The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

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The word crash means to break or fall to pieces with noise. But applying to the stock market is sometimes different. A stock market crash can be very sudden; making a lot of noises. It can also be drifting so quitely and slowly southwards that before everyone knows it, someone declare the market is already in the bear territory.
If you ask me, a sudden market crash will cause a lot of people's sufferings but it's also present an opportunity for those who dare to take the risks. Who have deep pockets. Who after buying can wait for a long long time(if necessary) for the next cycle of mini to Big Bull.

So may i share how to buy by Jamie E. Smith:-

HOW MUCH TO INVEST
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH
"There are many different and contrasting views about whether it is better to invest a little and often, or invest larger sums occasionally. I think you should aim to do both differentially base on the state of the market at any given point. Once again, it is a matter for your personal judgment. Nobody can tell you or predict how you should behave in this context.
Investing a little and often means that you limit your exposure to market fluctuations and therefore you manage risk. Investing aggressively when a special opportunity arises, such as Harley Davidson example, makes sense, so that the more you take advantage of a situation like that, the more your returns are likely to be if you get it right. So, in summary, invest a little and often, and invest heavily rarely and intelligently. Taking both approaches is the most likely to provide you with the best returns overall and in the long run".

Unquote:
The author waited ( if i still remember) more than 5 years to invest in Harley Davison during the last bear Market.
WB:-

1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.

Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.

NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
Thanks to Temperament for sharing!

From the books I read,
1. "investing a little and often" vs. "investing a lot rarely" -- is about "time diversification", in case you make the wrong call.
2. "buying an index fund e.g. ETF STI" vs. "buying a specific counter" -- is about "security diversification", again in case you make the wrong call.

The amount you commit should be in correct proportion to your ability (to time correctly in 1., to select the right company in 2.). It should not depend on "how confident" you are.

But from my observation over the years, way too many investors are overconfident. (Either that or they just like to "gamble".) Not everyone is Warren Buffett. If you read the Snowball, you would know how much time he spent reading reports. Many of us would be better off buying a low cost index fund, via regular saving plan.
Who knows. Maybe the coming crash is not due to Euro Zone problems but due to repeat of SARs. Already, 1 person in ShenZhen contracted birdie flu. (Only 1 as reported by China how true?). I am 100% sure, Spore with our open door policy will also get it. I sure hope it wont happen. Because if it does, many more pp will die compared to during 2003 as our population has exploded compared to 2003.
Agreed. I also think China. Their leaders also said this dragon year very difficult year.

They have huge reserves but too many problems. Country too big. Excess capacity from factories to real estates.

Everybody may sell before Chinese New Year Holidays. Shares may go down another 20 %. Will that affect Singapore ?Dodgy
China Property Malaise Spreads to Furnishings
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424..._pageone_2


Europe's ticking time bomb: Credit default swaps
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/0...id=SF_F_LN


Europe at the Brink - A WSJ Documentary
http://online.wsj.com/video/europe-at-th...A8BFA.html


All I Want to do is Retire - 20 Years on Wall Street
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVWB9SnQl...r_embedded
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/
We should find a job/career we won't want to retire from. After all, we spend most of our (awake) hours working. If we enjoy our work, we will have happiness. Was it really Confucius who said, "find a job you like, and you don't have to 'work' a single day in your life..."?
almost everyone is seeing a coming crash but is hoping that the crash to below STI 2000 will be delayed to year 2013. Let's see.

What would your entry point be? Or would it be stock - dependent (i.e. intrinsic value - price >= safety margin) ?

As an "unintelligent investor" (who buys the whole buckets of 'don't-know-whats'), I only use my guts to feel if all bad news are out (more or less), and if things can only get better from a point, before I start dumping.

And of course, I dump in thirds, in case I am wrong with the timing.

I am also tempted to consider private property, having saved enough for the 'bad-time-price' downpayment.
Jim Rogers: 'Feel Better' in 2012, 'Suffer' in 2013
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000065403


Liquidity won't heal Europe's debt woes
http://www.asianewsnet.net/home/news.php?id=25907&sec=3


Dow rings in 2012 with a golden cross
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2012/...den-cross/


(Feel better in 2012, suffer in 2013....plus 2014, 2015.....looks probable with stock market and inflation rising rapidly in 2012. I am kinda bullish for 1Q2012 and feel that 'coming crash' might be 'enlarged' but postponed and certainly not averted.....)
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/
I really hope you are right about the enlarged (can buy cheaper, have more choices...), postponed (can save more cash, have more time to analyse...) crash.

What I don't want to see is everything swept under the carpet (QE3, QE4 ...) and the bull rages on.


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