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 5 Guest(s)