The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

[Behappyalways]

Debt crisis: Europe's democracies must not subcontract their destiny to the Bundebank
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comme...ebank.html

[arthur]

Another couple of weeks before the 1H 2012 of this thread title effectively runs out.
Now allow me to share a thought which came to my mind.

For effectively this half century, are we witnessing the flow of liquidity through different asset classes at different geographical locations?

Let's start from 1970s, the oil spike, that literally hobbles the global economy along. Was the bulk of liquidity there?
Thereafter, the oil price went down drastically, and the Japanese economy boomed in the 80s-early 90s. Was the bulk of liquidity there?
Following on, Japan went into a deflationary cycle and still has not recovered. However the TMT craze from the mid 90s in the States propelled many to be dot.com millionaires and burst even more dreams by early 2000s. Did the liquidity flowed there instead?
From the ashes, the commodities phoneix arose, and we witness the surge in commodities as well as the rise of BRIC, esp. China. Did the liquidity ended up there?
08 Great Financial Crisis arrived. All assets collapsed but rebounded. However, some asset classes were even better than before. The real estate, esp in Asia. Is the liquidity right with us now?

What is the point of writing a hypothetical assumption for the past half century? Did I just had my dinner and having nothing to do, thus brushing up my writing skills by writing another hypothetical end of times story again?

No. I wrote this to show something to everyone. That global liquidity rush will always be there, and it will enter quick but withdraw even quicker.
If you have millions to spare, or billions to waste (eg. Temasek, GIC) it is fine to anyhow speculate. Identification of which asset class to bet on will give you the best bang for buck, but protection of one's capital must always be utmost priority.

Many will have vested interests in certain asset classes and so do I. Some of us are swayed by emotions bcos of what we owned. Asset class trend do tend to stay for quite awhile. Witness the years it took for global liquidity to flow from one class to another.
And lastly, there's only one Warren Buffet and dun think just because you own 4 copies of his mentor's Security Analysis means you are as good as him.

Cheers.
(By the way, if you have any vested interests and felt that I'm making you feeling jittery, my apology. Just dun act all excited pls.)

[Jared Seah]

A very timely reminder that we got only 3 more weeks for the doom's day prediction to come (or whimper out).

If I take STI 3000 as a recent top (I like round numbers; easier mental math):

STI 2700 is "only" a 10% technical correction (It's only a scratch wound)

STI 2400 is a 20% bear market (OK, can I scream now? Ouch ouch!)

STI below 2000 (where's the bloody fire exit?)

A lot of "value" investors think they know intrinsic value, but its the price you have paid that determines whether it's a scratch or a mortal wound

[Drizzt]

i take it u are 100% in cash.

[Behappyalways]

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent -John Maynard Keynes


the start of the 'rot/crash' might have started much earlier than June 2012. Yes much earlier...we are slowly moving towards the abyss with bear rallies planting hopes and optimism.....I was reading an article earlier and it asked a question....what are the Europe's plans to get out of this abyss......think about it....no plans yet....just band aid at the moment at where it hurts....so after the initial euphoria....people will realise nothing has change and that countries like Spain and Italy actually get into more and more debts with a smaller economy and the situation is actually getting worse and worse....and then another big fall in stock market and then another band aid to stop the rot......

hence no concrete plans no real recovery .....

[Musicwhiz]

Thanks for the analysis.

I don't take a view on markets. For me, I just keep an eye on valuations. If they are attractive, I will deploy my capital. So far it's been a reasonable long wait but I can always wait some more, haha!

[Temperament]

A very timely reminder that we got only 3 more weeks for the doom's day prediction to come (or whimper out).

If I take STI 3000 as a recent top (I like round numbers; easier mental math):

STI 2700 is "only" a 10% technical correction (It's only a scratch wound)

STI 2400 is a 20% bear market (OK, can I scream now? Ouch ouch!)

STI below 2000 (where's the bloody fire exit?)

A lot of "value" investors think they know intrinsic value, but its the price you have paid that determines whether it's a scratch or a mortal wound

I can empathize with you. What ever style of investment you adopt in the end it is really "educated intelligence" (Sorli, this is my thinking only. No offence to anyone). The price (value) you paid is the most important besides the company you choose. The time you choose to pay maybe as important too. (Even WB thinks and says so) IMHO.

[Jared Seah]

I am 50% vested in equities since I am confused. This way I am always half right (or wrong) when the market turns.

Shorted the SIMSCI since March 12 and rolling-over the contracts each month as hedge. I never good at market timing.

Also vested in some other asset classes that hopefully will go in the opposite direction if the market really tanks below 2000. OK, call me a polygamist!

I am betting 2012 will not be a crash. There's still one cho cho train ride up before the year ends. Me and my delusions.

2013 is another story...

Curse of a macro guy. I just can't do up-skirt. Opps! I meant do bottom-up. Blush blush.

[Behappyalways]

Because the bailout money takes on the position of preferred creditor, it subordinates other bondholders, thereby making it even harder to raise money from the capital markets.

Also stressed to virtual breaking point, Italy, becomes liable for some 17.9pc of the cross guarantees, raising the absurd spectacle of Italy borrowing at 5pc to lend to the Spanish banking system at 3pc.


This latest euro fix will come apart in less than a month
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comme...month.html

[old friend]

during 1998 Asia Financial Crisis, our housing loan rates ever shoot up above 10%.....

[Image: chart.png?s=sibcon&d1=19880101&d2=20120630]

there was also a spike to 20% Jan 1990 - wonder what was that all about?

that could be due to the 1st Gulf war?