Risk premia or behavioral craziness?:

[Temperament]

The way I look at it is simple: Does anyone in this fundy forum know what is the EXACT value of a stock?

We live in an uncertain world but we want to hide in comfort of certainty, that the sun always rises or the market is perfect. If people like us don't know the exact value of a stock, how can the mass market be perfect?

The market psyche is as perfect as those who queue up to buy nice food... because if there is a queue it must be nice It is not an unreasonable assumption, but it is a heuristic cue (pun intended). Many claim markets are perfect because when a sudden event happen, usually the stocks react correctly. I would argue because fundy people move in first and the rest came to "queue". This behavior however works both ways as in Blumont.

In truth technical analysts are more perfect market ideology than us. They believe market is perfect and only look at behaviors. We believe markets are imperfect and hence one day the true fundy value will be realised

Short term voting machine and a long term weighing machine is the most apt description of the market that I have heard.

Well said.
i think you have put it so much easier for layman or NEWBIE to grasp the meaning of investing in the market.